Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Memphis, TN

793 
WGUS74 KMEG 171552
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1052 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

ARC031-055-075-121-171601-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180517T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene AR-Randolph AR-Craighead AR-Lawrence AR-
1052 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD AND EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTIES
HAS EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3630 9082 3628 9080 3627 9081 3627 9079
      3605 9055 3582 9075 3597 9087 3624 9105

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a quasi-
stationary boundary bisecting Arkansas and into Southeast
Missouri. GOES-16 Satellite trends along with regional WSR-88D
trends indicate yesterday's residual Mesoscale Convective Vortex
(MCV) centered just east of Little Rock. Showers and thunderstorms
have increased somewhat in coverage over Arkansas overnight. As
of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are predominantly
in the 60s with a few locations in the lower 70s.

The aforementioned MCV will slowly move east today across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-South. Short term models
including CAM solutions indicate scattered showers and
thunderstorms becoming more numerous this afternoon as this MCV
interacts with a warm, moist and unstable airmass. Overall shear
remains weak with convective development leaning towards
thunderstorms with pulse type characteristics. A few strong
thunderstorms with perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm will be
possible especially this afternoon through early evening with
damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat if
thunderstorms can reach severe limits. Localized heavy rainfall
will also be possible as precipitable water values are approaching
2 inches.

Short term models indicate an upper level low over Northeast
Kansas will gradually move Southeast towards East Central
Missouri/Southern Illinois by Friday night. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible especially during the afternoon/early
evening peak heating but expecting coverage to decrease somewhat
for Friday into Saturday as better convective coverage will be
mostly northeast of the forecast area and weak shortwave ridging
temporarily builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Long term models indicate an unsettled pattern will return to the
region for next week starting out with southwest upper level flow
aloft and the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day,
especially during the afternoon/early evening hours. Potential may
increase for perhaps the development of MCS's later next week as
upper level flow transitions to northwest flow aloft and a weak
front drops into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and
becomes nearly quasi-stationary.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Midlevel low pressure system centered northeast of LIT at 12Z will
lift slowly east today. Ahead of this feature, scattered to
numerous SHRA will form, with TSRA chances peaking during the
afternoon. Diurnal weakening and coverage decrease expected with
loss of surface heating this evening, with scattered, mainly SHRA
and light winds prevailing for MEM late evening arrival push.

Similar to this morning, IFR will likely affect MKL and TUP after
06Z, with high humidity and calm winds in the boundary layer.
Overlying midlevel deck may preclude VLIFR visibilities from
prevailing at those two terminals.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
407 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-181200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
407 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm is possible this afternoon into early evening across
the Mid-South. Damaging winds along with localized heavy rainfall
are the threats if a thunderstorm develops and reaches severe
limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
313 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

ARZ008-170900-
Randolph AR-
313 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Randolph County in eastern Arkansas...

At 312 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size
hail was located over Maynard, or 11 miles north of Pocahontas.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Randolph County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3650 9083 3637 9083 3633 9106 3649 9118
      3650 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 160DEG 4KT 3642 9092