Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
210 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The Midsouth was becoming increasingly unstable ahead of an
approaching cold front extending from southeast Missouri into
central Arkansas. Radar showing spotty convection forming along
and ahead of the boundary with one lone severe storm. In the wake
of the overnight precipitation skies were currently a mix of cu
and sun over the area with temperatures in 80s. Dewpoints were in
the low 70's and winds were breezy from the west southwest. SPC
meso-analysis was indicated CAPE amounts of 1000 to 2000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear of 35 kts.

For this afternoon through tonight...CAMs are agreement that
current storms will intensify and congeal into a broken line over
the remaining afternoon hours and into the evening as the front
tracks through the region. A few storms likely to produce damaging
winds and large hail. A SVR watch has been issued through 9pm for
most of the CWA. Activity should scour out the atmosphere across
the northern and western counties by late this evening...leaving
higher pops to remain across North Mississippi after midnight.
Overnight lows will drop to around 70F with some patchy fog
forming. General rainfall totals will range between a half to
potentially two inches.

Friday through Sunday...models are in very good agreement that the
current upper level low in northern Missouri with drop into the
St. Louis area tonight...then slowly track towards the Eastern
Great Lakes through Saturday becoming an open wave. This will
leave a west northwest upper flow over the Midsouth of 30-50kts
with embedded shortwaves likely to trigger new storms. The first
of these disturbances will arrive tomorrow night and a second late
Saturday into early Sunday. So rain chances will continue to be
stout this weekend shifting from the southern counties to the
northern counties as the aforementioned upper low pulls northeast.
A few strong to severe storms will also suffice in this better
sheared environment. Temperatures from precipitation and lingering
cloud cover will be seasonal with highs ranging from the mid 80s
to near 90...with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Monday through next Thursday...expected daily rain chances to
slowly dwindle this period as long range model solutions show
upper heights building. 90F+ temperatures will return along with
triple digit heat indices. Heat advisories may be required for
portions of the area.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION.../18z TAFs/

VFR cigs have returned to all terminals as of late morning as the
low stratus has mixed out. The atmosphere continues to quickly
destabilize as heating combines with a moist airmass and
approaching upper low/mid level height falls. As a result,
convection is developing across north central Arkansas early this
afternoon. Storms should increase in coverage and intensity and
impact the terminals from northwest to southeast through the
afternoon and evening. Added tempos for thunder to cover this
threat. A few severe storms may occur this afternoon as well with
strong wind gusts and hail possible. Gusty southwest winds will
continue across the region this afternoon.

Convection will end later this evening with lingering mid level
cloud cover. Still expecting VFR conditions at all sites except
KTUP, where some IFR cigs should develop after 09z. Decks will
gradually lift back to MVFR Saturday morning at KTUP and remain
VFR elsewhere. Winds should weaken overnight but increase again to
around 10 kts from the west on Saturday.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-222115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
this evening across a large portion of the Midsouth. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats. Localized heavy
rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Friday
into Sunday with passing disturbances. Damaging winds...large hail
and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

Triple digit heat indices are anticipated to return to the
Midsouth next week. Heat advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this afternoon and evening
and again throughout the weekend.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
223 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             WALDENBURG              35.56N 90.93W
06/21/2018  E1.50 INCH       POINSETT           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PING PONG SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN
            WALDENBURG ARKANSAS.

&&

HGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
242 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
06/21/2018  M51 MPH          LAWRENCE           AR   AWOS

            THERE WAS A 51 MPH PEAK WIND GUST REPORTED BY THE AWOS IN
            WALNUT RIDGE.

&&

HGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 SSW CASH              35.77N 90.95W
06/21/2018  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BETWEEN CASH AND PITTS
            OFF OF HIGHWAY 18.

&&

HGW

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