Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. A few
thunderstorms have popped up over portions of north Mississippi
and west Tennessee this afternoon. Some additional thunderstorms
may pop up early this evening and some thunderstorms may move into
the forecast area from southeast Missouri. There could be a severe
storm or two tonight mainly west of the Mississippi with damaging
winds as the main threat. Temperatures will remain quite warm
with lows Friday morning in the mid 70s.

On Friday, a cold front will drop south into Missouri and Kansas.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and some
of this activity may move into mainly northern sections of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be rather hot on Friday with
highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values are expected to
reach or exceed 105 degrees over most of the forecast area so will
be issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday.

The cold front will move into the region Friday night bringing
more thunderstorms with it. Some of these thunderstorms could be
severe with damaging winds and possibly large hail expected.
Temperatures will remain warm with lows Saturday morning in the
mid 70s. The cold front will move out of the forecast area on
Saturday with thunderstorms possible over eastern sections.
Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the low to mid
70s. Heat index values should remain below 105.

The cold front will be south of the region Saturday night with dry
weather expected. An upper level disturbance will drop into middle
Tennessee on Sunday with some thunderstorms possible over eastern
sections of the forecast area. Most of the thunderstorms that
develop Sunday should be out of the forecast area by Sunday night.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible on Monday.
Another cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move
into the forecast area for Wednesday and next Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms will be found ahead of the front all three days.
Temperatures will not be as hot from Monday through Thursday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFs

VFR...though MKL could see light fog/MVFR VSBY late tonight.
Convection forecast not as confident. Showers and a few storms
early will be isolated. Stronger complex in Missouri could hold
together and affect the northern TAF sites between 20/06z-20/12z.
For now kept the forecast more optimistic with VC remarks. Later
in the period greater confidence of better storm coverage...which
is likely to reach MEM after 21/01z. Light southeast to south
winds overnight...increasing to 6-11kts with gusts at JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Shelby-Tipton.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Chester-Crockett-
     Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
346 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-202300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
346 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and west of the
Mississippi river this afternoon. Heat Indices will range from
105 to 109F today.

In addition, there is a Slight Risk for severe storms this
afternoon and this evening for areas west of the Mississippi River.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and this evening over the remainder of the Mid-South. Damaging
winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the Mid-South on Friday.
Heat indices may range from 105 and 109 degrees across most of
the Mid-South.

There is a Enhanced Risk for severe weather across much of west
Tennessee and northeast Mississippi on Friday. There is a Slight
Risk for severe weather across the remainder of the Mid-South on
Friday. The primary hazard will be damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and again on Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
701 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MSZ002-TNZ088-089-200045-
Marshall MS-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
701 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 701 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Eads, or near
Cordova. This storm was nearly stationary.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Marshall...southwestern Fayette and
southeastern Shelby Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3499 8972 3500 8974 3525 8975 3525 8950
      3469 8944 3469 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 315DEG 4KT 3517 8966

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
702 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

TNZ002-003-200045-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-
702 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Weakley County in northwestern Tennessee...
Northeastern Obion County in northwestern Tennessee...

At 702 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing ${allThreat}over
Martin, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Weakley and northeastern Obion Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8852 3612 8853 3612 8856 3618 8891
      3621 8895 3622 8896 3650 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 293DEG 7KT 3630 8884

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
721 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

TNZ002-003-020-200045-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-Gibson TN-
721 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Weakley County in northwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Obion County in northwestern Tennessee...
Northwestern Gibson County in northwestern Tennessee...

At 720 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles east of Troy, or
8 miles south of Union City, moving east at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Weakley...southeastern Obion and northwestern
Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3634 8886 3616 8881 3617 8916 3635 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 288DEG 34KT 3630 8904

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
729 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

TNZ004-200115-
Henry TN-
729 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Henry County in northwestern Tennessee...

At 729 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Cottage Grove, or 7
miles west of Paris, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Henry County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8814 3621 8820 3619 8853 3650 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 269DEG 11KT 3632 8843

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
737 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

TNZ002-003-020-200115-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-Gibson TN-
737 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Weakley County in northwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Obion County in northwestern Tennessee...
Northern Gibson County in northwestern Tennessee...

At 737 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Kenton, or 12 miles
southwest of Martin, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Weakley...southeastern Obion and northern
Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3628 8882 3608 8881 3612 8916 3630 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 303DEG 15KT 3624 8904