Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS St. Louis, MO

511 
WWUS53 KLSX 142249
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
549 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOC163-142258-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180514T2300Z/
Pike MO-
549 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Missouri. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
also remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3939 9062 3918 9060 3914 9062 3907 9058
      3869 9054 3868 9067 3853 9091 3856 9100
      3861 9105 3860 9112 3864 9123 3903 9097
      3919 9072 3928 9074 3939 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 269DEG 15KT 3909 9060 3877 9080 

$$

ILC013-MOC113-183-219-142300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180514T2300Z/
Calhoun IL-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-Warren MO-
549 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CALHOUN...ST. CHARLES...EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN
COUNTIES...

At 548 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hardin to Lake St. Louis, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
O'Fallon, St. Charles, St. Peters, Chesterfield, Wentzville, Lake St.
Louis, Dardenne Prairie, Troy, Warrenton, Weldon Spring, Wright City,
Cottleville, St. Paul, Moscow Mills, Winfield, Marthasville, Hardin,
Truesdale, Innsbrook and New Melle.

This also includes  Cuivre River State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 199 and 225.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 9062 3918 9060 3914 9062 3907 9058
      3869 9054 3868 9067 3853 9091 3856 9100
      3861 9105 3860 9112 3864 9123 3903 9097
      3919 9072 3928 9074 3939 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 269DEG 15KT 3909 9060 3877 9080 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Tilly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
319 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

(Tonight)

At least a loosely organized MCS is expected to be nearing the
Mississippi River by early this evening, with damaging wind gusts
the primary threat. Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest some
weakening as it heads ESE into IL. Not sure how fast this will occur
since environment is only modestly less favorable in terms of
shear/CAPE. However, it does seem plausible that the complex may
become more outflow dominant by that point in time and space, which
would lead to some weakening.

More uncertainty for the rest of the tonight as model guidance is a
bit all over the place. Some form of additional thunderstorm
development appears likely to our west later on this evening along
the synoptic boundary, but exactly where and when is difficult to
discern. Any convection that does move back into western sections of
the forecast area should weaken as it heads eastward into less
unstable air, especially across central portions of the forecast
area where first complex of storms is expected to transverse.

Lows tonight will once again be on the mild side ahead of the cold
front. Forecast lows tonight range from the mid to upper 60s, which
is slightly cooler than this morning.

(Tuesday)

Much of Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours appears
largely quiet/dry. Another potential round of showers and
thunderstorms appears likely along/ahead of the slowly moving cold
front, or the effective boundary. Uncertainty is where the effective
boundary will be as there is some potential is is just southeast of
the CWA. Of course, what happens with the evolution of convection
tonight will largely affect development Tuesday afternoon. Best
guess currently is that the southern third of the CWA would have the
highest chance at seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms so have
chance PoPs across much of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be about 5-10 degrees cooler
(though still quite a bit above normal for mid May) due to expected
cloud cover and weak cold advection for those areas behind the cold
front. Have forecast high temperatures for Tuesday afternoon ranging
from the upper 70s across northeast Missouri to the mid 80s for
parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

A ridge of high pressure will try to build over the Midwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday which should help dry us out Wednesday and
Thursday.  The upper pattern will then get a little blocky with the
ridge over the Midwest and a tropical low drifting northward from
the Gulf of Mexico up into the Deep South.  Medium range guidance
has been a little wishy-washy on how to handle these features and
how they'll interact.  Current thinking is that the tropical low
will bring moisture back toward the Mississippi Valley toward the
latter half of the week.  GFS has much more QPF than the EC does as
the moisture swings back around to the north of the low.  With the
uncertainty as to how far back to the northwest the moisture from
this low will get, have kept PoPs down in the chance/slight chance
range.  Both models break down the upper ridge Sunday into Monday
and drive a cold front into the Mid Mississippi Valley with
corresponding higher chances of precip.  Temperatures will likely
stay well above normal through the period with highs generally in
the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Expectation is for an area of thunderstorms to develop across
portions of northwest Missouri and head ESE through parts of the
area. Some uncertainty as to the track of the more organized
storms, but KUIN at this juncture seems to have the highest
probability so added a TEMPO this afternoon. Kept VCTS mention at
all other terminals for now, but if confidence increases, will
need to ammend. Stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall/reduced visibilities in addition to gusty winds and
potentially hail. Appears there will be a lull in thunderstorm
activity late this evening before additional storms develop later
on tonight. Cold front will slowly move through the area tonight
into Tuesday with winds veering to the west/northwest behind it
with lessening chances of showers/storms as well.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Maintained VCTS mention for early this evening for now as
monitoring developing thunderstorms across portions of northwest
Missouri. If confidence increases that terminal will be affected
by aforementioned storms, will need to ammend. Stronger storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours/reduced visibility in
addition to gusty winds and hail. Should be a lull in activity
late evening/early overnight hours before additional storms try to
move toward the terminal later on tonight. Winds will shift to the
west/northwest by early Monday afternoon with a cold frontal
passage.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record highs and record warm lows for St. Louis:
May 14th: 93 (2013), 73 (1915)
May 15th: 94 (1944), 72 (2013)

Record highs and record warm lows for Columbia:
May 14th: 90 (1987), 67 (1941)
May 15th: 90 (1944), 71 (1941)

Record highs and record warm lows for Quincy:
May 14th: 94 (1915), 66 (1932)
May 15th: 93 (1944), 69 (1962)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     69  86  66  82 /  80  30  30  20
Quincy          65  79  59  80 /  60  20  10  10
Columbia        65  81  63  81 /  60  20  20  20
Jefferson City  66  83  64  83 /  60  30  20  20
Salem           67  86  65  82 /  60  30  40  20
Farmington      67  86  63  81 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
352 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151215-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
352 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severer thunderstorms are likely across much of central
and eastern Missouri as well as west central and parts of
southwest Illinois this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are
the primary threats. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms for parts of the area each
day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through this evening.

Carney

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
406 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N COLUMBIA            38.97N 92.33W
05/14/2018  M47 MPH          BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E VANDIVER            39.16N 91.82W
05/14/2018  M61 MPH          AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT THE MEXICO MO AWOS (KMYJ).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
417 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E VANDIVER            39.16N 91.82W
05/14/2018  M63 MPH          AUDRAIN            MO   AWOS

            MEXICO AIRPORT...KMYJ.

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
422 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEXICO                  39.17N 91.88W
05/14/2018                   AUDRAIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN, TOOK LINES DOWN AS
            WELL. CHURCH ROOF NEARBY SUSTAINED MINOR
            ROOF DAMAGE FROM WINDS.

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
438 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW COLUMBIA          38.96N 92.36W
05/14/2018                   BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE SECTION OF A LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN
            ACROSS FROM WEST MIDDLE SCHOOL. THREE
            UNOCCUPIED VEHICLES SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM
            THE LARGE SECTION OF TREE.

&&

MAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
451 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLFLOWER              39.00N 91.35W
05/14/2018                   MONTGOMERY         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AS WELL AS POWER LINES.
            POLE BARN BLOWN DOWN AND SOME ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

MAB