Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
210 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The Midsouth was becoming increasingly unstable ahead of an
approaching cold front extending from southeast Missouri into
central Arkansas. Radar showing spotty convection forming along
and ahead of the boundary with one lone severe storm. In the wake
of the overnight precipitation skies were currently a mix of cu
and sun over the area with temperatures in 80s. Dewpoints were in
the low 70's and winds were breezy from the west southwest. SPC
meso-analysis was indicated CAPE amounts of 1000 to 2000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear of 35 kts.

For this afternoon through tonight...CAMs are agreement that
current storms will intensify and congeal into a broken line over
the remaining afternoon hours and into the evening as the front
tracks through the region. A few storms likely to produce damaging
winds and large hail. A SVR watch has been issued through 9pm for
most of the CWA. Activity should scour out the atmosphere across
the northern and western counties by late this evening...leaving
higher pops to remain across North Mississippi after midnight.
Overnight lows will drop to around 70F with some patchy fog
forming. General rainfall totals will range between a half to
potentially two inches.

Friday through Sunday...models are in very good agreement that the
current upper level low in northern Missouri with drop into the
St. Louis area tonight...then slowly track towards the Eastern
Great Lakes through Saturday becoming an open wave. This will
leave a west northwest upper flow over the Midsouth of 30-50kts
with embedded shortwaves likely to trigger new storms. The first
of these disturbances will arrive tomorrow night and a second late
Saturday into early Sunday. So rain chances will continue to be
stout this weekend shifting from the southern counties to the
northern counties as the aforementioned upper low pulls northeast.
A few strong to severe storms will also suffice in this better
sheared environment. Temperatures from precipitation and lingering
cloud cover will be seasonal with highs ranging from the mid 80s
to near 90...with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Monday through next Thursday...expected daily rain chances to
slowly dwindle this period as long range model solutions show
upper heights building. 90F+ temperatures will return along with
triple digit heat indices. Heat advisories may be required for
portions of the area.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION.../18z TAFs/

VFR cigs have returned to all terminals as of late morning as the
low stratus has mixed out. The atmosphere continues to quickly
destabilize as heating combines with a moist airmass and
approaching upper low/mid level height falls. As a result,
convection is developing across north central Arkansas early this
afternoon. Storms should increase in coverage and intensity and
impact the terminals from northwest to southeast through the
afternoon and evening. Added tempos for thunder to cover this
threat. A few severe storms may occur this afternoon as well with
strong wind gusts and hail possible. Gusty southwest winds will
continue across the region this afternoon.

Convection will end later this evening with lingering mid level
cloud cover. Still expecting VFR conditions at all sites except
KTUP, where some IFR cigs should develop after 09z. Decks will
gradually lift back to MVFR Saturday morning at KTUP and remain
VFR elsewhere. Winds should weaken overnight but increase again to
around 10 kts from the west on Saturday.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-222115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
this evening across a large portion of the Midsouth. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats. Localized heavy
rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Friday
into Sunday with passing disturbances. Damaging winds...large hail
and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

Triple digit heat indices are anticipated to return to the
Midsouth next week. Heat advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this afternoon and evening
and again throughout the weekend.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW ARLINGTON          35.32N 89.71W
06/21/2018                   SHELBY             TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            OSBORN ROADS.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 E GADSDEN             35.78N 88.93W
06/21/2018                   CROCKETT           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE CROCKET
            COUNTY AND MADISON LINE.

&&

AJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

MSZ002>005-TNZ089>091-212345-
Tippah MS-Marshall MS-Benton MS-Alcorn MS-Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-
McNairy TN-
551 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Hardeman County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southern Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southwestern McNairy County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 551 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Lagrange, or 18
miles southwest of Bolivar, moving east at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Tippah...northern Marshall...northern
Benton...northwestern Alcorn...Hardeman...southern Fayette and
southwestern McNairy Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3485 8881 3487 8964 3514 8964 3526 8915
      3525 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 285DEG 47KT 3509 8926

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
559 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLS                   35.72N 89.09W
06/21/2018                   CROCKETT           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN NEAR BELLS AND CYPRESS
            COMMUNITY. ALSO, A SHED WAS DESTROYED.

&&

AJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
606 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

TNZ049-050-088-089-212345-
Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-Haywood TN-
606 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tipton County in southwestern Tennessee...
Northern Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Northeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southwestern Haywood County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 606 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Arlington, or 8
miles east of Millington, moving east at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tipton...northern Fayette...northeastern
Shelby and southwestern Haywood Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3514 8966 3520 8990 3542 8982 3553 8943
      3529 8919 3525 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 276DEG 30KT 3532 8974

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE JACKSON            35.67N 88.78W
06/21/2018                   MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ON CAR ON HIGHWAY 70 EAST AT HIGHWAY 412.

&&

AJC