Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Louisville, KY

838 
WWUS53 KLMK 172356
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
656 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

KYC031-141-180006-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-180518T0000Z/
Logan KY-Butler KY-
656 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3704 8705 3707 8703 3707 8694 3708 8694
      3709 8690 3710 8690 3711 8689 3712 8690
      3713 8690 3713 8691 3714 8693 3717 8692
      3698 8674 3688 8692 3697 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 142DEG 14KT 3703 8692 

$$

EER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
712 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

The high-res models like the HRRR/ARW/NMM/3km NAM are handling the
convection and environment fairly well today, so the short term
forecast leans heavily on that output. Greatest chance for showers
and storms this afternoon and evening will be across the
southwestern CWA near BWG, closest to a stationary boundary near the
KY/TN border. Another area of isolated to scattered showers will
generally continue along the Ohio River through the rest of the
afternoon. High-res models indicate all activity slowly tapering
down overnight, and stratus/fog returning after midnight. Much like
today, we could see some dense fog, but coverage of the dense fog
should remain patchy.

A broad area of low pressure lifts north into Tennessee tomorrow.
Wind shifts/boundaries north of the low should help initiate some
showers and storms across the region. With PWATs remaining high, and
storm motions relatively slow (10-15kts), showers/storms will be
efficient rain producers and could lead to localized flooding
issues, especially in training storms.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Summer-like weather will continue through the long term with largely
diurnal scattered thunderstorm activity. The upper trough we've been
under recently will stay in place through Saturday night and then
flatten out, with a more zonal pattern into next week. A broad
surface boundary will remain in the vicinity of the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys into early next week as well. With precipitable
water values remaining around 1.5 inches through the period, there
will be plenty of moisture with the available instability to result
in scattered storms, especially in the afternoons and evenings. High
temperatures will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Generally VFR conditions are expected at the terminals this evening.
Scattered showers and storms will be common this evening across the
region with the best coverage down in the KBWG area.  Convection
looks to diminish after sunset and then attention will turn to fog
development.  Model guidance still hints at low stratus building in
across the region along with some fog.  The fog would be most
maximized in areas that saw rainfall during the day.  Confidence is
rather low how dense the fog could be, so for now have kept some
MVFR vsbys in the TAFs though there is potential for some IFR
conditions to develop perhaps at KBWG and KLEX towards dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term....13
Aviation.....MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
253 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-181900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
253 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018 /153 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms could linger through midnight tonight. Any
storm will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and
cloud to ground lightning.

Additionally, patchy dense fog will be possible tomorrow morning,
especially in areas that receive rainfall today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly
in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy rainfall and locally gusty
winds are possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooded roads or creeks as well as
stronger wind gusts.

DM