Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.UPDATE...

Morning hi-resolutions models showing a better signal for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the area. A
shortwave is already helping produce showers and storms across
Pecos and Terrell counties. We are also heating up much faster
today vs. yesterday with the dryline still across western areas of
our CWA. Current thinking is we will continue to destabilize along
and east of the Pecos River through the afternoon with storms
forming near here around 2 PM CDT or so. These storms will have
the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. Sent an
update to increase PoPs and keep severe wording.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Southerly winds will continue, gusty at times, through the TAF
period. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
mainly affect KMAF, KFST and KINK. These storms should exit the
area this evening and VFR conditions will prevail into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69 100  69  97 /  30  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  97  57  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         68  99  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  68  99  65  97 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 63  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  95  56  93 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                          56  92  52  90 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           70 100  67  98 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  99  67  97 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           64 100  61  98 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

29/99/

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
113 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXZ058-074-075-171900-
Pecos TX-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
113 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS...SOUTHWESTERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Balmorhea, or 17 miles south of Toyah, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Saragosa, Balmorhea State Park, Verhalen
and Toyahvale.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 198 and 228.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 10388 3121 10392 3128 10339 3083 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 259DEG 20KT 3106 10380

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