Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
224 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...24/18Z TAF CYCLE

Warm front wl cont to lift NWD acrs N AR this aftn. Expect IFR
conds N of the bndry, with mainly MVFR conds noted elsewhere.
Convection wl cont to expand in coverage to the E this aftn and
this evening ahead of an apchg CDFNT. The main squall line wl
push into Cntrl AR arnd 24/22Z and out of SE AR arnd 25/03z.
Expect gusty winds and OCNL IFR conds with storms. VFR conds wl
return fm W to E later tngt as drier air works into the FA. /44/
&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 345 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night The focus lately has
been on heavy/excessive rain and flooding across Arkansas. This is
still a concern in the near term, but so is severe weather.

A potent storm system will track from the Texas panhandle this
morning into eastern Missouri by this evening. The system will
drag a cold front into the region, with widespread
showers/thunderstorms ahead of the front.

As the system tracks through the southern Plains, a warm front
over southern sections of the state will slowly lift to the north.
There is plenty of low clouds/fog/drizzle north of the front
early this morning, and this will continue for a few hours. This
boundary will make it into northern sections of the state by this
afternoon. The heaviest rain will be along/north of the front,
with severe storms farther south.

For now, have locally more than two inches of rain in the forecast
from Mena to Morrilton and Batesville. Just north and south of
this band, have one to two inch amounts, with half inch to inch
totals in the southeast.

Severe storms will mainly affect the southeast half of Arkansas
this afternoon. Most unstable CAPE values are in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range, with 0-1km helicity values over 300 m2/s2. There will
likely be a line of storms, and it will move quickly. Would be
worried about discreet cells/supercells ahead of the line, and
rotation in cells along the line. In brief, the main concerns
are strong/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Precipitation will mostly come to an end and the sky will clear
tonight as the front slides to the east. There will be lingering
chances of showers in the southeast, and this will continue into
Sunday. The period will finish with dry conditions Sunday night.

As far as temperatures, readings will climb well above average
today. Readings will be closer to seasonal by Sunday/Sunday night,
but still above average.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
High pressure will be in place at the surface across the region at
the start of the long term portion of the forecast and will continue
to remain nearby through Tuesday as it begins to shift east. Zonal
flow aloft will begin to transition more out of the southwest by
Tuesday as a trough is set to dive south of the four corners region
and approach Arkansas from the west.

Moisture will begin to return to the state and temperatures will
warm as well. A warm front moving north over the state will signal
the major change at the surface on Wednesday, before a developing
low pressure system and trailing cold front look to move nearby and
through the area Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead
of this front, with severe weather a possibility.

Behind this front, cooler but near normal temperatures will appear
in the forecast along with drier conditions for the time being.
There is still some uncertainty with regards to location and timing
of the primary shortwave aloft and surface features as well.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
203 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-252015-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
203 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight
as a strong storm system moves through the state. There is a
potential of severe weather this afternoon and early this evening.
A fast moving line of storms is expected, with strong to damaging
winds possible. Some storms may show signs of rotation, and this
could lead to isolated tornadoes.

Rain will be heavy at times, especially in northern and central
sections of the state. Rainfall totals from one to two inches will
be common, with locally higher amounts. In the southeast, half
inch to inch amounts are in the forecast.

Given recent heavy to excessive rain, any additional precipitation
will aggravate high water issues that already exist across much of
the area.

Gusty south to southwest winds are expected in the southern
and eastern counties through this evening. Wind speeds will
average 15 to 25 mph, and gusts could exceed 30 mph in places.
Caution is advised on areas lakes.

Most precipitation will end tonight, with drier air building into
the region. Showers may linger in the southeast overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Additional heavy rainfall will be possible by the middle of next
week as showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. Severe
weather may also become a concern as well. However, details
regarding the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat remain
uncertain this far out. Even so...river flooding will likely be
continuing from the current heavy rain event.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed today in anticipation of severe
weather expected across the area this afternoon through the evening
hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
140 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

ARZ012-013-021>023-030-242030-
Pope AR-Searcy AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Van Buren AR-Logan AR-
140 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...EASTERN
JOHNSON...SOUTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN SEARCY...NORTHWESTERN VAN
BUREN AND NORTHERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

At 140 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area
to 7 miles south of Rosetta to near Knoxville. Movement was east at
35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Lamar...
Dover...                          Knoxville...
Hector...                         Marsena...
Witts Spring...                   Moore...
Dabney...                         Point Peter...
Devils Knob...                    Bohannon...
Imo...                            Holman...
Rosetta...                        Dillen...
Broomfield...                     Solo...
Smyrna...                         Eula...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for central,
western and north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3560 9271 3547 9278 3546 9283 3546 9285
      3545 9285 3532 9349 3560 9342 3588 9339
      3597 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 270DEG 31KT 3591 9331 3561 9335 3539 9341

Brown

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
153 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DRIGGS                  35.24N  93.77W
02/24/2018                   LOGAN              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN DRIGGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800083

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
154 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANNIS                 34.24N  94.33W
02/24/2018                   POLK               AR   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF GRANNIS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800084

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
158 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND GST     MENA                    34.59N  94.24W
02/24/2018  E60 MPH          POLK               AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800085

55

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