Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

776 
WWUS54 KMAF 172121
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
421 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXC301-475-495-172215-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180517T2215Z/
Ward TX-Winkler TX-Loving TX-
421 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WARD...SOUTHERN WINKLER AND SOUTHEASTERN LOVING
COUNTIES...

At 420 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Wink, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Kermit, Wink, Thorntonville, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial
Airport and Winkler County Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 69 and 79.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 10344 3183 10338 3195 10299 3168 10288
      3148 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 282DEG 29KT 3174 10328 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

49

611 
WWUS54 KMAF 172150
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXC301-172159-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180517T2215Z/
Loving TX-
450 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOVING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. 

LAT...LON 3161 10328 3189 10319 3195 10299 3168 10288
      3148 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 275DEG 21KT 3174 10310 

$$

TXC475-495-172215-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180517T2215Z/
Ward TX-Winkler TX-
450 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WARD AND SOUTHERN WINKLER COUNTIES...

At 449 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wink, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kermit, Wink, Thorntonville, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport and 
Winkler County Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 69 and 79.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 10328 3189 10319 3195 10299 3168 10288
      3148 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 275DEG 21KT 3174 10310 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

49

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
325 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Upper ridge extending up from Mexico across the Panhandle to the
Front Range while a trough remains over the Great Basin.  This
trough will move east reaching the Rockies Friday and move onto the
Central plains Early Saturday.  High pressure will return behind it
as the next upper trough builds down the West Coast Sunday and
wobbles east the next few days.

Temperatures heated up quickly this morning and running above
yesterday... reaching the upper 90s by 18z.  Expect highs in the
upper 90s pushing 100 for much of the area Friday and Saturday so
stayed at or above guidance.  A cold front Sunday may make it into
the northern part of the area but does not appear to blow through
the area but may slowly bridge through the region overnight.  Sunday
should be cooler but would be from more clouds and some rain around
the area not from the front.  May see a few cooler days after that
with highs in the 80s.

Expect to see the development of a dry line later today but as of
18z the moisture was pushed all the way up against the mountains
with dewpts in the 50s nearly areawide.  Had some storms develop
over Pecos and Terrell counties well before noon... usually an
indication of a busy day.  Expect storm coverage to increase and
shift east tonight.  Had a few severe storms the past couple
afternoons... with steep lapse rates... decent cape... and lingering
boundaries may see more today.  The best chance of rain tonight
looks to be for the NE Permian Basin as models develop storms that
track across there this evening.  Friday and Saturday storm chances
look less with only isolated for the east.  Storm chances increase
Sunday with the front in the area and additional chances of storms
in the extended ahead of the next upper trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry lightning is the main concern this afternoon across the RFW. RH's
haven't fallen as much as forecast, but gusty winds will be possible
in and around thunderstorms. RH recovery across SE New Mexico south
to the Marfa Plateau will generally be poor at night while recovery
elsewhere will be good. More windy and dry conditions are expected
Friday across western portions of the area. Will leave the current
Fire Weather Watch as it for Friday as portions of the watch may get
some rain this evening and need to be cancelled. Very dry and warm
conditions will continue into the weekend. Conditions improve
Saturday night and Sunday. Conditions look to improve considerably
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  98  69  95 /  30  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       60  96  58  97 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  99  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  98  66  98 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  95  57  94 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                          55  90  50  91 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           69 100  67  98 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         69  99  67  97 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           64 100  61 100 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

29/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
254 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-182000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
254 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018 /154 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
through early this evening mainly over the central and eastern
Permian Basin...Trans Pecos...the Davis Mountains...and through the
Stockton Plateau. The strongest of these storms will be capable of
producing large hail and strong and damaging winds. Areas of blowing
dust will occur in and near any thunderstorm.

The combination of dry fuels...very low relative humidities...hot
temperatures...and winds around 20 mph are resulting in critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect Thursday for the Guadalupe Mountains and the Southeastern New
Mexico plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The combination of dry fuels...very low relative humidities...hot
temperatures...and winds around 20 mph will result in critical fire
weather conditions again on Friday. The areas affected will be mainly
SE NM south the the Davis Mountains.

Thunderstorm chances ramp up Sunday and continue into mid week over
a good portion of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a 40 percent chance of Spotter Activation this afternoon
and early evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
328 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXZ060-061-067-068-172100-
Crane TX-Ector TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
328 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN
WARD...EASTERN WINKLER AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thorntonville, or near Monahans, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Pyote, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport
and Monahans Sandhills State Park.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 66 and 94.

LAT...LON 3139 10309 3166 10318 3201 10293 3150 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 239DEG 25KT 3161 10300

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXZ059-060-172130-
Loving TX-Winkler TX-
339 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WINKLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mentone, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mentone and Slash Ranch.

LAT...LON 3168 10359 3188 10370 3195 10333 3180 10329
      3169 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 268DEG 21KT 3180 10358

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
343 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXZ075-172130-
Pecos TX-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Fort Stockton, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Fort Stockton-Pecos County Airport and Firestone Test
Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 236 and 269.

LAT...LON 3072 10335 3093 10335 3096 10273 3066 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 268DEG 22KT 3080 10308

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
350 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             23 ESE CARLSBAD         32.28N 103.87W
05/17/2018  M0.88 INCH       Eddy               NM   PUBLIC

            WIPP SITE REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES.

&&

CMR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2018

NMZ033-172145-
Central Lea County NM-
258 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MDT...

At 257 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Humble City, or 11 miles west of Hobbs, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbs, Humble City, Industrial Airpark and Knowles.

LAT...LON 3267 10336 3272 10345 3300 10324 3293 10307
      3274 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 231DEG 32KT 3274 10335

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXZ060-061-172145-
Ector TX-Winkler TX-
400 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ECTOR...SOUTHWESTERN
ANDREWS AND SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Kermit, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsmith and Notrees.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 97 and 100.

LAT...LON 3208 10252 3171 10260 3167 10288 3181 10302
      3209 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 228DEG 27KT 3180 10288

10