Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS St. Louis, MO

716 
WWUS53 KLSX 142210
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
510 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOC007-027-173-142218-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180514T2230Z/
Ralls MO-Audrain MO-Callaway MO-
510 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RALLS...EASTERN
AUDRAIN AND NORTHEASTERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3943 9101 3942 9099 3858 9098 3861 9106
      3861 9109 3863 9120 3871 9131 3871 9154
      3893 9152 3915 9140 3943 9144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 266DEG 44KT 3922 9104 3896 9109 

$$

MOC113-139-163-219-142230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180514T2230Z/
Lincoln MO-Montgomery MO-Warren MO-Pike MO-
510 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN LINCOLN...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...WARREN COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...

At 508 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Eolia to near Hawk Point, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Warrenton, Bowling Green, Louisiana, Wright City, Montgomery
City, Davis, Marthasville, New Florence, Jonesburg, Truesdale, Hawk
Point, Innsbrook, Eolia, Bellflower, Curryville, Buell, New Hartford,
Big Spring and Tarrants.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 175 and 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms have a history of 
producing widespread wind damage across portions of Montgomery 
County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away 
from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3943 9101 3942 9099 3858 9098 3861 9106
      3861 9109 3863 9120 3871 9131 3871 9154
      3893 9152 3915 9140 3943 9144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 266DEG 44KT 3922 9104 3896 9109 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Tilly

212 
WWUS53 KLSX 142230
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
530 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOC113-139-163-219-142239-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180514T2230Z/
Lincoln MO-Montgomery MO-Warren MO-Pike MO-
530 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN LINCOLN...EASTERN
MONTGOMERY...WARREN COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT
530 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Missouri.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
eastern Warren, eastern Pike and Lincoln counties until 600 PM.

LAT...LON 3943 9101 3942 9099 3858 9098 3861 9106
      3861 9109 3863 9120 3871 9131 3871 9154
      3893 9152 3915 9140 3943 9144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 273DEG 34KT 3921 9080 3895 9085 

$$

Tilly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
319 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

(Tonight)

At least a loosely organized MCS is expected to be nearing the
Mississippi River by early this evening, with damaging wind gusts
the primary threat. Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest some
weakening as it heads ESE into IL. Not sure how fast this will occur
since environment is only modestly less favorable in terms of
shear/CAPE. However, it does seem plausible that the complex may
become more outflow dominant by that point in time and space, which
would lead to some weakening.

More uncertainty for the rest of the tonight as model guidance is a
bit all over the place. Some form of additional thunderstorm
development appears likely to our west later on this evening along
the synoptic boundary, but exactly where and when is difficult to
discern. Any convection that does move back into western sections of
the forecast area should weaken as it heads eastward into less
unstable air, especially across central portions of the forecast
area where first complex of storms is expected to transverse.

Lows tonight will once again be on the mild side ahead of the cold
front. Forecast lows tonight range from the mid to upper 60s, which
is slightly cooler than this morning.

(Tuesday)

Much of Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours appears
largely quiet/dry. Another potential round of showers and
thunderstorms appears likely along/ahead of the slowly moving cold
front, or the effective boundary. Uncertainty is where the effective
boundary will be as there is some potential is is just southeast of
the CWA. Of course, what happens with the evolution of convection
tonight will largely affect development Tuesday afternoon. Best
guess currently is that the southern third of the CWA would have the
highest chance at seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms so have
chance PoPs across much of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be about 5-10 degrees cooler
(though still quite a bit above normal for mid May) due to expected
cloud cover and weak cold advection for those areas behind the cold
front. Have forecast high temperatures for Tuesday afternoon ranging
from the upper 70s across northeast Missouri to the mid 80s for
parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

A ridge of high pressure will try to build over the Midwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday which should help dry us out Wednesday and
Thursday.  The upper pattern will then get a little blocky with the
ridge over the Midwest and a tropical low drifting northward from
the Gulf of Mexico up into the Deep South.  Medium range guidance
has been a little wishy-washy on how to handle these features and
how they'll interact.  Current thinking is that the tropical low
will bring moisture back toward the Mississippi Valley toward the
latter half of the week.  GFS has much more QPF than the EC does as
the moisture swings back around to the north of the low.  With the
uncertainty as to how far back to the northwest the moisture from
this low will get, have kept PoPs down in the chance/slight chance
range.  Both models break down the upper ridge Sunday into Monday
and drive a cold front into the Mid Mississippi Valley with
corresponding higher chances of precip.  Temperatures will likely
stay well above normal through the period with highs generally in
the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Expectation is for an area of thunderstorms to develop across
portions of northwest Missouri and head ESE through parts of the
area. Some uncertainty as to the track of the more organized
storms, but KUIN at this juncture seems to have the highest
probability so added a TEMPO this afternoon. Kept VCTS mention at
all other terminals for now, but if confidence increases, will
need to ammend. Stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall/reduced visibilities in addition to gusty winds and
potentially hail. Appears there will be a lull in thunderstorm
activity late this evening before additional storms develop later
on tonight. Cold front will slowly move through the area tonight
into Tuesday with winds veering to the west/northwest behind it
with lessening chances of showers/storms as well.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Maintained VCTS mention for early this evening for now as
monitoring developing thunderstorms across portions of northwest
Missouri. If confidence increases that terminal will be affected
by aforementioned storms, will need to ammend. Stronger storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours/reduced visibility in
addition to gusty winds and hail. Should be a lull in activity
late evening/early overnight hours before additional storms try to
move toward the terminal later on tonight. Winds will shift to the
west/northwest by early Monday afternoon with a cold frontal
passage.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record highs and record warm lows for St. Louis:
May 14th: 93 (2013), 73 (1915)
May 15th: 94 (1944), 72 (2013)

Record highs and record warm lows for Columbia:
May 14th: 90 (1987), 67 (1941)
May 15th: 90 (1944), 71 (1941)

Record highs and record warm lows for Quincy:
May 14th: 94 (1915), 66 (1932)
May 15th: 93 (1944), 69 (1962)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     69  86  66  82 /  80  30  30  20
Quincy          65  79  59  80 /  60  20  10  10
Columbia        65  81  63  81 /  60  20  20  20
Jefferson City  66  83  64  83 /  60  30  20  20
Salem           67  86  65  82 /  60  30  40  20
Farmington      67  86  63  81 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
352 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151215-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
352 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severer thunderstorms are likely across much of central
and eastern Missouri as well as west central and parts of
southwest Illinois this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are
the primary threats. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms for parts of the area each
day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through this evening.

Carney

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
406 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N COLUMBIA            38.97N 92.33W
05/14/2018  M47 MPH          BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E VANDIVER            39.16N 91.82W
05/14/2018  M61 MPH          AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT THE MEXICO MO AWOS (KMYJ).

&&