Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
252 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Typical summer heat unfolding this afternoon, with thunderstorm development
showing a little more structure than typical for an early August day. That
organization comes as an upper trough continues slowly moving across the
Midwest, with disturbances riding along it. As we hit convective temperatures,
expect a little more coverage to develop this afternoon. With sunset, expect
coverage to start diminishing, but not go away completely. The fairly diffuse
surface front north of the region now will slide slowly southeast and continue
to provide enough lift for further development overnight. Showers/storm
coverage may get enhanced by a weak 30-knot low-level jet across the area as
well, thus will continue with 20-40 pops overnight.

Wednesday, the front looks to be edging into southern Indiana. One vortmax
looks to cross the area in the morning, and by afternoon we start to see a
little more zonal flow. Given flatter flow aloft in its wake, outflow
boundaries should be enough with the surface heating to continue at least
scattered storm threat into through the afternoon. One more concern could be
flood potential, as that flow aloft becomes parallel to storm motion as well,
we could see some training of storms.

Cloud cover should keep temperatures down a little more than what we've seen
today. Also, for the same reason expect morning lows to be a little above
normal.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

A slow moving cold front will sag into southern Kentucky or
Tennessee Thursday in the wake of an upper level shortwave passing
through the lower Ohio Valley. Depending on where this boundary sets
up Thursday, showers and storms will be possible. The front then is
expected to stall or wash out around the area through the weekend,
keeping isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.

By this weekend, upper level energy from the Great Lakes is expected
to close off, forming a closed low over the Great Lakes. There
remains uncertainty between the various forecast models and there
is also limited confidence run to run. Depending on where it sets up
and if there are any shortwaves pivoting around, showers and storms
will be possible. Forecast confidence is below average given the low
forecast model continuity and expected changes between now and this
weekend.

Temperatures during this period will vary depending on amount of
clouds and precip, but for now expect highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Plenty of moisture around with just enough instability for scattered storms to
develop this afternoon. Have the most confidence in the I-64 corridor
terminals, so put tempo groups for gusty winds and brief lower cigs/vsby.
Coverage should diminish some with sunset, but presence of a front and multiple
disturbances aloft will mean showers/isolated thunder overnight and Wednesday
morning as well. Winds generally will be from the southwest, outside of storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-081915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
303 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018 /203 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with heavy rainfall,
damaging winds, small hail and frequent lightning. The most active
period will be from 3 pm to 8 pm. Coverage of storms is expected to
become more isolated late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible each day, mainly in the afternoon to
early evening hours. Widespread organized severe weather is not
likely at this time but frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and
gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any strong winds, hail, and flooding
this week.

RJS/ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
427 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ036-037-072100-
Scott-Harrison-
427 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SCOTT AND HARRISON
COUNTIES...

At 427 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Williamstown, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cynthiana, Breckinridge, Sadieville, Berry, Robinson, Colemansville,
Oddville, Alberta, Renaker and Rutland.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3839 8418 3838 8468 3849 8456 3851 8449
      3854 8448 3853 8445 3854 8442 3856 8442
      3858 8420 3857 8420 3856 8422 3855 8421
      3855 8416 3854 8416 3853 8418 3850 8418
      3850 8416 3849 8417 3848 8413 3847 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 268DEG 18KT 3853 8448

ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ029-038-045-072100-
Bullitt-Spencer-Nelson-
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SPENCER...NORTH
CENTRAL NELSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BULLITT COUNTIES...

At 431 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Shepherdsville, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Samuels, Ridgetop, Highgrove, Solitude, Deatsville, Lotus, Coxs Creek
and Lenore.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3787 8561 3791 8564 3804 8544 3796 8540
      3789 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 253DEG 12KT 3791 8558

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
434 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ045-053-072100-
Nelson-Larue-
434 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON AND CENTRAL
LARUE COUNTIES...

At 434 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hodgenville,
moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hodgenville, Athertonville, Howardstown, Stiles and Leafdale.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3759 8578 3763 8578 3763 8577 3764 8578
      3764 8577 3765 8556 3752 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 274DEG 16KT 3761 8575

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
442 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ039-072115-
Anderson-
442 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY...

At 442 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Lawrenceburg, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Drydock, Gee, Anderson City, Mcbrayer, Birdie,
Glensboro, Ninevah and Fox Creek.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3796 8483 3799 8509 3804 8509 3804 8508
      3805 8507 3810 8486 3809 8486 3810 8484
      3805 8484 3805 8485 3804 8485 3803 8484
      3801 8484 3801 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 269DEG 20KT 3802 8503

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
453 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ034-035-039-072130-
Shelby-Franklin-Anderson-
453 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTH
CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 453 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Lawrenceburg, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Graefenburg, Bridgeport, Harrisonville, Waddy, Farmdale,
Capital City Airport, Broadville Manor, Avenstoke and Evergreen.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3821 8488 3812 8486 3810 8487 3806 8508
      3813 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 260DEG 17KT 3810 8504

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
455 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

KYZ036-037-043-072130-
Scott-Nicholas-Harrison-
455 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SCOTT...
NORTHWESTERN NICHOLAS AND HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 455 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Falmouth to 9 miles south of
Owenton. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cynthiana, Breckinridge, Sadieville, Berry, Alberta, Renaker,
Ellisville, Stonewall, Connersville and Barefoot.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3837 8470 3849 8456 3851 8449 3854 8448
      3853 8445 3857 8441 3858 8421 3855 8421
      3855 8416 3852 8418 3850 8418 3850 8416
      3849 8417 3848 8413 3846 8410 3843 8400
      3842 8400 3844 8398 3839 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 276DEG 27KT 3861 8430 3840 8480

ZT