Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen in the next 24 hours.
Thursday evening convection over northern AR will continue through
the evening, and gradually move southeast later tonight and affect
parts of central and southern AR. The strong convection will produce
MVFR conditions with elevated and gusty winds and other hazards
associated with thunderstorms. Winds will mostly be south to
southwest at 5 to 15 mph, except stronger and variable around
storms. Friday will also have a chance of convection over parts of
northern, central and southern AR in the morning, then pushing south
through the day. Overall VFR, except the patchy MVFR with storms.
South to southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, while stronger and variable
around storms. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 308 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Convection that was apchg AR fm the W this mrng quickly diminished
before midday. Breezy S/SW winds were noted acrs the FA this aftn,
under mostly sunny skies. Mid aftn temps were generally in the upper
80s and lower 90s. Heat indices were held in check as well over most
locations due to the increased low lvl mixing.

Heading into tngt, the focus wl be on convective trends. The
aforementioned convection this mrng left an outflow boundary acrs
Srn MO. Hi-Res model data cont to suggest that SHRA/TSRA wl rapidly
form along this bndry over the next few hrs as a capping inversion
weakens. The models have been a bit too quick initiating the storms
this aftn, as 18Z special soundings fm LZK and SGF show a rather
stout cap still in place over the region. However, SB Cape values
were AOA 2500 J/KG.

The overall trend is for the convection to evolve into an MCS by
tngt and work S/SE into Nrn AR. Primary concerns rmn large hail and
damaging winds with the stronger storms. The activity is being show
to maintain itself as it eventually works into parts of central and
eastern AR late tngt and Fri mrng. Lingering small scale boundaries
wl determine where additional convection wl be focused on Fri, so
kept PoPs in CHC category for now.

Hot and humid conditions wl cont heading into the weekend. Sat looks
to be the hottest day as a cold front wl be approaching fm the NW
later in the day. Used a blend of the model solutions regarding the
placement of the front into NW AR late in day. Convective chances wl
incrs fm the NW Sat aftn, with the better chances just beyond this
fcst PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure buckling to the
southwest, and a cold front pushing through Arkansas from the Plains
Saturday night. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front,
followed by slightly cooler/drier/more comfortable air late in the
weekend and early next week. Even so, readings will remain above
average.

Heading toward the middle of the week, it appears the ridge will
start building back toward the area. As this happens, the
aforementioned front will lift back into the region from the
southwest. Given this, have small chances of thunder across the
southern/western counties on Tuesday/Wednesday.

By the end of the period, the ridge axis holds over the southern
Plains and southern Rockies and away from us. While it will be
hotter around here, it could be worse.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
715 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
715 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening through Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over Missouri this evening,
and gradually drift southeast into northern Arkansas, and eventually
into central Arkansas. Some of the storms will be severe. The main
threats will be damaging winds and large hail. As the storms move
southeast, the overall threat of severe storms will very slowly
lower. Also, locally heavy rain will also occur, with some locations
picking up more than an inch of rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

It will be hot and humid Friday and Saturday. Afternoon heat index
values will range from the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. The main
areas that will see the highest values will be central and southern
Arkansas. Extra precaution should be taken to minimize the impact of
the heat.

Also, a cold front will move through the state from the north
Saturday night, with slightly cooler and drier air in its wake. The
front may trigger a few strong to severe thunderstorms as it crosses
the area.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight. Severe
storm reports are requested.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46

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