Tornado Warning 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

111 
WWUS54 KLZK 241700
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1100 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

ARC113-127-241715-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180224T1715Z/
Scott AR-Polk AR-
1100 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES...
    
At 1059 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Queen Wilhelmina State Park, or 8 miles north of
Mena, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Waldron...                        Acorn...
Y City...                         Rich Mountain...
Needmore...                       Boles...
Eagleton...                       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 9435 3491 9407 3469 9387 3469 9388
      3467 9388 3466 9391 3467 9393 3466 9393
      3464 9431 3467 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 233DEG 43KT 3470 9428 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Brown

590 
WWUS54 KLZK 241712
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1112 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

ARC113-127-241722-
/O.EXP.KLZK.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180224T1715Z/
Scott AR-Polk AR-
1112 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 AM CST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened, and no longer
appears capable of producing a tornado. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However small hail is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for western
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3475 9435 3491 9407 3469 9387 3469 9388
      3467 9388 3466 9391 3467 9393 3466 9393
      3464 9431 3467 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 233DEG 43KT 3478 9415 

$$

Brown

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...
Areas of low clouds/some fog will be noted this morning across
much of Arkansas, with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions. As
the day progresses, fog will dissipate and south/southwest
winds will increase. Showers/thunderstorms will also become
numerous, with strong/damaging wind gusts possible over the
southeast half of the state this afternoon/early evening.

Precipitation will wind down tonight from the west, and clouds will
dissipate. VFR conditions will return to most areas. Showers may
linger overnight in the southeast.

Winds will be south/southwest at 10 to 20 mph today, with some gusts
over 30 mph. Winds will shift to the west/northwest late this
afternoon and tonight. Gusty conditions will continue this evening,
with winds gradually decreasing overnight. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
The focus lately has been on heavy/excessive rain and flooding
across Arkansas. This is still a concern in the near term, but
so is severe weather.

A potent storm system will track from the Texas panhandle this
morning into eastern Missouri by this evening. The system will
drag a cold front into the region, with widespread
showers/thunderstorms ahead of the front.

As the system tracks through the southern Plains, a warm front
over southern sections of the state will slowly lift to the north.
There is plenty of low clouds/fog/drizzle north of the front
early this morning, and this will continue for a few hours. This
boundary will make it into northern sections of the state by this
afternoon. The heaviest rain will be along/north of the front,
with severe storms farther south.

For now, have locally more than two inches of rain in the forecast
from Mena to Morrilton and Batesville. Just north and south of
this band, have one to two inch amounts, with half inch to inch
totals in the southeast.

Severe storms will mainly affect the southeast half of Arkansas
this afternoon. Most unstable CAPE values are in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range, with 0-1km helicity values over 300 m2/s2. There will
likely be a line of storms, and it will move quickly. Would be
worried about discreet cells/supercells ahead of the line, and
rotation in cells along the line. In brief, the main concerns
are strong/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Precipitation will mostly come to an end and the sky will clear
tonight as the front slides to the east. There will be lingering
chances of showers in the southeast, and this will continue into
Sunday. The period will finish with dry conditions Sunday night.

As far as temperatures, readings will climb well above average
today. Readings will be closer to seasonal by Sunday/Sunday night,
but still above average.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
High pressure will be in place at the surface across the region at
the start of the long term portion of the forecast and will continue
to remain nearby through Tuesday as it begins to shift east. Zonal
flow aloft will begin to transition more out of the southwest by
Tuesday as a trough is set to dive south of the four corners region
and approach Arkansas from the west.

Moisture will begin to return to the state and temperatures will
warm as well. A warm front moving north over the state will signal
the major change at the surface on Wednesday, before a developing
low pressure system and trailing cold front look to move nearby and
through the area Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead
of this front, with severe weather a possibility.

Behind this front, cooler but near normal temperatures will appear
in the forecast along with drier conditions for the time being.
There is still some uncertainty with regards to location and timing
of the primary shortwave aloft and surface features as well.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  41  60  38 / 100  80   0  10
Camden AR         76  46  64  42 /  90  80  20  10
Harrison AR       64  35  60  36 / 100  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  43  61  40 / 100  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  73  44  61  40 / 100  80  10  10
Monticello AR     78  50  62  43 /  70  90  20  20
Mount Ida AR      71  39  62  39 / 100  30  10  10
Mountain Home AR  65  36  61  36 / 100  40   0   0
Newport AR        71  43  59  39 / 100  80   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     76  46  60  42 /  80  90  10  10
Russellville AR   69  37  61  38 / 100  30   0   0
Searcy AR         72  43  60  39 / 100  80  10  10
Stuttgart AR      74  45  60  42 /  80  90  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Short Term...46 / Long Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
600 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of low clouds and fog will be noted across much of Arkansas
this morning. As the day progresses, fog will dissipate, and showers
and thunderstorms will become widespread.

Rain will be heavy at times, especially in northern and central
sections of the state. Rainfall totals from one to two inches will
be common, with locally higher amounts. In the southeast, half inch
to inch amounts are in the forecast.

Given recent heavy to excessive rain, any additional precipitation
will aggravate high water issues that already exist across much of
the area.

Across the southeast half of Arkansas, there is a potential of
severe weather this afternoon and early this evening. A fast moving
line of storms is expected, with strong to damaging winds possible.
Some storms may show signs of rotation, and this could lead to
isolated tornadoes.

Gusty south to southwest winds are expected in the southern
and eastern counties through this evening. Wind speeds will
average 15 to 25 mph, and gusts could exceed 30 mph in places.
Caution is advised on areas lakes.

Most precipitation will end tonight, with drier air building into
the region. Showers may linger in the southeast overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Additional heavy rainfall will be possible by the middle of next
week as showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. Severe
weather may also become a concern as well. However, details
regarding the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat remain
uncertain this far out. Even so...river flooding will likely be
continuing from the current heavy rain event.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed today in anticipation of severe
weather expected across the area this afternoon through the evening
hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1044 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

ARZ037-040-241730-
Polk AR-Scott AR-
1044 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHERN POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CST...

At 1044 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain Fork, or 15 miles west of Mena, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Waldron...
Beauchamp...                      Mountain Fork...
Polk County Fairgrounds...        Mena Intermountain Airport...
Queen Wilhelmina State Park...    Acorn...
Black Fork...                     Winfield...
Ink...                            Potter...
Boles...                          Dallas...
Shady Grove...                    Rocky...
Black Fork Mountain Wilderness... Hon...
Camp Pioneer...                   Y City...

LAT...LON 3480 9445 3503 9405 3502 9398 3467 9388
      3467 9393 3460 9393 3448 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 233DEG 43KT 3459 9450

Brown