Tornado Warning 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous Hurricane Florence is just east of Wilmington and is
forecast to make landfall near there this morning. Florence
will continue to bring a prolonged period of significant and
life threatening impacts across eastern North Carolina. The
remnants of the system will lift north into the Ohio Valley
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 4 am Fri...Heavy rainfall, strong winds and severe storm
surge will continue over the CWA as Hurricane Florence slowly
works its way west toward the coast, with anticipated landfall
in the Wilmington area this morning. Significant life
threatening impacts will continue as Hurricane Florence
continues to slowly move along the southeast North Carolina
coastline. Extremely heavy rainfall leading to catastrophic
flooding, storm surge, and damaging winds will continue. See
HLSMHX for more information on expected impacts from Florence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 4 am Fri...Florence will continue moving slowly west,
with only slow improvement in overall conditions in the forecast
area. Very heavy rain will cont over the SW tier cont the
threat for severe flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Hurricane Florence is forecast to very
slowly move WSW into SC Sat. The slow motion will keep threat
for very heavy rain over the srn tier with cont threat of
catastrophic flash flooding with storm total rainfall reaching
20 to 30 inches in spots. The cont gusty SE winds will also cont
the threat for storm surge flooding...espcly over the srn
coast, Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as
adjacent streams and bays.

For more details on the potentially serious impacts to Eastern
NC, please take a look at our latest storm briefing by copy and
pasting this url:

https:/www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

Sunday through Wed...Florence is expected to eventually drift
away from the region early next week. There remains much
uncertainty to where Florence will move, and where any residual
associated organized rainfall will occur. Have cont likely pops
Sunday then cont broad high chance PoPs for the area into Wed.
High temps look to be near normal again with lots of clouds
around with highs in the 80s, and lows will be mostly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 4 am Fri...MVFR/IFR ceilings, very strong gusty winds and
heavy rain bands through the short term. The winds and the
visibility/ceiling restrictions will continue to create
extremely hazardous aviation conditions.

Long Term /Fri night through Monday/...
As of 4 am Thu...Fri night into Saturday, there will likely be
a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions with numerous showers
and widely scattered thunderstorms will continue. For Sunday and
Mon will cont to have decent coverage of showers with bouts of
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 am Fri...Very dangerous marine conditions will continue
and all mariners should remain off the water through the short
term period as Hurricane Florence moves southwest of the area.

Long Term /Sat through Monday/...
As of 500 PM Tue...Tropical storm force winds finally expected
to end later Sat or Sat evening. SE winds are forecast to
subside to 15-20 kt Sun and Mon. Seas will remain very high
ranging from 9 to 16 feet Sat to 5 to 7 ft Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM Fri...Historic rainfall expected to cont in NC
with Hurricane Florence. The forward motion of Florence will
come to a crawl over the next 36 hours. This perilous track will
keep eastern NC under the potent moisture stream on the right
front quadrant of the storm. The long duration of this event
unlike previous storms of its magnitude will support record
rainfall amounts over portions of our area, most likely the
southern coastal counties where the rain bands will persist
longer. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 feet with locally higher
amounts are entirely probably given the storm track. The
gradient will be tight across the region with northern counties
likely seeing well less than foot of rainfall, especially the
northern Outer Banks. All locations will be vulnerable to flash
flooding, with catastrophic flooding likely in areas that
receive feet of rain. All rivers will be susceptible to major
flooding, though the devil is in the details for exact crests
and timing. For rivers in the southern coastal counties like
the New River, NE Cape Fear, and Trent River record flooding is
likely, surpassing levels reached by Hurricane Floyd in 1999. A
slight wobble to the right of the track or stalling of the storm
could push the risk for major river flooding a tier of counties
further north. Record flooding is currently forecasted for the
river forecast point in Chinquapin. Concern is high for evacuees
traveling back into the region next week at which time most
rivers should be experiencing flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-
     104.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA
HYDROLOGY...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
708 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-092>094-151115-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Jones-Craven-Pamlico-
708 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ079-090-091-151115-
Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
708 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ095-098-103-104-151115-
Carteret-Onslow-Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
708 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HURRICANE        1 NNW WILDWOOD          34.76N 76.83W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL THROUGH ROOF.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
929 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HURRICANE        3 NNW NEWPORT           34.83N 76.88W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF PARTIALLY TORN OFF, TREES DOWN IN YARD
            AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HURRICANE        WILDWOOD                34.74N 76.83W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ ***
            ROOF FELL IN HITTING PERSON ON THE HEAD, EMS
            DECLINED.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HURRICANE        1 WNW MOREHEAD CITY     34.74N 76.75W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE HAS GONE THROUGH ROOF, NO INJURIES.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HURRICANE        1 N NEWPORT             34.80N 76.86W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HURRICANE        MARSHALLBERG            34.72N 76.51W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURE DAMAGE, NO INJURIES, NO ONE
            TRAPPED.

&&

TS