Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

133 
WWUS54 KMEG 282323
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

MSC027-282331-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180329T0000Z/
Coahoma MS-
623 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COAHOMA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3398 9045 3416 9045 3455 9014 3455 8972
      3443 8972 3397 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 222DEG 41KT 3427 9010 

$$

MSC107-119-135-290000-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180329T0000Z/
Tallahatchie MS-Quitman MS-Panola MS-
623 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN TALLAHATCHIE...QUITMAN AND PANOLA COUNTIES...

At 621 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Curtis 
Station, or 9 miles west of Batesville, moving northeast at 45 mph. 
A second severe thunderstorm is near Sumner and will move towards 
Lambert. This storm is also moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, John W Kyle State Park, Tutwiler, Marks, Sardis, Lambert,
Como, Crowder, Sledge, Sumner, Belen, Vance, Darling, Pleasant Grove,
Curtis Station, Falcon, Mims, Barksdale, Denton and Asa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 9045 3416 9045 3455 9014 3455 8972
      3443 8972 3397 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 222DEG 41KT 3427 9010 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

826 
WWUS54 KMEG 282332
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

MSC119-135-282341-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180329T0000Z/
Tallahatchie MS-Quitman MS-
632 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TALLAHATCHIE AND
QUITMAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3433 9018 3455 9006 3455 8972 3443 8972
      3419 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 220DEG 47KT 3438 8999 

$$

MSC107-290000-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180329T0000Z/
Panola MS-
632 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY...

At 631 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Batesville,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, John W Kyle State Park, Sardis, Como, Curtis Station,
Pleasant Grove, Courtland, McGhee, Asa, Ballentine, Glenville, Hayes
Crossing, Horatio and Chapeltown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9018 3455 9006 3455 8972 3443 8972
      3419 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 220DEG 47KT 3438 8999 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

787 
WWUS54 KMEG 290000
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
700 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

MSC107-290010-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180329T0000Z/
Panola MS-
700 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3433 9018 3455 9006 3455 8972 3443 8972
      3419 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 220DEG 47KT 3466 8970 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
355 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A deep positively tilted upper level trough over the western
Southern Plains will continue to advance east tonight. This upper
level feature will aid in surface cyclogenesis across northern
Louisiana which will lift northeast along an old convective
outflow boundary stretched from northern Louisiana into portions
of northeast Mississippi. The airmass south of this surface
boundary has becoming increasingly unstable with temperatures
nearing 80 degrees and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s.
SBCAPES in this area are ranging from 500-1000 j/kg. The approach
of the upper trough and surface wave may result in the low level
boundary shifting back slowly to the north. In addition, as the
surface wave surges northeast, anticipate overall low and deep
layer shear to increase in response to a low level jet streak on
the order of 60 kts overspreading the near surface warm sector. Surface
winds may also back across northeast Mississippi in response to
the approaching surface wave. This should increase low level
helicity, with models suggesting 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH
developing along the boundary. A few severe thunderstorms are
expected over portions of northeast Mississippi this evening with
the potential for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The
severe weather threat should diminish later this evening as
instability decreases.

Heavy rainfall will also become an increasing threat with this
approaching wave with an additional 2-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts anticipated. This may result in some localized
flooding with the greatest potential across northeast Mississippi
into southern west Tennessee. The Flood Watch across these
locations will remain in place into Thursday morning. Further
northwest, the flooding rain threat has diminished and the Flood
Watch has been cancelled early.

The convection should weaken and move east later tonight as the
surface wave lifts northeast into middle Tennessee. Lingering
stratiform rainfall will continue behind the stronger convection.
The upper trough to the west will push through the region on
Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms. Temperatures should remain seasonably mild into
tomorrow ahead of the primary surface cold front. This front
should move across the area by later Thursday night, bringing an
end to the rainfall and also spreading in below normal
temperatures for Friday. Temperatures should quickly rebound back
to near or slightly above average by Saturday as low level flow
turns back from the south.

For the extended forecast, a series of disturbances will move
across the region bringing bouts of showers and storms along with
near seasonal temperatures.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF Set

Patchy light showers continue across portions of the Mid-South.
VFR conditions are occurring at KMEM and KMKL while KJBR and KTUP
remain IFR/MVFR. Another round of convection is expected to push
up into NW MS after 20-21Z and will deteriorate conditions at
KMEM, KMKL, and KTUP. Although, KTUP will be the only site to see
chances for thunder. Conditions will likely stay IFR during the
overnight hours even after the precipitation pushes east. Another
round of convection is expected to develop along the front after
13Z near KJBR. This round will impact KMEM during the early
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light and variable
through the period. Although at times speeds could gust up to
around 15 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Crittenden-Lee AR-
     Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coahoma-DeSoto-Marshall-
     Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Monroe-Pontotoc-
     Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Hardin-McNairy.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
332 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-292245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
332 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across portions
of north Mississippi into west Tennessee. There will be a threat
for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The severe weather
threat should extend from this afternoon through late evening.

A Flood Watch remains in effect tonight for a large portion of the
Mid South. Please refer to the Flood Watch product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Flood Watch remains in effect through early Thursday afternoon
for southeast portions of the Mid South. Please refer to the
Flood Watch product for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and emergency management officials should report any
severe weather occurrence or flooding to NWS Memphis.

JLH