Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

May 17, 2018Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at May 17, 2018, 3:12 PM CDT for Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 17, 2018, 3:12 PM CDT (20:12 UTC)
Expired
May 17, 2018, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
48 min
Issued by
NWS Memphis, TN

Counties Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2018-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2018-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -8 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1051 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 17, 2:26 PM CDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 17, 2:26 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
226 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring once again
across the Midsouth this afternoon...with the heaviest activity
and greatest coverage north of I-40 and across northeast
Mississippi. In the short term outflows will continue to merge and
form new storms. Temperatures not under the thicker cloud cover
and/or precipitation have climbed into the low and mid 80s...with
cooler 70s elsewhere. Winds have been light and variable with
occasional higher gusts near convection and outflows.

For today through tomorrow...models have a good handle on the
slow southeastward track on the double barrel upper low
circulations seen both in Mississippi and Missouri this hour.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist around the Midsouth for the
next 24 to 36 hours...with the greatest coverage anticipated
across the north and eastern counties...and of course during peak
heating hours. Storms will be of the pulse type variety with
updrafts lasting the typical 20-30 minutes. A few storms
potentially reaching severe limits with both wet microbursts and
hail reaching quarter size. Convection coverage will wane tonight
after sunset...but is once again not favored to completely get
snuffed. Friday's coverage will be more dominate as you approach
the Tennessee River and the Alabama border. Lows tonight will
fall into the 60s with high on Friday back into the 80s for most.

Saturday and Sunday...upper level heights will build back over the
area with a weak southwest or westerly flow. On the surface less
cloud cover especially in the morning hours will allow for
temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints
across the region will remain in the mid 60s to low 70s...so
afternoon heat indices will run up into the mid and potentially
the upper 90s. Convection will be more isolated and not likely to
remain around between 9pm through the 11am hours.

Extended period starting Monday...models agree that a split upper
level flow will exist across the the CONUS with the southern
branch carving out a trough across the southwest states before
weakening and lifting into the Central Plains. This will leave the
Midsouth with a 15-30kt upper flow from the west and northwest.
On the surface a weak frontal boundary will reach the AR/MO and
TN/KY borders by early Tuesday as a shortwave digs into the
eastern Great Lakes and New England. This boundary will provide a
better focus for addition storm chances. Severe weather though
remains questionable...with a better threat for storm
organization seen from the Texas Panhandle into Lower Missouri
Valley. High temperatures this period will run 5-7 degrees above
normal.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

A slow eastward track of a pair of upper level disturbances will
continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms for all
the TAF sites this period. This activity will likely bring periods
MVFR and IFR conditions as well. Later in the period IFR stratus
and patchy fog will effect the sites. Winds will be light with a
slight directional bias from the north or east. Brief higher winds
expected in thunderstorms.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, May 17, 2:22 PM CDT, 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
222 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-182130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
222 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm is possible this afternoon into early evening across
the Mid-South. Damaging winds...large hail along with localized
heavy rainfall are the main threats if a thunderstorm develops
and reaches severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An isolated strong storm in the afternoon hours will be possible
Friday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JAB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 17, 9:47 AM CDT, 5 hours 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
947 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

MSZ008-171515-
Tate MS-
947 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR...

Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 946 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Senatobia, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Tate County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3464 9009 3473 8997 3473 8996 3474 8996
      3475 8993 3477 8991 3477 8973 3474 8972
      3469 8972 3469 8970 3458 8967 3456 8967
      3455 8977 3455 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 233DEG 13KT 3459 8995
Local storm report, May 17, 11:32 AM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BONO                    35.91N 90.80W
05/17/2018                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

             6 INCHES OF WATER FLOODED INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD
            323 AND 324 NEAR BONO.

&&

MRM
Local storm report, May 17, 12:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1205 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WALCOTT                 36.03N 90.67W
05/17/2018                   GREENE             AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROAD 141 NEAR WALCOTT CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MRM
Special weather statement, May 17, 3:08 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
308 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TNZ092-172045-
Hardin TN-
308 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR...

Hardin County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 308 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles southeast of
Savannah, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Hardin County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3501 8828 3531 8831 3538 8803 3537 8802
      3537 8801 3535 8801 3533 8802 3530 8802
      3530 8799 3501 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 150DEG 7KT 3518 8812
Special weather statement, May 17, 3:12 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

ARZ009-MOZ113-115-172100-
Clay AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
312 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR...

East central Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Eastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 312 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Deering, or near
Hayti, moving north at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in east central Clay...Pemiscot and eastern Dunklin Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3639 8997 3639 8975 3643 8973 3640 8967
      3641 8961 3640 8959 3634 8955 3634 8961
      3631 8961 3629 8958 3624 8961 3625 8970
      3623 8970 3620 8965 3607 8975 3607 9013
      3650 9013 3650 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 159DEG 11KT 3621 8985

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 3:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGHardin37 min
May 17, 3:42 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGShelby33 min
May 17, 4:03 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGShelby117 min
May 17, 5:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGDyer43 min
May 17, 9:47 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGTate28 min
May 17, 10:12 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGPanola, Tate43 min
May 17, 3:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGTallahatchie44 min
May 17, 3:22 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGLafayette, Yalobusha23 min
May 17, 4:37 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGTallahatchie3 hr
May 16, 7:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGMississippi25 min
May 16, 8:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGCrittenden24 min
May 16, 8:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGClay26 min
May 17, 3:13 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGRandolph47 min
May 17, 3:37 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGRandolph113 min
May 17, 5:09 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGCraighead, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph111 min
May 17, 7:13 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMEGGreene, Lawrence, Randolph2 hr
May 17, 7:40 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGCraighead, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph3 hr
May 17, 1:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead25 min
May 17, 2:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Greene43 min
May 17, 3:44 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGClay, Greene46 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.