Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
918 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Ongoing strong to severe storms will continue this evening across
portions of southwest TN and north MS and a bowing line segment is
diving southeast across northern AR. There is plenty of
instability across the region with MUCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg per
mesoanalysis. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should help
maintain some organization of this convection for several more
hours although increasing CINH should result in a general
weakening trend as the storms approach the Mississippi River.
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how far southeast the AR
storms reach as the hires CAMS have been pretty useless. The
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is probably a bit large but the goal was
to balance the uncertainty with the potential impacts.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. A few
thunderstorms have popped up over portions of north Mississippi
and west Tennessee this afternoon. Some additional thunderstorms
may pop up early this evening and some thunderstorms may move into
the forecast area from southeast Missouri. There could be a severe
storm or two tonight mainly west of the Mississippi with damaging
winds as the main threat. Temperatures will remain quite warm
with lows Friday morning in the mid 70s.

On Friday, a cold front will drop south into Missouri and Kansas.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and some
of this activity may move into mainly northern sections of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be rather hot on Friday with
highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values are expected to
reach or exceed 105 degrees over most of the forecast area so will
be issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday.

The cold front will move into the region Friday night bringing
more thunderstorms with it. Some of these thunderstorms could be
severe with damaging winds and possibly large hail expected.
Temperatures will remain warm with lows Saturday morning in the
mid 70s. The cold front will move out of the forecast area on
Saturday with thunderstorms possible over eastern sections.
Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the low to mid
70s. Heat index values should remain below 105.

The cold front will be south of the region Saturday night with dry
weather expected. An upper level disturbance will drop into middle
Tennessee on Sunday with some thunderstorms possible over eastern
sections of the forecast area. Most of the thunderstorms that
develop Sunday should be out of the forecast area by Sunday night.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible on Monday.
Another cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move
into the forecast area for Wednesday and next Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms will be found ahead of the front all three days.
Temperatures will not be as hot from Monday through Thursday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFs

VFR...though MKL could see light fog/MVFR VSBY late tonight.
Convection forecast not as confident. Showers and a few storms
early will be isolated. Stronger complex in Missouri could hold
together and affect the northern TAF sites between 20/06z-20/12z.
For now kept the forecast more optimistic with VC remarks. Later
in the period greater confidence of better storm coverage...which
is likely to reach MEM after 21/01z. Light southeast to south
winds overnight...increasing to 6-11kts with gusts at JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Chester-Crockett-
     Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
911 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
911 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe storms this evening for areas
west of the Mississippi River with a Marginal Risk across
portions of west Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 4 AM. Damaging winds and
heavy rainfall are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the Mid-South on Friday.
Heat indices may range from 105 and 109 degrees across most of
the Mid-South.

There is a Enhanced Risk for severe weather across much of west
Tennessee and northeast Mississippi on Friday. There is a Slight
Risk for severe weather across the remainder of the Mid-South on
Friday. The primary hazard will be damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and again on Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
901 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MSZ007-011-012-200245-
Tunica MS-Panola MS-Quitman MS-
901 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR...

Southern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 901 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Curtis Station, or
7 miles west of Batesville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Tunica...western Panola and Quitman Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3407 9039 3449 9039 3449 8988 3416 8991
      3416 9013 3407 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 295DEG 22KT 3433 9006

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