Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous Hurricane Florence has slowed to a crawl less than 60
miles southeast of Cape Lookout. Florence is expected to
slowly track west, bringing a prolonged period of significant
and life threatening impacts across eastern North Carolina.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM Thursday...Just did a quick update to update
Tornado Watch to extend it until 7 AM tomorrow morning as small
tornado threat continues overnight. Otherwise no changes made to
the forecast for this update as strong winds, torrential rains
and surge continues with Hurricane Florence moves to the south
of the Crystal Coast.

Previous Discussion...
Heavy rainfall, strong winds and severe storm surge continues
over our CWA as Hurricane Florence slowly works its way west
toward the coast, with anticipated landfall in the Wilmington
area Friday morning. No changes needed to the current forecast
package. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph have been observed along
coastal areas, with winds expected to continue to steadily
increase as the core of the storm creeps toward the area. Though
the maximum winds associated with Florence have trended
downward over the past 24 hours, the wind field is becoming
larger and the impacts from the storm have not changed. PWATs
values near 2.5 inches and climbing, ample dynamic forcing, and
a very deep warm cloud layer will lead to the potential for
rainfall rates approaching 3 inches beginning this evening. See
HLSMHX for a complete rundown of the expected impacts from
Florence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Significant/life threatening impacts will
continue into Friday as Hurricane Florence continues to slowly
move along the southeastern North Carolina coastline. Extremely
heavy rainfall leading to catastrophic flooding, storm surge,
and damaging winds will continue Friday. See HLSMHX for more
information on expected impacts from Florence.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thu...Hurricane Florence is forecast to very
slowly move WSW into SC Sat. The slow motion will keep threat
for very heavy rain over the srn tier with cont threat of
catastrophic flash flooding with rainfall totals reaching 20 to
30 inches in spots. The cont strong winds will also cont the
threat for dangerous storm surge flooding...espcly over the srn
coast, Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as
adjacent streams and bays.

For more details on the potentially serious impacts to Eastern
NC, please take a look at our latest storm briefing by copy and
pasting this url:

https:/www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

Sunday through Wed...Florence is expected to eventually drift
away from the region early next week. There remains much
uncertainty to where Florence will move, and where any residual
associated organized rainfall will occur. Have cont likely pops
Sunday then cont broad high chance PoPs for the area into Wed.
High temps look to be near normal again with lots of clouds
around with highs in the 80s, and lows will be mostly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 640 PM Thursday...No changes to the current TAFs with
MVFR/IFR ceilings, very strong gusty winds and heavy rain bands.
The winds and the visibility/ceiling restrictions will continue
to create extremely hazardous aviation conditions.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 500 PM Wed...Thursday night into Saturday, there will
likely be a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions with the
arrival of Hurricane Florence. With strong winds expected, there
will be considerable hazards to flying, as well as very heavy
and prolonged rainfall. Scattered to numerous showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms will continue over the region through
Sunday producing sub-VFR conditions at times. Early next week
precipitation is expected to become more scattered in nature as
Florence moves away from the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 915 PM Thursday...Updated marine forecast early to include
updated tornado watch which will continue through the overnight
hours. Otherwise, no changes to the forecast. Very hazardous
marine conditions will continue and all mariners should remain
off the water through the short term period as dangerous
Hurricane Florence moves south of the area. Hurricane force
winds and seas as high as 30 feet can be expected overnight.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 500 PM Tue...Hurricane Force winds will continue over the
waters into Fri with tropical storm force winds expected Fri
night and Sat. Some extreme winds are possible over the western
portions of the southern waters Fri night if Florence's eyewall
passes nearby as currently forecasted. SE winds are forecast to
subside to 15-20 kt Sun and Mon.

As Florence moves through the waters and inland Fri/Fri night seas
will peak at 20-30 ft across the coastal waters, and very
slowly subside but remain elevated 10 ft or higher Friday night
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 200 PM Thu...Historic rainfall expected to occur in NC
with Hurricane Florence. The forward motion of Florence will
come to a crawl over the next 36 hours. This perilous track will
keep eastern NC under the potent moisture stream on the right
front quadrant of the storm. The long duration of this event
unlike previous storms of its magnitude will support record
rainfall amounts over portions of our area, most likely the
southern coastal counties where the rain bands will persist
longer. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 feet with locally higher
amounts are entirely probably given the storm track. The
gradient will be tight across the region with northern counties
likely seeing a foot or less rainfall, especially the northern
Outer Banks. All locations will be vulnerable to flash flooding,
with catastrophic flooding likely in areas that receive feet of
rain. All rivers will be susceptible to major flooding, though
the devil is in the details for exact crests and timing. The
models are taking an unfavorable trend of higher rainfall
amounts in the headwaters of the Neuse and Tar River basins,
which would increase the risks for major flooding in those
rivers. For rivers in the southern coastal counties like the New
River, NE Cape Fear, and Trent River record flooding is likely,
surpassing levels reached by Hurricane Floyd in 1999. A slight
wobble to the right of the track or stalling of the storm could
push the risk for major river flooding a tier of counties
further north. Record flooding is currently forecasted for the
river forecast point in Chinquapin. Concern is high for evacuees
traveling back into the region next week at which time most
rivers should be experiencing flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-
     104.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CB
NEAR TERM...CTC/CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...RF/JME
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/CB
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CB
HYDROLOGY...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
527 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-092>094-142130-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Jones-Craven-Pamlico-
527 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ079-090-091-142130-
Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
527 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ095-098-103-104-142130-
Carteret-Onslow-Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
527 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     STORM SURGE      CHERRY BRANCH           34.94N 76.81W
09/13/2018                   CRAVEN             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NC DOT FERRY DIVISION REPORTED STORM SURGE
            OF 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR THE
            CHERRY BRANCH FERRY TERMINAL.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
941 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     STORM SURGE      ORIENTAL                35.02N 76.70W
09/13/2018                   AMZ137             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIDE GAUGE IN ORIENTAL OBSERVED A STORM
            SURGE OF 6.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1021 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HURRICANE        2 SSW CAPE LOOKOUT LIGH 34.60N 76.54W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            GUST OF 96 MPH AT CAPE LOOKOUT.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HURRICANE        2 SW BEAUFORT           34.70N 76.68W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            GUST OF 99 MPH AT FORT MACON.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1028 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HURRICANE        1 SW NEWPORT            34.78N 76.88W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            GUST OF 82 MPH RECORDED AT WFO NEWPORT.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1131 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     STORM SURGE      NEW BERN                35.11N 77.04W
09/13/2018                   CRAVEN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUES DUE TO STORM SURGE AT FAIR
            HARBOR, NEW BERN, TOWNSHIP 7, AND ADAMS
            CREEK IN SOUTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY.

&&

MS