Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
326 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon
indicates a subtle shortwave trough over portions of North
Mississippi. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends indicate convection
from earlier today has dropped into North Mississippi and regained
some strength into an area that has been relatively rain free thus
far. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the
70s to around 80 degrees where convection has occurred and 80s to
approaching 90 degrees across portions of North Mississippi
towards Central Mississippi.

Latest mesoanalysis indicates instability has increased this
afternoon to around 2500 J/kg over portions of Mississippi.
Overall 0-6 km shear is around 30 kts leading to some quasi-
organization of thunderstorms. A few strong to perhaps an isolated
severe thunderstorm will be possible through early evening with
damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat along with
a threat for localized heavy rainfall as precipitable water
values are around 2 inches.

Short term models including CAM solutions indicate a cold front
will move east/southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Saturday night resulting in the development of additional showers
and thunderstorms. Chance/Likely rain chances seem reasonable at
this time with any Saturday afternoon potential being minimal in
coverage at best. A potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday night with damaging winds and localized
heavy rainfall as the primary severe threat and perhaps hail as a
secondary threat.

Long term models indicate an upper level ridge will attempt to
build into the Lower Mississippi Valley next week. Some
differences between the GFS and ECMWF exist with respect to how
much convective coverage will occur across the Mid-South.
Nonetheless, it appears the best low end chances will occur mainly
across areas near the Tennessee River.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Convection continues to affect portions of west TN and north MS
this afternoon and will gradually shift to the south during the
late afternoon and evening hours. VCTS was included at MEM/TUP for
this afternoon. Expect generally dry weather overnight, but
clearing skies will likely result in areas of fog, particularly
where heavier rain fell today. Expect the dry weather to continue
through much of Saturday, but rain chances return Saturday evening
and overnight.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
413 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
413 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon mainly across Northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threats.

Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees over portions of Eastern
Arkansas and West Tennessee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices will reach between 100 to 105 degrees on Saturday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday Night ahead of an approaching cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABBEVILLE               34.50N 89.50W
06/01/2018                   LAFAYETTE          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NORTHEAST POWER REPORTING DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES
            NEAR ABBEVILLE/CORNERSVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

WLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

MSZ001-007-008-012115-
Tunica MS-DeSoto MS-Tate MS-
339 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern DeSoto County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 339 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Robinsonville, or
16 miles southeast of Hughes, moving south at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Tunica...southwestern DeSoto and northwestern
Tate Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3483 9037 3485 9018 3461 9002 3461 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 343DEG 15KT 3476 9028

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLOOD            OXFORD                  34.36N 89.53W
06/01/2018                   LAFAYETTE          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OXFORD PD REPORTING STREET FLOODING WITH AT LEAST 4 CARS
            STUCK.

&&

WLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
418 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

ARZ049-058-MSZ007-008-010>012-012200-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-Quitman MS-
418 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Lee County in eastern Arkansas...
Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northeastern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 417 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing pea dime size
hail and winds to 45 mph was located along a line extending from
near Marianna to near Strayhorn. Movement was south at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Phillips...southeastern Lee...Tunica...
northeastern Coahoma...northwestern Panola...southwestern Tate and
northeastern Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3449 9076 3437 8997 3467 9012 3477 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 340DEG 13KT 3471 9071 3460 9019

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
429 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             5 ESE OAKLAND           34.03N 89.83W
06/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
440 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N CHARLESTON          34.07N 90.06W
06/01/2018                   TALLAHATCHIE       MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG AND NEAR TEASDALE ROAD

&&

WLC