Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Lubbock, TX

237 
WWUS54 KLUB 200354
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1054 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

TXC189-200430-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180520T0430Z/
Hale TX-
1054 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HALE COUNTY...

At 1054 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Plainview,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Plainview and Seth Ward. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 10175 3415 10187 3431 10185 3431 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 234DEG 24KT 3417 10176 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

MCZ

076 
WWUS54 KLUB 200405
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1105 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

TXC189-200415-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-180520T0430Z/
Hale TX-
1105 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3408 10175 3415 10187 3431 10185 3431 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 192DEG 9KT 3420 10175 

$$

MCZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
633 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR should collapse to MVFR in low ceilings toward sunrise Sun
well behind a cold front. Until then, TS may graze the LBB
airspace with a higher probability at CDS, before a greater
coverage of TS develop with the FROPA near midnight. This latter
threat of TS still appears greatest at LBB, although PVW is also
at risk for some lightning overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Lift was in no short supply this afternoon as a well-defined
stationary front was found draped from Childress southwest to
Levelland and Plains as of 1 PM. Aloft, water vapor imagery
revealed an impulse in SW flow approaching from southeast NM and
far West TX. Add to this the RRQ to an upper jet and a very modest
EML (per Lubbock Airport AMDAR profiles) and the stage is primed
for scattered to numerous storm development. Similar to Friday,
an axis of elevated convection early this afternoon is expected to
become more surface based by mid afternoon and make full use of
2000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Unlike Friday, today we have a deeper
fetch of moisture advection underway (as noted by an axis of
stratus aligned from Del Rio north to near Big Spring) which will
limit the degree to which moisture mixes out this afternoon.
Although oriented parallel to the boundary, deep layer shear
values around 35 knots will promote storm organization, including
some mesos given favorable backing of low level winds for
maintaining storm relative inflow. Modes overall should favor
linear structures given minimal capping and consolidating
outflows over time. This argues the greatest threat will be
downbursts as the significant hail potential should be restricted
to individual cells early in the event.

Following an inevitable MCS development off the Caprock this
evening, a reinforcing cold front will drop south and aid in
focusing a second round of storms, mainly after midnight. What
looks particularly interesting about this setup is the presence of
a 30-40 knot LLJ feeding rich mixing ratios northward overnight.
This isentropic ascent should focus numerous elevated storms
overnight, with some likelihood for training precip and heavy
rain. Majority of CAMs and global models indicate such a scenario
as PWATs rise to over 1 inch. This precip should wane from N-S
toward daybreak Sunday as the layer of isentropic ascent shifts
south. Widespread stratus trapped along the frontal inversion and
cool NE winds will make for a pleasantly cool day area wide. PoPs
were dried out in most areas by the afternoon as saturated depths
thin out and omega vanishes. Prospects for additional storms
arriving Sun night from sern NM remain decent, but not definite as
this will hinge on the strength of the LLJ/isentropic forcing and
any pre-existing storms that manage to form in the easterly
upslope of NM. Weak upper ridging during this time may also limit
the coverage of precip, which should amplify a bit on Monday ahead
of increasingly cyclonic SW flow for Mon night and Tue. Broad SE
winds in the low levels during this time will keep the dryline
well to our west, which may also curtail PoPs during the day and
make for more of a nocturnal threat of storms and perhaps a
diminished severe threat. By later week, weakening winds aloft in
response to anticyclonic flow and sharper ridging atop the region
should bring a gradual demise to PoPs and spell a return to drier
and somewhat hotter conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
436 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

TXZ021>044-200815-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
436 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There will be a risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
east a Tahoka to Plainview to Childress line. Hail to the size of
baseballs and wind gusts to 70 mph along with a tornado or two
are possible. A risk for large hail and severe wind gusts along
with localized flooding will spread over most areas tonight as a
cold front moves into the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong or severe thunderstorms also may develop Monday through
Wednesday as an unsettled pattern holds over our region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1007 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HAIL             3 ENE WOLFFORTH         33.52N 101.97W
05/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800154

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 SW LUBBOCK            33.49N 101.97W
05/19/2018  M1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800155

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             WHITE RIVER LAKE        33.48N 101.10W
05/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       CROSBY             TX   PUBLIC

            RELAYED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN WHITE RIVER
            LAKE. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800156

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1018 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             5 S LUBBOCK             33.50N 101.88W
05/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800157

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             3 NW WOODROW            33.48N 101.88W
05/19/2018  E0.88 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800158

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1021 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     HAIL             6 SSW LUBBOCK           33.50N 101.92W
05/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800159

LUB