River Flood Warning 92, NWS St. Louis, MO

249 
WGUS83 KLSX 081037
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
537 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North River at Palmyra

This Flood Warning is a result of 2 to 3 inches of precipitation the 
past 24 hours and half an inch to an inch forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC127-091037-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-180909T1054Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.180908T0040Z.180908T0545Z.180908T1054Z.NO/
537 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North River at Palmyra
* until late tonight.
* At  4:30 AM Saturday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* The river crested at 15.1 feet and is now falling. It is forecast to continue  
  falling and will fall below flood stage by early this morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   13.26       6.8    5.1    4.5    4.3    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

068 
WGUS83 KLSX 081728
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
                  ...North River at Palmyra

.This Flood Warning is a result of up to 3 inches of rainfall the 
past 24 hours and 0.13 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC127-081758-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-180909T1054Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.180908T0040Z.180908T0545Z.180908T0946Z.NO/
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North River at Palmyra.
* At 11:30 AM Saturday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 4:46 AM Saturday.
* The river will continue falling to 6.7 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

North River
  Palmyra         13.0    8.38       6.7    4.9    4.4    4.3    4.2


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
610 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

The focus for the forecast remains on the potential for very
heavy rain and flash flooding through Sunday morning.

Showers have finally developed farther south, just north of the
surface front extending from roughly Columbia, MO to Springfield,
IL. The expectation is for widespread showers to continue into the
early evening, with at least scattered showers and isolated storms
to persist along the front into the overnight hours. See the latest
WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion for more details on the
threat posed by this feature. Away from the front, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will last into the early evening,
diminishing somewhat before 06z.

After 06z, we'll really begin to see the full effects of Gordon just
as an upper level trough begins to impact the region. This will
result in heavy rain along and just north of the track of Gordon,
which current guidance shows moving from roughly West Plains, MO to
Farmington, MO to Salem, IL. Additionally, the combination of the
front, increased upper level dynamics, and Gordon will result in an
additional round of heavy precipitation tomorrow morning along
the front, again impacting areas just north of the I-70 corridor.

As far as timing is concerned, the heaviest rain will begin around
06z, shifting from west to east, finally exiting southern IL on
Saturday evening. At this point, it appears that areas just north of
I-70 as well as southwest IL will receive the heaviest additional
rain, around 5". Elsewhere, anywhere from 2"-4" is expected.
Given the tropical environment, this afternoon's storms have
managed to be extremely efficient rain produces, and this trend
should continue through the event. Moreover, it is possible that
bands of showers become nearly stationary over certain areas, and
in these instances, higher rainfall amounts than forecast are
likely. This is most likely to occur north of I-70 along the
frontal boundary. The flash flooding threat in this area is also
somewhat higher than elsewhere due to the amount of rain that has
already fallen over the past 36 hours.

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

Rainfall will exit the region from west to east on Saturday night
before we completely dry out on Sunday. Guidance continues to
show a period dominated by high pressure next week, with dry
conditions and high temperatures gradually climbing from the mid
70s on Monday to the mid 80s by the end of the week.

BSH

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

Persistent showers continued in UIN along with a low level
stratus cloud deck around 600 feet behind a nearly stationary
front extending from near COU east-northeast to just north of STL.
The remnant surface low of "Gordon" over northwest AR will move
northeastward through southern portions of MO and IL with
widespread showers expected north or left of the track of the low.
Scattered showers were already moving through the St Louis metro
area early this evening, but more widespread showers can be
expected late tonight and Saturday. The cloud ceiling will drop
into the IFR category in the St Louis metro area late tonight as
it already has in UIN and COU. Surface winds will be
northeasterly, and relatively strong and gusty on Saturday due to
a tight surface pressure gradient between "Gordon" and strong
surface ridging over the Great Lakes region.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Persistent showers continued in northeast MO
and west central IL along with a low level stratus cloud deck
around 600 feet behind a nearly stationary front extending from
near COU east-northeast to just north of STL. The remnant surface
low of "Gordon" over northwest AR will move northeastward through
southern portions of MO and IL with widespread showers expected
north or left of the track of the low. Scattered showers were
already moving through the St Louis metro area early this evening,
but more widespread showers can be expected late tonight and
Saturday. The cloud ceiling will drop into the IFR category in
the STL area late tonight as it already has in UIN and COU.
Surface winds will be northeasterly, and relatively strong and
gusty on Saturday due to a tight surface pressure gradient between
"Gordon" and strong surface ridging over the Great Lakes region.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
353 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081115-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
353 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms, and heavy rain is likely
this evening and overnight. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
the entire area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms, and heavy rain is likely
through Sunday over parts of the area. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for the entire area through early Sunday morning due to
this expected heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall amounts will be
just north of I-70 and also in southwest IL. Flash flooding is
most likely in these areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to call in any flooding reports or rainfall
reports greater than one inch.

BSH