River Flood Warning 22, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

402 
WGUS84 KMAF 072009
FLSMAF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Rio Grande below Presidio 5SE affecting Presidio County
  
.River levels at Presidio 5SE are well below flood stage and will
continue to fall. Therefore, the Flood Warning has been cancelled.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

No further statements are needed at this time.

&&

TXC377-072039-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180907T2118Z/
/PRDT2.1.ER.180906T2321Z.180907T0345Z.180907T0739Z.NO/
309 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande below Presidio 5SE.
* At  2PM Friday the stage was 5.5 feet (1.7 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at  2:39 AM Friday.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet (2.7 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.6 feet (1.1 meters)
  by tomorrow morning.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.8 feet (3.0 meters) on 
Sep 7 2018.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sat   Sat
                                                7PM   1AM   7AM   1PM
  Presidio 5SE    8.0  9.0    5.5   Fri  2 PM   4.0   3.8   3.6   3.5

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sat   Sat
                                                7PM   1AM   7AM   1PM
  Presidio 5SE    2.4  2.7    1.7   Fri  2 PM   1.2   1.2   1.1   1.1

&&

LAT...LON 2945 10435 2961 10430 2959 10425 2937 10394 2923 10401


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Thursday...Some places did
receive a plethora of rain...whereas others got zip. It certainly
has been humid (for West Texas/SE New Mexico) with dew pts
reaching 70. Scattered rain showers are ongoing over the Permian
Basin...southeast New Mexico...the Trans Pecos...and into the
Glass/Davis/Guadalupe Mtns. These showers have been tropical in
nature with little lightning. They have been very proficient rain
producers...even the "non-impressive" looking cells. The PWAT
value from this morning's 12Z MAF sounding was 1.59 inches. This
means any convection that develops will have the tendency to
produce rainfall rates on the order of 1- 2 in/hr. Localized flash
flooding will be the main concern tonight thru Friday.

Water Vapor RGB imagery shows a plume of moisture stretching from
the subtropical Pacific northeast thru Texas. At the
surface it's a big ol' mash-up...with all the various outflow
boundaries and sfc troughs it appears that the weak cold front is
in the Trans Pecos drifting south.

We are currently in a "col" with a ridge to the east and west of
the CWA. With the cold front stalling along the mtns and weak
impulses moving overhead in the very moist southwest flow aloft
convection will continue right thru Saturday. The best chances
will be tonight and Friday. Tossed about the idea for a Flash
Flood Watch but do not feel that heavy rain will be widespread
enough to warrant one. Temps will be...get this!...below normal
with highs hanging around 80.

But as is the case...unfortunately for us...this too shall pass.
The trough will begin to lift northeast as the ridge from the
Pacific builds east. Drier air will filter in Sat night/Sunday...
with rain chances confined to the Glass/Davis Mtns south to the
Intl border. Basically where the front will stall and eventually
wash out.

Next week looks to be dry with the ridge building in from the
west...eventually being centered over the Southern/Central Plains
by the end of next week. With mostly clear skies we know what that
means when it comes to temperatures. If you guessed above normal
that would be a good bet. Highs next week will be around 90 in the
Permian Basin with mid/upper 90s in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande
Valley. There could even be a bonus 100 along the Rio Grande mid
to late next week.

Strobin/Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  80  66  83 /  60  70  40  30
Carlsbad                       65  82  64  84 /  40  50  50  20
Dryden                         71  86  70  84 /  60  60  70  60
Fort Stockton                  66  81  65  81 /  60  60  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 60  77  59  79 /  50  50  50  20
Hobbs                          63  79  61  82 /  40  60  50  20
Marfa                          60  76  60  75 /  50  60  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  80  65  83 /  50  70  40  30
Odessa                         66  81  64  83 /  50  60  40  30
Wink                           68  83  66  85 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

27/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
210 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018 /110 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across many areas
today and tonight. Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly across areas that have received recent rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over much of
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas Friday and Saturday.
Rainfall could be heavy at times, with localized flash flooding
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     FLASH FLOOD      29 W FORT STOCKTON      30.89N 103.38W
09/06/2018                   Pecos              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER RESCUE ON THE SERVICE ROAD ALONG I-10 AT MILE
            MARKER 229.

&&

RHLUCHAN