Storm Watch 2, NWS Medford, OR

576 
WHUS76 KMFR 191718
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
918 AM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

PZZ370-200630-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.A.0002.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
918 AM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 kt through Saturday afternoon. Winds
  will become south and increase to 30 to 40 kt late Saturday 
  night into Sunday, possibly reaching storm force of 45 to 50 kt 
  with gusts to 60 kt early Sunday morning. 

* Seas...West 17 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through tonight, then 14
  to 16 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas will build 
  again ahead of an incoming cold front late Saturday night into 
  Sunday.
  

* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through  
  Saturday for all areas. Storm force winds are possible beyond 15
  nm from shore and north of Cape Blanco. Gale force winds are 
  possible for the remainder of the area. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-376-200630-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
918 AM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* Winds...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt through Saturday 
  afternoon. Winds will become south and increase to 30 to 40 kt 
  late Saturday night into Sunday. 

* Seas...West 17 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through tonight, then to
  14 to 16 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas will then
  build again ahead of an incoming cold front late Saturday night
  into Sunday.
 
* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through 
  Saturday for all areas. Gale force winds are possible over 
  nearly all areas early Sunday. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$


http://www.weather.gov/medford

597 
WHUS76 KMFR 192209
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
209 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

PZZ370-201115-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0007.180120T1200Z-180121T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.A.0002.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
209 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday. 

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 kt through Saturday afternoon. 
  Winds will become south and increase to 30 to 40 kt late 
  Saturday night into Sunday, possibly reaching storm force of 
  45 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt early Sunday morning. 

* Seas...West 17 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through tonight, then 
  14 to 16 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas will 
  build again ahead of an incoming cold front late Saturday 
  night into Sunday. 

* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through
  tonight before becoming small craft advisory through for all 
  areas. Storm force winds are possible beyond 15 nm from shore 
  and north of Cape Blanco. Gale force winds are possible for the 
  remainder of the area. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-376-201115-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0007.180120T1200Z-180121T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
209 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday. 

* Winds...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt through Saturday 
  afternoon. Winds will become south and increase to 30 to 40 kt 
  late Saturday night into Sunday. 

* Seas...West 17 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through tonight, then 
  to 14 to 16 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas will 
  then build again ahead of an incoming cold front late Saturday 
  night into Sunday. 

* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through
  tonight before small craft conditions will occur on Saturday 
  for all areas. Gale force winds are possible over nearly all 
  areas early Sunday. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

&&

$$


http://www.weather.gov/medford

513 
WHUS76 KMFR 200501
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
901 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018


PZZ370-201315-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0007.180120T1200Z-180121T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.A.0002.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
901 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 kt through Saturday afternoon. 
  Winds will become south and increase to 30 to 40 kt late 
  Saturday night into Sunday, possibly reaching storm force of 
  45 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt early Sunday morning. 

* Seas...West 17 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through tonight, then 
  14 to 16 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas will 
  build again ahead of an incoming cold front late Saturday 
  night into Sunday. 

* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through 
  tonight before becoming small craft advisory through for all 
  areas. Storm force winds are possible beyond 15 nm from shore 
  and north of Cape Blanco. Gale force winds are possible for 
  the remainder of the area. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-376-201315-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0007.180120T1200Z-180121T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
901 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* Winds...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt through Saturday 
  afternoon. Winds will become south and increase to 30 to 40 kt 
  late Saturday night into Sunday. 

* Seas...West 17 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through tonight, then 
  to 14 to 16 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas will 
  then build again ahead of an incoming cold front late Saturday 
  night into Sunday. 

* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through 
  tonight before small craft conditions will occur on Saturday 
  for all areas. Gale force winds are possible over nearly all 
  areas early Sunday. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

&&

$$


http://www.weather.gov/medford

396 
WHUS76 KMFR 201020
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
220 AM PST Sat Jan 20 2018

PZZ370-202330-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0007.180120T1200Z-180121T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0002.180121T0600Z-180121T2100Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.SR.A.0002.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
220 AM PST Sat Jan 20 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST THIS 
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST 
SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Storm
Warning...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Sunday. 

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 kt through this afternoon, increasing
  to 25 to 30 kt this evening. Winds will become south gales of 
  35 to 40 kt late Saturday night increasing further to storm 
  force 45 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt through Sunday morning. 

* Seas...West 16 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through this morning,
  then 12 to 14 feet at 12 seconds through Saturday evening. Seas
  build again late Saturday night into Sunday, peaking at 20 to 23
  feet early Sunday morning. 

* Areas affected...All areas will be affected by hazardous seas
  through early this morning before decreasing to small craft
  conditions through this evening. Then all areas will be affected
  by very steep and dangerous seas late Saturday night into
  Sunday. Storm force winds are expected across all areas.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with
extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring.
Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until
winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for
very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider
remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves
subside.

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

&&

$$

PZZ350-356-376-202330-
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0007.180120T1200Z-180121T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.GL.A.0003.180121T0600Z-180122T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0002.180121T0600Z-180121T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.GL.W.0005.180121T0600Z-180121T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
220 AM PST Sat Jan 20 2018

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY
THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PST THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST
SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Storm
Warning...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Sunday. A Gale Warning has also been issued...which is in effect 
from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Sunday. 

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 kt through this afternoon, increasing
  to 25 to 30 kt this evening. Winds will become south gales of 35
  to 40 kt late Saturday night, increasing further to storm force
  45 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt through Sunday morning.

* Seas...West 15 to 18 feet at 14 seconds through this morning,
  then to 11 to 14 feet at 12 seconds by Saturday evening. Seas
  will build again late Saturday night, peaking at 18 to 22 feet
  Sunday morning. 

* Areas affected...Hazardous seas will impact all areas through
  early this morning before decreasing to small craft conditions
  through this evening. Then very steep and hazardous seas are 
  expected across all areas late Saturday night into Sunday. Storm
  force winds are expected north of Gold Beach and generally 
  beyond 2 to 3 nm from shore, except near shore within the 
  vicinity of Cape Blanco. Gale force winds are expected 
  elsewhere. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with
extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring.
Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until
winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for
very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider
remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves
subside.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
958 PM PST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...Updated the aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAF CYCLE...A slight chance of thunderstorms will
continue from the coastal waters to the coastal range overnight with
a band of light to moderate precipitation west of the Cascades and a
weaker band east of the Cascades. The coverage of showers and snow
showers will diminish after 15Z with a majority of showers during
the remainder of the day and evening occurring near the coast. The
freezing level will remain near 3500 to 4000 ft MSL through Friday
evening. The showery air mass will result in variable conditions
with mainly VFR cigs and vsbys, but areas of MVFR with mountain
obscuration. There is also brief or local valley IFR possible early
Friday morning. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PST Thursday 18 Jan 2018...Westerly swell
will gradually subside but remain very high and very steep through
Friday night. Swell dominated seas will stay high and steep but
diminish Saturday into Saturday evening. Another strong front will
move through late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing south gales
and very high seas. High pressure will bring brief improvement
Monday. But, seas will remain high and another strong front will
move through Tuesday. The continuing series of fronts will likely
bring high and steep seas through the week. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 833 PM PST Thu Jan 18 2018/

UPDATE...Steady widespread snowfall continues in the Cascades
and eastward, with snow levels below 4000 feet. Roadcams have
shown heavy snowfall with poor visibility in many areas, including
Hwy 140 and Hwy 97 at times. It is important to either take
caution when traveling, or avoid travel in these areas tonight.
Precipitation rates have been slightly higher than expected,
prompting us to add a few areas to the winter weather advisory
(WSW). Precipitation amounts have been updated over the next 12
hours to account for this trend. West of the Cascades, showers are
prevailing, and snow levels will drop to 2700 to 3000 feet late
tonight. Showers will continue into Friday, though with the
exception of the coast and coastal mountains, precipitation rates
will diminish substantially. Saturday will serve as a relative
break from weather, then a healthy frontal system will move in
Sunday and bring another round of snow in the mountains and East
Side, and rain in west side valleys. For more information see
previous discussion. -MSC

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 203 PM PST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...A short wave will rotate around the base of the
trough into our forecast area this evening. This trough is quite
unstable with plenty of cold air aloft and satellite imagery shows
plenty of cold air cumulus. A few lightning strikes at the coast
is possible. As the trough moves inland, it will also generate
widespread showers across our area. Snow levels will range from
around 3500 feet over the Umpqua Divide to around 4500 feet over
the Cascades and east side. Snow levels lowers to 2700-3500 foot
range tonight and could lower to 2500 feet by Friday morning. Time
height forecast of the Cascades show plenty of vertical lift and
confidence is high on accumulating snow at Crater Lake as well as
at Mount Ashland. Scattered showers will continue into Friday
after this main short wave has moved through. There will also be a
moderate onshore flow and Curry County and the coastal range could
see another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from Friday through Friday
night.

Saturday is expected to be a relatively quiet day as the next
storm moves into the coastal waters. Models show occasional light
shower from the Umpqua Basin north and south to southeast winds
will enhance downslope flow into southern Jackson County.

Extended Discussion Sunday through Thursday...Confidence remains
high we'll remain fairly active during the forecast period. Any
relative break in the action may be far and few in between. Right
now it looks we'll get a relative break on Monday. Even then it
won't be a 100% dry.

There remains good agreement with the timing of the front on Sunday.
There are still some differences with the timing of the front, but
overall the models are in much better agreement compared to
yesterday. The ECMWF is still a bit slower with the arrival of the
front compared to the other operational models.

Winds are still going to be the main impact on Sunday, especially in
the Shasta Valley and eastside. These areas will at least reach
advisory levels with high wind warning criteria possible in the
south end of the Shasta Valley near Weed and higher elevations like
Summer Lake east of the Cascades. There is good agreement winds will
be aligned just right for gusty winds to develop in the Rogue
Valley. In fact the south end of the Rogue Valley from around
Phoenix to Ashland could reach advisory criteria. Winds in the
Shasta and Rogue valleys are expected to be strongest from late
Sunday morning into Sunday evening, but this could change depending
on the timing of the front, so watch for updates. Meanwhile winds
will be strongest east of the Cascades from Sunday afternoon through
Sunday evening.

Gusty winds are also expected along the coast and headlands Sunday
morning. The models have trended a but stronger with the magnitude
and pressure gradient between Arcata and North Bend. So we could be
looking at high wind potential there.

The highest precip amounts on Sunday are going to be in the usual
areas. The coast and coastal mountains and the Cascades. The front
won't move onshore Sunday evening, therefore snow levels during the
day will end up higher. They should start out around 3500 feet
Sunday morning then rise to around 4500 feet Sunday afternoon. This
is when the bulk of the precipitation will come in. For now road
snow concerns will be confined to the highway 140 near Lake of the
Woods, Diamond Lake, Crater Lake and Mount Ashland Ski area. Siksyou
Summit and Mount Shasta region could pick up couple of inches at
best Sunday morning with little or nothing Sunday afternoon as snow
levels come up. Keep in mind the details on this could change.

The front will move through the area Sunday night. Winds will
decrease over most locations. Snow levels will come down, but by
then precipitation will also be on the decrease which should limit
the amount of accumulating snow. However, we'll still have to deal
with accumulating snow Sunday evening around Diamond Lake, Crater
Lake, Lake of the Woods and Highway 89 east of Mount Shasta. Siksyou
Summit could pick up and additional inch or two Sunday evening.

Were still lined up to catch a relative break in the action Monday.
Moist northwest flow on Monday will result in showers mainly
confined to the coast.

The jury is out for Monday night through Tuesday. The models show
moisture spreading into southeast Oregon and northwest California
late Monday night. However there is a new development, in particular
with the ECMWF. The ECMWF shows a surface low rapidly developing
overnight Monday, moving inside of 130W sometime Tuesday morning,
then moving onshore near Newport Oregon Tuesday evening. If this
pans out, we could be looking at strong winds along the coast,
headlands, Shasta Valley and maybe eastside. The GFS has a weaker
surface low and also has it positioned farther north which would not
have nearly the same impact. Of note: the Canadian solution is
almost similar to yesterday's ECMWF and GFS solution which showed
weak ridging.

Wednesday through Thursday looks cooler and unsettled with snow
levels possibly getting down between 2000 and 2500 feet. No big
storms, but a cool trough will be near by with moist northwest flow.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.
     High Surf Warning until 11 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ030.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through
     Sunday afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

MSC/FJB/DW