Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1140 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

.AVIATION...

Widespread RA with embedded +RA remains across central AR with
bouncy flight categories, both for vsby and cig. This trend will
continue through the overnight with +RA at LLQ by 01/08Z.
Widespread MVFR will continue with IFR and worse in rain bands
through 01/10-12Z. Some degradation of cigs possible at northern
terminals around and after 01/12Z, but remained optimistic in
TAFs. Gusty N winds expected through the day Thurs. with gradual
improvement N to S during the late AM into the PM. Confidence in
timing and restrictions remains low.

Cooper

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018)
DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the potential for
heavy rain in the next 24 hours and the potential for flooding or
flash flooding over areas that are already saturated or rivers in
flood or close to flood stage. Also a slight and marginal risk of
severe storms this evening to early overnight as the weather
system and cold front move through AR.

This afternoon the area of light to moderate convection has
continued to move east across, earlier over the northern half,
while this afternoon more central and southern AR. Most rain
amounts have been light to moderate, with so far less than an
inch. The rain was in response to a warm front lifting across AR,
which was not located near the AR and MO stateline, and some
upper level short wave energy moving through the mean upper
southwest to northeast flow. Models do gradually move the main
lift from the north to central and southern areas later today,
tonight and into Thursday until the cold front pushes through AR
and clears the rain east. Precip water values have come up to well
over an inch, and the heavy rain threat remains over AR, and a
moderate to high risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
with this system. Also, the slight to marginal risk of strong to
severe storms is forecast to be focused over the southern half of
AR, when the strongest lift moves across AR this evening to early
night, and the best instability. Winds and hail are the primary
threats, while a low tornado threat will be seen. Temperatures had
warmed to the lower 70s south, while 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

The forecast will start with a high chance of rain and
thunderstorms, with the threat of heavy rain. Will not include
some severe storms possible due to low threat. The heaviest rain
threat is forecast to center over central to southern AR this
evening and tonight, as the the upper lift is focused over central
to southern AR, and the cold front also gradually moves through
the state. 2 to 4 inches of rain is forecast in the next 24 hours,
with isolated areas seeing up to 5 inches over eastern to
southeastern areas. This will lead to continued flooding on area
rivers and in those areas that are already flooding. Lows tonight
will mostly be in the 50s. Thursday will see the system move out
of AR, taking the rain out of the state. A west to northwest wind
flow will usher in drier and a bit cooler air into the state.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s to 60s. Surface high pressure
will then build in over the region, and bring dry weather
conditions on Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

An upper ridge will be over the Plains to begin the long term period
with upper low pressure systems over the Pacific Northwest and New
England. The High will slowly move east through the weekend and
reach the east coast Monday. An upper low moves into the Plains
Sunday and into the Midwest Monday. Northwest flow sets up over
Arkansas for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dry conditions with high pressure are expected for Friday night
through Saturday night. Rain chances return to the west Sunday and
spread eastward with an upper level system. A cold front will move
through on Monday and the showers should end in the southeast Monday
morning. Monday night through Wednesday will be dry with high
pressure in place and a northwest flow over the area. Near normal
temperatures will continue through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.

&&

Aviation...COOPER

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
352 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-012200-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
352 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the night
as the next weather system and cold front move through the region.
Rain will be heaviest over central and southern Arkansas where
another two to more than four inches of rain could fall.

This additional rainfall will only aid in the worsening flood
conditions already in place from the most recent heavy rainfall
event across the area.

There will also be the possibility of isolated severe storms, with
hail and winds the main threats. An isolated tornado may also
develop. The main threat area will be over the southern half of
Arkansas late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Rain will end during the day Thursday. Dry weather is forecast the
rest of Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The chances of rain will be
back in the forecast Sunday with the next weather system to affect
the region.

Due to the recent prolonged period of heavy rainfall, river stages
are expected to remain high into next week. Flooding will continue
in several river basins, including the Black, White, Cache,
Ouachita, and Saline Rivers.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be necessary late this afternoon and this
evening, given the possibility of severe weather.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
116 AM CST THU MAR 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SUMPTER                 33.49N  92.05W
02/28/2018                   BRADLEY            AR   911 CALL CENTER

            PORTIONS OF HWY 8 SOUTH CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800121

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
118 AM CST THU MAR 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N DIXIE               35.09N  91.36W
02/28/2018                   WOODRUFF           AR   911 CALL CENTER

            HWY 33 SOUTH CLOSED NORTH OF DIXIE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800122

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
122 AM CST THU MAR 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARMEL                  33.54N  92.07W
02/28/2018                   BRADLEY            AR   911 CALL CENTER

            PORTIONS OF HWY 8 SOUTH CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800121

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
124 AM CST THU MAR 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ARKADELPHIA             34.12N  93.05W
03/01/2018                   CLARK              AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 51 BRIDGE ACROSS THE OUACHITA RIVER CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800123

COOPER