Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Lubbock, TX

725 
WWUS54 KLUB 200202
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
902 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

TXC269-200211-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-180520T0215Z/
King TX-
902 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN KING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3398 10045 3369 10059 3373 10077 3410 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 213DEG 53KT 3382 10061 

$$

TXC101-125-345-200215-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-180520T0215Z/
Dickens TX-Motley TX-Cottle TX-
902 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
COTTLE COUNTIES...

At 901 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dumont, or 18
miles southeast of Matador, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Dickens...southeastern Motley and west central Cottle
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 10045 3369 10059 3373 10077 3410 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 213DEG 53KT 3382 10061 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

55

729 
WWUS54 KLUB 200210
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

TXC101-125-345-200220-
/O.EXP.KLUB.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-180520T0215Z/
Dickens TX-Motley TX-Cottle TX-
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKENS...
SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY AND WEST CENTRAL COTTLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
915 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3398 10045 3369 10059 3373 10077 3410 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 216DEG 26KT 3387 10057 

$$

55

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
633 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR should collapse to MVFR in low ceilings toward sunrise Sun
well behind a cold front. Until then, TS may graze the LBB
airspace with a higher probability at CDS, before a greater
coverage of TS develop with the FROPA near midnight. This latter
threat of TS still appears greatest at LBB, although PVW is also
at risk for some lightning overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Lift was in no short supply this afternoon as a well-defined
stationary front was found draped from Childress southwest to
Levelland and Plains as of 1 PM. Aloft, water vapor imagery
revealed an impulse in SW flow approaching from southeast NM and
far West TX. Add to this the RRQ to an upper jet and a very modest
EML (per Lubbock Airport AMDAR profiles) and the stage is primed
for scattered to numerous storm development. Similar to Friday,
an axis of elevated convection early this afternoon is expected to
become more surface based by mid afternoon and make full use of
2000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Unlike Friday, today we have a deeper
fetch of moisture advection underway (as noted by an axis of
stratus aligned from Del Rio north to near Big Spring) which will
limit the degree to which moisture mixes out this afternoon.
Although oriented parallel to the boundary, deep layer shear
values around 35 knots will promote storm organization, including
some mesos given favorable backing of low level winds for
maintaining storm relative inflow. Modes overall should favor
linear structures given minimal capping and consolidating
outflows over time. This argues the greatest threat will be
downbursts as the significant hail potential should be restricted
to individual cells early in the event.

Following an inevitable MCS development off the Caprock this
evening, a reinforcing cold front will drop south and aid in
focusing a second round of storms, mainly after midnight. What
looks particularly interesting about this setup is the presence of
a 30-40 knot LLJ feeding rich mixing ratios northward overnight.
This isentropic ascent should focus numerous elevated storms
overnight, with some likelihood for training precip and heavy
rain. Majority of CAMs and global models indicate such a scenario
as PWATs rise to over 1 inch. This precip should wane from N-S
toward daybreak Sunday as the layer of isentropic ascent shifts
south. Widespread stratus trapped along the frontal inversion and
cool NE winds will make for a pleasantly cool day area wide. PoPs
were dried out in most areas by the afternoon as saturated depths
thin out and omega vanishes. Prospects for additional storms
arriving Sun night from sern NM remain decent, but not definite as
this will hinge on the strength of the LLJ/isentropic forcing and
any pre-existing storms that manage to form in the easterly
upslope of NM. Weak upper ridging during this time may also limit
the coverage of precip, which should amplify a bit on Monday ahead
of increasingly cyclonic SW flow for Mon night and Tue. Broad SE
winds in the low levels during this time will keep the dryline
well to our west, which may also curtail PoPs during the day and
make for more of a nocturnal threat of storms and perhaps a
diminished severe threat. By later week, weakening winds aloft in
response to anticyclonic flow and sharper ridging atop the region
should bring a gradual demise to PoPs and spell a return to drier
and somewhat hotter conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
436 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

TXZ021>044-200815-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
436 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There will be a risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
east a Tahoka to Plainview to Childress line. Hail to the size of
baseballs and wind gusts to 70 mph along with a tornado or two
are possible. A risk for large hail and severe wind gusts along
with localized flooding will spread over most areas tonight as a
cold front moves into the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong or severe thunderstorms also may develop Monday through
Wednesday as an unsettled pattern holds over our region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
829 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             3 NW WOODROW            33.48N 101.88W
05/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800146

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
832 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             7 SW LUBBOCK            33.50N 101.96W
05/19/2018  E2.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THE LARGE HAIL KNOCKED OUT A SKYLIGHT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800147

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
834 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             3 NW WOODROW            33.48N 101.88W
05/19/2018  E2.50 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800148

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
837 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             5 S LUBBOCK             33.50N 101.88W
05/19/2018  E3.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800149

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
845 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             8 S LUBBOCK             33.46N 101.88W
05/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR 136TH AND AVE U

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800150

LUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
851 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             7 SW LUBBOCK            33.50N 101.96W
05/19/2018  E3.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800151

LUB