Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor satellite trends this morning indicate
the remnants of last night's Mesoscale Convective System moving
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. (MCS) KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar
trends indicate sub-severe showers and thunderstorms moving over
portions of West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

Latest mesoanalysis at best indicates Surface based CAPE values
between 1500-2000 J/kg along the southern tier of counties in
North Mississippi late this morning.

Short term models including CAM models indicate the best potential
for shower and thunderstorms over portions of North Mississippi
this afternoon. Will make some adjustments to lower convective
chances, especially north of I-40 and adjust temperatures and
other elements as needed for current trends.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Area of convection continues to push through the Mid-South at this
time. The convection has been weakening over the last hour and
expect this trend to continue through sunrise. A couple of the CAM
models show the convection continuing to push south into North
Mississippi through the morning hours.

Tough forecast for today as lingering cloud cover and showers
could keep temperatures a tad cooler especially across North
Mississippi. Several of the CAM models indicate redevelopment of
convection will occur along old outflow boundaries by this
afternoon which would most likely occur across North Mississippi,
but with the possible cooler temperatures it could limit the
redevelopment. For now have left likely POPS during the afternoon
hours for areas south of I-40.

Saturday will be a hot and humid day across the area. Highs will
reach into the lower to mid 90s while heat indices will be between
100-105 degrees.

Relief from the hot and humid conditions will come Saturday Night
as a cold front moves into the area. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop ahead of the front with some becoming severe
especially along and west of the Mississippi River.

Surface high pressure will build into the Mid-South on Sunday as
the upper flow aloft remains out of the Northwest through the
middle of next week. Cooler and drier air will filter into the
region thanks to the surface high. However, with the region
remaining in northwest flow aloft, can't totally rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm occurring with a disturbance
moving through the northwest flow.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Convection continues to affect portions of west TN and north MS
this afternoon and will gradually shift to the south during the
late afternoon and evening hours. VCTS was included at MEM/TUP for
this afternoon. Expect generally dry weather overnight, but
clearing skies will likely result in areas of fog, particularly
where heavier rain fell today. Expect the dry weather to continue
through much of Saturday, but rain chances return Saturday evening
and overnight.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
413 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
413 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon mainly across Northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threats.

Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees over portions of Eastern
Arkansas and West Tennessee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices will reach between 100 to 105 degrees on Saturday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday Night ahead of an approaching cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARDWELL                36.05N 90.29W
06/01/2018                   DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A BIG TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A DEPUTY SHERIFFS CAR ON
            HIGHWAY V WEST OF CR 621.

&&

HGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLOW ROCK             36.03N 88.27W
06/01/2018                   CARROLL            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWERLINES DOWN AND TREE ON FIRE ON ROUTE 114 IN HOLLOW
            ROCK. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

HGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
122 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

MSZ002-013-014-011845-
Lafayette MS-Marshall MS-Union MS-
122 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 122 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Wall Doxey State
Park, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Lafayette...southeastern Marshall and
southwestern Union Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3461 8960 3472 8943 3461 8930 3458 8930
      3458 8926 3446 8910 3438 8922 3438 8924
      3436 8925 3429 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 321DEG 16KT 3462 8946

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
148 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

MSZ002-013-014-011915-
Lafayette MS-Marshall MS-Union MS-
148 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
West central Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 148 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Bethlehem, or 8
miles south of Wall Doxey State Park, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Lafayette...southern Marshall and west central
Union Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3462 8967 3463 8941 3444 8911 3429 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 321DEG 16KT 3454 8942

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

MSZ012-012015-
Panola MS-
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 235 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Sardis, or near
Batesville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Panola County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3440 9007 3448 8988 3428 8972 3417 8972
      3416 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 333DEG 16KT 3438 8994

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

MSZ013-012030-
Lafayette MS-
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR...

Southern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 257 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Oxford, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Lafayette County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3419 8951 3419 8963 3438 8968 3442 8948
      3421 8925 3416 8925 3416 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 321DEG 15KT 3431 8951

JOHNSON