Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.UPDATE...
See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Typical early/midsummer pattern will prevail through the next
seven days. A 500mb height ridge center will shift east from NM to
TX by Thursday, and to the Ohio River valley by Sunday.

Midsouth rain chances will gradually decrease, if not diminish
altogether, by Thursday. This pattern will continue through
Monday. With 700mb temps near 10C, the atmosphere will remain
capped to deep moist convection, except during the heat of day.
Where isolated storms manage to form, a few may persist into the
early evening. GFS continues to exhibit a nocturnal wet bias under
the upper ridge, and expect the nighttime hours to predominately
dry.

Late week afternoon heat indices will approach 105 degrees over
northeast AR, where higher dewpoints pool over the delta. Heat
advisories may be needed as we approach late week.

Looking out beyond the extended into the middle part of next
week... GFS and ECMWF depict a retrograding cut-off upper low
over the Great Basin and northwest flow aloft from the northern
plains into the Carolinas. Such a pattern would likely bring a
cold front (i.e., near-normal temperatures) and increased rain
chances to the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

A line of thunderstorms will move south across the region this
evening with isolated thunderstorms developing ahead of the line.
Very heavy rainfall and localized strong winds will accompany
these storms. Expect this convection to weaken around sunset but
additional activity is possible overnight. Outflow from this
evening's storms may stabilize the area into Wednesday morning,
but diurnal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be relatively light with VFR
conditions outside of convection.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-132300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists late this afternoon and
early evening. Damaging wind and possible large hail will be the
main threats from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few storms could become strong to severe on Wednesday. Damaging
wind and possible large hail will be the main threats from these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

MSZ001-TNZ088-122345-
DeSoto MS-Shelby TN-
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 617 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Whitehaven, or near
Southaven, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern DeSoto and southeastern Shelby Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3522 8981 3507 8964 3500 8964 3499 8972
      3493 8972 3480 8994 3499 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 229DEG 17KT 3502 8999

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARAGOULD               36.06N  90.51W
06/12/2018                   GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN PARAGOULD.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE JONESBORO          35.81N 90.67W
06/12/2018                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            A COUPLE OF POWERPOLES SNAPPED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHLAND AND CARAWAY ROADS.

&&

AJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

ARZ028-TNZ019-048-130000-
Mississippi AR-Lauderdale TN-Dyer TN-
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
North central Lauderdale County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southwestern Dyer County in northwestern Tennessee...

At 631 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Gosnell, moving east at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Mississippi...north central Lauderdale and
southwestern Dyer Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3598 8962 3579 8966 3586 9005 3600 9000
      3600 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 288DEG 30KT 3596 8997

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             2 NNW HORN LAKE         34.98N  90.05W
06/12/2018  M0.88 INCH       DESOTO             MS   SOCIAL MEDIA

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG STATE LINE ROAD
            BETWEEN HORN LAKE ROAD AND TULANE ROAD.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
721 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

MSZ002-130045-
Marshall MS-
721 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 721 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Marianna, or 9 miles west of Holly Springs, moving
east at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Marshall County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3469 8968 3483 8965 3487 8938 3468 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 250DEG 29KT 3477 8961