Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Louisville, KY

369 
WGUS73 KLMK 172010
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
410 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

KYC073-172019-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180517T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Franklin KY-
410 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended with just some additional light to moderate 
rain possible. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3835 8489 3836 8488 3835 8485 3832 8484
      3831 8495 3834 8495 3836 8493 3836 8490

$$

EER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
244 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

The high-res models like the HRRR/ARW/NMM/3km NAM are handling the
convection and environment fairly well today, so the short term
forecast leans heavily on that output. Greatest chance for showers
and storms this afternoon and evening will be across the
southwestern CWA near BWG, closest to a stationary boundary near the
KY/TN border. Another area of isolated to scattered showers will
generally continue along the Ohio River through the rest of the
afternoon. High-res models indicate all activity slowly tapering
down overnight, and stratus/fog returning after midnight. Much like
today, we could see some dense fog, but coverage of the dense fog
should remain patchy.

A broad area of low pressure lifts north into Tennessee tomorrow.
Wind shifts/boundaries north of the low should help initiate some
showers and storms across the region. With PWATs remaining high, and
storm motions relatively slow (10-15kts), showers/storms will be
efficient rain producers and could lead to localized flooding
issues, especially in training storms.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Summer-like weather will continue through the long term with largely
diurnal scattered thunderstorm activity. The upper trough we've been
under recently will stay in place through Saturday night and then
flatten out, with a more zonal pattern into next week. A broad
surface boundary will remain in the vicinity of the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys into early next week as well. With precipitable
water values remaining around 1.5 inches through the period, there
will be plenty of moisture with the available instability to result
in scattered storms, especially in the afternoons and evenings. High
temperatures will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

MVFR to VFR strato-cu has developed over the last couple of hours
across the region and continues to persist into the early afternoon.
Should see ceilings lift to VFR everywhere later this afternoon as
boundary layer mixing deepens. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon and early evening, with the best chances
near the BWG TAF site where more lift/instability is present.

Some models indicate stratus and low visibilities returning after
midnight, though confidence is low in the details regarding timing
and duration. Will begin to introduce low cigs/vis for some sites
where confidence is highest it will occur.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...13
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
253 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-181900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
253 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018 /153 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms could linger through midnight tonight. Any
storm will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and
cloud to ground lightning.

Additionally, patchy dense fog will be possible tomorrow morning,
especially in areas that receive rainfall today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly
in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy rainfall and locally gusty
winds are possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooded roads or creeks as well as
stronger wind gusts.

DM