Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS St. Louis, MO

749 
WWUS53 KLSX 200104
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
804 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

ILC001-009-149-200200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-180720T0200Z/
Pike IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-
804 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN PIKE...EASTERN ADAMS AND BROWN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

At 804 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Buckhorn,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsfield, Quincy Regional Airport, Mount Sterling, Barry,
Griggsville, Camp Point, Clayton, Golden, Beverly, Buckhorn,
Kingston, Independence, Liberty, Versailles, Martinsburg, Richfield,
Perry, Baylis, Chambersburg and Coatsburg.

This also includes  Siloam Springs State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 72 between exits 31 and 35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9093 4017 9091 4011 9092 4011 9083
      3988 9058 3986 9058 3983 9057 3979 9060
      3976 9061 3971 9065 3960 9060 3947 9083
      4000 9130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 317DEG 36KT 3994 9095 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BSH

837 
WWUS53 KLSX 200125
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
825 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

ILC001-009-149-200200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-180720T0200Z/
Pike IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-
825 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

At 825 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Griggsville,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsfield, Barry, Griggsville, Beverly, Buckhorn, Kingston,
Independence, Versailles, Martinsburg, Richfield, Perry, Baylis,
Chambersburg, New Salem, Detroit, Florence, Time, Valley City, New
Hartford and Fishhook.

This also includes  Siloam Springs State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 72 between exits 31 and 35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 9087 3988 9058 3986 9058 3983 9057
      3979 9060 3976 9061 3971 9065 3960 9060
      3947 9083 3982 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 317DEG 36KT 3978 9076 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BSH

456 
WWUS53 KLSX 200148
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
848 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

ILC001-009-200157-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-180720T0200Z/
Adams IL-Brown IL-
848 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3982 9075 3978 9060 3976 9061 3971 9065
      3960 9060 3947 9083 3970 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 317DEG 36KT 3962 9056 

$$

ILC149-200200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-180720T0200Z/
Pike IL-
848 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsfield, Griggsville, Independence, Martinsburg, Perry, Baylis,
New Salem, Detroit, Florence, Time, Valley City and New Hartford.

This includes Interstate 72 between exits 31 and 35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 9075 3978 9060 3976 9061 3971 9065
      3960 9060 3947 9083 3970 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 317DEG 36KT 3962 9056 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BSH

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
738 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Severe thunderstorm watch 286 issued for portions of NE MO and
WC/SW IL til 2 am. Large complex of storms moving southeast
through this area this evening.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Forecast challenges mainly deal with convective trends late this
afternoon into this evening, overnight tonight and again Friday.

The early morning thunderstorm complex that developed and spread
through central/southeast Missouri this morning, effectively
resulted in a relatively stable environment. Outflow from this
complex then propagated west-southwest in the Kansas City area,
where additional storms have been focused.

The big question this afternoon has been whether a second round
would develop and become organized over north-central Missouri.
Trends have continued to favor western Missouri, generally along the
outflow boundary from this morning's convection. Despite some
afternoon cap erosion over northern Missouri, the relatively stable
layer continues to hold and redevelopment has remained isolated and
short-lived. The best support coincides with ongoing convection over
western Missouri, where a thin corridor of ~3000 J/kg of MUCape
extend north-to-south. Instability tails off to about 1000 J/kg
toward the St. Louis area.

Current thinking is that additional storm could still fire, but will
likely be tamed by this stable pocket over central and east-central
Missouri. Additional storms area more likely to redevelop in area
that were not already contaminate by this morning's thunderstorms,
which includes ongoing convection over eastern Kansas, western
Missouri and near the Missouri/Iowa border, closer to the junction
of the cold/warm frontal boundaries and just east of the 40-50kt jet
streak.

Guidance hints at a mid-upper drying taking place behind the upper
level wave, pushing northwest to southeast over central Missouri
into Friday morning. Eastward progress of the frontal boundary,
along with the upper low and jet max should be enough to push most
severe potential well into Illinois and over the OH/TN Valley
Regions. Given the lesser likelihood of precip, temps were bumped up
a couple of degrees with a gradual drop in humidity from east to
west during the day Friday.

Maples

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

A longwave trough over parts of the central and eastern US will
begin to deepen by Friday night. An attendant low over the Great
Lakes on Friday night will move to the Ohio valley by Saturday
morning, then over into the southeast US by Sunday afternoon.
Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected Saturday afternoon
across west central and southwest IL, east of the Mississippi River
on the backside of the vertically stacked low pressure system.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Sunday over
southwestern Illinois on the back side of the trough.  The low over
the Gulf coast will then become cut off from the deep long wave
trough. North-northwest flow will continue over the forecast area
from Friday night through Wednesday over the area. Cooler
temperatures are expected over the area this weekend due to the
north-northwest flow over the forecast area.  The operational models
continue to brings more showers and a few thunderstorms across
southeast MO and southwest IL Tuesday afternoon as a cold front
drops southeastward through our area with broad upper level
troughing over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. The cold
is expect to move just south of the CWA on Wednesday with additional
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms again on Wednesday
afternoon over southeast Missouri and southwestern Illinois.
Temperature will be at seasonal values for late July over the
area.

Kelly
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 735 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Complex of storms moving southeast to affect KUIN between 01z and
02z so added mention to taf. Otherwise, VFR conditions through
forecast period for region. South winds to veer to the southwest
then west to northwest as cold front moves through betweeen 14z
and 19z Friday.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Complex of storms moving southeast to affect NE but remain north
of STL. Otherwise, VFR conditions through forecast period for
metro area. South winds to veer to the southwest around 12z Friday
then west to northwest as cold front moves through by 19z Friday
and become gusty. Northwest winds to diminish by 02z Saturday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
415 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201130-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
415 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible tonight,
mainly through northeast Missouri into central Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across far southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois on Friday.

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and Sunday afternoon across central and southwest
Illinois, in addition to Tuesday and Tuesday evening for
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.
Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather, if observed,
to the National Weather Service.

Maples