Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
929 AM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...Morning update...showers continue to taper off this
morning with another inch or two possible at higher elevations
through late morning.

.SHORT TERM...Snow continues to fall in the Cascades/Siskiyous and
across portions of the east side this morning. Webcams show snow
covered roads in these locations, and tripcheck.com snow reports
indicate several inches in much of the advisory area with as much
as 5 inches in the Warners east of Lakeview. Occasional snow is
expected to continue into mid morning, especially in the
mountains, so the winter weather advisory remains in effect. In
the lower elevations (below about 2500 feet) it's just rain
showers. We had a pretty good batch go through the Medford area
just after midnight, and another healthy batch is moving through
Josephine County now, and if it holds together, will be here
around 6 AM.

This is all a result of cool, moist, onshore flow being forced
over topography, and it is all being aided by an associated upper
trough axis moving onshore right now. High resolution model
guidance shows showers starting to dry up this afternoon over much
of the area as the trough axis moves east. However, the flow
remains onshore into Saturday, and thus the coast and Umpqua
Basin are expected to see showers continue.

Another strong frontal system is still on track for Sunday. While
not a lot was changed for Sunday, I did increase winds over the
usual windy spots in the Shasta Valley and east side. Latest
guidance shows the Medford to Redding gradient exceeding 9
Millibars, which is pretty impressive. However, as with the last
system, winds aloft have a lot of westerly component which tends
to keep winds from being too extreme in the Shasta Valley.
Nevertheless, we are almost certain to need at least wind
advisories in some locations with the front. Snow levels are also
going start off lower than with the last system, and while they do
rise in the afternoon, they will probably remain at or below major
pass level (4000 feet or so). As a result, Siskiyou Summit may
stay snow the whole time, and could see 2-4 inches of snow. Higher
locations (Crater, Diamond, Mt. Ashland, maybe even Lake of the
Woods) are almost sure to be all snow. -Wright

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions
prevail with isolated areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in valleys west
of the Cascades. The showery air mass will result in variable
conditions so there could be periods of brief improvement or lower
conditions, especially in valleys between showers. Coverage of
showers and snow showers will diminish after 15Z with the majority
of showers during the remainder of today and this evening occurring
near and along the coast. The freezing level will remain near 3000
ft MSL through today. The lowest conditions should improve later
this morning to VFR with an unstable air mass over the area to
promote mixing, but areas of MVFR with mountain obscuration are
expected throughout the TAF period. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Friday 19 Jan 2018...Westerly swell
will gradually subside but remain very high and very steep through
tonight. Swell dominated seas will stay high and steep but diminish
briefly to 11 to 13 feet late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Another strong front will move through late Saturday night
into Sunday. This front will bring another round of strong south
winds and very high seas. Current models are showing high end gales
for all of the waters, and possible storm force conditions north of
Cape Blanco and have issued a Storm Watch for this. Currently it
looks like the best time window for possible storm force winds will
be early Sunday morning with winds diminishing Sunday afternoon.

Seas will build again ahead of this front. Although not as high as
the previous event, very steep seas of 20 to 23 feet are expected by
early Sunday morning. High pressure will bring brief improvement
Monday, but seas will remain elevated and another strong front is
expected Tuesday. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ030.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through
     Sunday afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     PZZ370.

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