Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.UPDATE...
See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Typical early/midsummer pattern will prevail through the next
seven days. A 500mb height ridge center will shift east from NM to
TX by Thursday, and to the Ohio River valley by Sunday.

Midsouth rain chances will gradually decrease, if not diminish
altogether, by Thursday. This pattern will continue through
Monday. With 700mb temps near 10C, the atmosphere will remain
capped to deep moist convection, except during the heat of day.
Where isolated storms manage to form, a few may persist into the
early evening. GFS continues to exhibit a nocturnal wet bias under
the upper ridge, and expect the nighttime hours to predominately
dry.

Late week afternoon heat indices will approach 105 degrees over
northeast AR, where higher dewpoints pool over the delta. Heat
advisories may be needed as we approach late week.

Looking out beyond the extended into the middle part of next
week... GFS and ECMWF depict a retrograding cut-off upper low
over the Great Basin and northwest flow aloft from the northern
plains into the Carolinas. Such a pattern would likely bring a
cold front (i.e., near-normal temperatures) and increased rain
chances to the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

A line of thunderstorms will move south across the region this
evening with isolated thunderstorms developing ahead of the line.
Very heavy rainfall and localized strong winds will accompany
these storms. Expect this convection to weaken around sunset but
additional activity is possible overnight. Outflow from this
evening's storms may stabilize the area into Wednesday morning,
but diurnal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be relatively light with VFR
conditions outside of convection.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-132300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists late this afternoon and
early evening. Damaging wind and possible large hail will be the
main threats from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few storms could become strong to severe on Wednesday. Damaging
wind and possible large hail will be the main threats from these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             2 NNW HORN LAKE         34.98N  90.05W
06/12/2018  M0.88 INCH       DESOTO             MS   SOCIAL MEDIA

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG STATE LINE ROAD
            BETWEEN HORN LAKE ROAD AND TULANE ROAD.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
721 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

MSZ002-130045-
Marshall MS-
721 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 721 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Marianna, or 9 miles west of Holly Springs, moving
east at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Marshall County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3469 8968 3483 8965 3487 8938 3468 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 250DEG 29KT 3477 8961

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
728 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

MSZ002-003-130045-
Marshall MS-Benton MS-
728 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 728 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Slayden, or 8 miles north of Holly Springs, moving
east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Marshall and northwestern Benton Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3483 8949 3496 8949 3497 8920 3482 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 270DEG 21KT 3489 8945

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
751 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

MSZ002>004-130115-
Tippah MS-Marshall MS-Benton MS-
751 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Central Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 750 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Snow Lake Shores, or 7 miles northeast of Holly
Springs, moving east at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Tippah...northeastern Marshall and central
Benton Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3476 8941 3490 8939 3492 8899 3472 8899
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 270DEG 41KT 3483 8932

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

TNZ088-130200-
Shelby TN-
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 829 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Millington, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Shelby County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3537 9008 3539 9007 3540 9004 3538 8964
      3537 8964 3537 8963 3517 8964 3528 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 290DEG 12KT 3531 8985

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
933 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

MSZ006-009-130300-
Tishomingo MS-Prentiss MS-
933 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR...

Southern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 933 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Booneville, moving east at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Tishomingo and northern Prentiss Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3455 8814 3462 8871 3476 8872 3475 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 275DEG 39KT 3467 8857