Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
252 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Typical summer heat unfolding this afternoon, with thunderstorm development
showing a little more structure than typical for an early August day. That
organization comes as an upper trough continues slowly moving across the
Midwest, with disturbances riding along it. As we hit convective temperatures,
expect a little more coverage to develop this afternoon. With sunset, expect
coverage to start diminishing, but not go away completely. The fairly diffuse
surface front north of the region now will slide slowly southeast and continue
to provide enough lift for further development overnight. Showers/storm
coverage may get enhanced by a weak 30-knot low-level jet across the area as
well, thus will continue with 20-40 pops overnight.

Wednesday, the front looks to be edging into southern Indiana. One vortmax
looks to cross the area in the morning, and by afternoon we start to see a
little more zonal flow. Given flatter flow aloft in its wake, outflow
boundaries should be enough with the surface heating to continue at least
scattered storm threat into through the afternoon. One more concern could be
flood potential, as that flow aloft becomes parallel to storm motion as well,
we could see some training of storms.

Cloud cover should keep temperatures down a little more than what we've seen
today. Also, for the same reason expect morning lows to be a little above
normal.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

A slow moving cold front will sag into southern Kentucky or
Tennessee Thursday in the wake of an upper level shortwave passing
through the lower Ohio Valley. Depending on where this boundary sets
up Thursday, showers and storms will be possible. The front then is
expected to stall or wash out around the area through the weekend,
keeping isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.

By this weekend, upper level energy from the Great Lakes is expected
to close off, forming a closed low over the Great Lakes. There
remains uncertainty between the various forecast models and there
is also limited confidence run to run. Depending on where it sets up
and if there are any shortwaves pivoting around, showers and storms
will be possible. Forecast confidence is below average given the low
forecast model continuity and expected changes between now and this
weekend.

Temperatures during this period will vary depending on amount of
clouds and precip, but for now expect highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Plenty of moisture around with just enough instability for scattered storms to
develop this afternoon. Have the most confidence in the I-64 corridor
terminals, so put tempo groups for gusty winds and brief lower cigs/vsby.
Coverage should diminish some with sunset, but presence of a front and multiple
disturbances aloft will mean showers/isolated thunder overnight and Wednesday
morning as well. Winds generally will be from the southwest, outside of storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-081915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
303 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018 /203 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with heavy rainfall,
damaging winds, small hail and frequent lightning. The most active
period will be from 3 pm to 8 pm. Coverage of storms is expected to
become more isolated late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible each day, mainly in the afternoon to
early evening hours. Widespread organized severe weather is not
likely at this time but frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and
gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any strong winds, hail, and flooding
this week.

RJS/ZT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     FLOOD            PARIS                   38.21N 84.25W
08/07/2018                   BOURBON            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            ROADS HAD HIGH WATER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN, BUT
            NO ROADS HAD TO BE CLOSED.

&&

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
656 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ054-072330-
Marion-
656 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MARION COUNTY...

At 656 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Lebanon, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Bradfordsville, Raywick, Calvary, Saint Joseph, Belltown,
Greenbriar, Jessietown, New Market and Saint Mary.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3748 8540 3748 8544 3755 8549 3763 8521
      3763 8519 3747 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 259DEG 24KT 3752 8540

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
727 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ045-053-054-064-080000-
Marion-Nelson-Larue-Green-
727 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON...NORTHERN
GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN LARUE AND WEST CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES...

At 727 PM EDT/627 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Hodgenville, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hodgenville, Wards, Gethsemane, Athertonville, Boundary Oak, Attilla,
Howardstown, Stiles, Gleanings and Magnolia.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3743 8575 3760 8578 3766 8550 3747 8547
      3747 8549 3748 8549 3748 8550 3746 8552
      3746 8556 3747 8558 3745 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 256DEG 23KT 3752 8572

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
737 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ028-045-053-080015-
Nelson-Hardin-Larue-
737 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL NELSON...NORTH
CENTRAL LARUE AND EASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES...

At 737 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hodgenville,
moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bardstown, New Haven, Lyons, Nelsonville, Blue Gap, Culvertown,
Roanoke and Balltown.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3770 8577 3780 8549 3768 8545 3767 8546
      3761 8573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 256DEG 23KT 3766 8568

SCHOETTMER