Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

October 7, 2018Saint Charles County, Saint Louis County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this special weather statement at Oct 7, 2018, 3:53 PM CDT for Saint Charles County, Saint Louis County, Missouri. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 7, 2018, 3:53 PM CDT (20:53 UTC)
Expired: Oct 7, 2018, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO

Counties Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 265 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 470 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 7, 3:35 PM CDT, 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 7, 3:35 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
335 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

Shortwave lifting northeastward through central Missouri this
afternoon. This combined with surface based CAPES in excess of 2500
J/kg, 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 40 kts and PWs over 1.7 inches
will continue to generate strong to severe storms through this
evening. The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail and
locally heavy rainfall. SPC has kept majority of forecast area in
marginal risk through tonight, though best chances of severe storms
will be now through 03z Monday.

Late tonight the warm front should lift north of forecast area with
precipitation tapering off by daybreak. Dry and above normal
temperatures expected on Monday with highs in the 80s, about 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

Mdls remain in good agreement overall thru Wed. During this time,
pattern also remains largely unchanged with a large upper ridge over
the ern U.S. with a deepening trof across the Rockies.

Mdls have this trof ejecting into the Plains late Tues and reaching
the region on Wed. Widespread rain shud accompany this trof and have
raised PoPs Tues night into Wed. Otherwise, have trended twd the
warmer MOS for temps on Tues with sly flow in the low levels. There
is some question regarding cloud cover, so have not trended too warm
at this time.

As the trof and accompanying sfc fnt moves thru the region on Wed,
much cooler air will push into the region. Expect more seasonable
temps thru the remainder of the forecast period. However, on Fri,
another upper trof and associated cdfnt will push thru the region.
Mdls bring another round of rain with this system as well. If timing
remains similar with updates, going forecast for max temps may be on
the warm side.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

IFR flight conditions over KCOU and KUIN will improve through the
afternoon hours as warm front lifts northward through region.
Otherwise, main forecast issue will be chances of showers and
thunderstorms. As of 17z, storms have already developed and will
lift northward through KCOU and KUIN tapering off by 04z Monday.
For rest of TAF sites, VFR flight conditions expected with
isolated showers and thunderstorms between 20z and 23z this
afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR flight conditions expected across the St. Louis metro area
through entire forecast period. Could see isolated showers and
thunderstorms develop between 20z and 23z this afternoon, so have
vicinity thunderstorm mention in TAFs. Winds to persist from the
southeast to south.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     70  88  70  87 /  40   5   5  40
Quincy          67  84  67  84 /  90  10  20  60
Columbia        68  85  67  84 /  70  10  10  50
Jefferson City  69  87  68  85 /  60  10  10  50
Salem           69  87  68  87 /   5   5   5  20
Farmington      68  85  68  83 /  10   5   5  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 7, 3:53 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
353 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
353 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through this evening. A few of these storms
may be severe through early evening. The main threats will be
damaging winds to 60 mph, large hail and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms again on
Tuesday, especially Tuesday night. The main threat will be damaging
winds to 60 mph. The chance for thunderstorms will persist through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

Byrd

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 7, 2:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
248 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE MYKEE              38.68N 92.10W
10/07/2018  M1.67 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TILLY

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 2:58 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
258 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

ILZ098-MOZ052-060>063-065-072045-
Calhoun IL-St. Louis MO-St. Charles MO-Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-
Lincoln MO-Warren MO-
258 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...ST.
CHARLES...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wright City to near Union. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
O'Fallon, St. Charles, St. Peters, Chesterfield, Wildwood, Ballwin,
Wentzville, Lake St. Louis, Washington, Dardenne Prairie, Union,
Eureka, Ellisville, Pacific, Weldon Spring, St. Clair, Wright City,
Cottleville, Byrnes Mill and Clarkson Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 239 and 266.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 200 and 225.

This also includes  Babler Memorial State Park, Route 66 State Park,
and Robertsville State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 9059 3907 9058 3905 9059 3903 9057
      3901 9058 3898 9055 3844 9056 3832 9104
      3888 9103 3911 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 242DEG 17KT 3884 9095 3843 9096

Carney

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 3:20 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
320 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

MOZ060>062-065-072-073-072100-
St. Charles MO-Washington MO-Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
Crawford MO-
320 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Miramiguoa Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Union, Sullivan, Pacific, St. Clair, Gray Summit, Villa
Ridge, Parkway, Augusta, Miramiguoa Park, Lonedell, St. Cloud,
Stanton, Robertsville, Catawissa, Moselle and Piney Park.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 225 and 257.

This also includes  Robertsville State Park and Meramec State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 9124 3864 9097 3851 9073 3848 9074
      3848 9072 3847 9071 3847 9070 3846 9068
      3845 9069 3845 9066 3847 9066 3846 9064
      3809 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 214DEG 36KT 3821 9109

Carney

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 3:53 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
353 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

MOZ061>063-065-072145-
St. Louis MO-St. Charles MO-Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-
353 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN ST.
LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Villa Ridge, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
O'Fallon, St. Peters, Chesterfield, Wildwood, Ballwin, Wentzville,
Kirkwood, Maryland Heights, Manchester, Creve Coeur, Lake St. Louis,
Washington, Dardenne Prairie, Town and Country, Union, Eureka,
Ellisville, Ladue, Des Peres and Pacific.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 242 and 274.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 212 and 217.

This also includes  Babler Memorial State Park, Route 66 State Park,
Castlewood State Park, and Robertsville State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9107 3855 9099 3855 9097 3859 9097
      3886 9078 3862 9036 3829 9082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 223DEG 26KT 3843 9087

Carney

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 6, 7:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	52 min
Oct 7, 5:33 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	LSX	Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade and 9 more	3 hr
Oct 7, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin	46 min
Oct 7, 2:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Montgomery, Warren	51 min
Oct 7, 2:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Callaway, Cole, Osage	22 min
Oct 7, 2:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Saint Charles	47 min
Oct 7, 3:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles	26 min
Oct 7, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Franklin	40 min
Oct 7, 4:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Montgomery	4 hr
Oct 7, 4:54 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Montgomery	5 hr
Oct 7, 5:38 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Callaway	5 hr
Oct 7, 5:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Osage	48 min
Oct 7, 6:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Montgomery	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.