Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Louisville, KY

841 
WWUS53 KLMK 261912
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KYC209-261922-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-180626T1930Z/
Scott KY-
312 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3821 8431 3846 8439 3854 8443 3857 8441
      3858 8420 3855 8421 3855 8416 3849 8417
      3843 8400 3842 8400 3844 8397 3836 8389
      3835 8390 3836 8387 3833 8386 3834 8384
      3830 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 253DEG 40KT 3856 8429 3823 8425 

$$

KYC017-097-181-261930-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-180626T1930Z/
Bourbon KY-Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
312 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN BOURBON...NICHOLAS AND HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 312 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles south of Falmouth to Paris, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Cynthiana, Carlisle, Breckinridge, Millersburg, Berry, Blacks
Crossroads, Ellisville, Colville and Currentsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8431 3846 8439 3854 8443 3857 8441
      3858 8420 3855 8421 3855 8416 3849 8417
      3843 8400 3842 8400 3844 8397 3836 8389
      3835 8390 3836 8387 3833 8386 3834 8384
      3830 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 253DEG 40KT 3856 8429 3823 8425 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EER

452 
WWUS53 KLMK 261928
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KYC017-097-181-261938-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-180626T1930Z/
Bourbon KY-Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BOURBON...NICHOLAS
AND HARRISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3821 8431 3846 8439 3854 8443 3857 8441
      3858 8420 3855 8421 3855 8416 3849 8417
      3843 8400 3842 8400 3844 8397 3836 8389
      3835 8390 3836 8387 3833 8386 3834 8384
      3830 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 255DEG 44KT 3861 8405 3828 8401 

$$

EER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Multiple threats in play today from severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding. A training cluster of storms early this morning has
already produced significant flash flooding in Boyle and Lincoln
Counties, with MRMS showing rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches.
Residual boundary remains draped from near Tell City to Danville,
and that is just where we do not need additional rain as 1-hr FFG is
as low as 1 inch.

WW 221 just issued by SPC, mainly for the MCS incoming from the
Wabash Valley. However with the favorable pulse environment in
place, any storms developing ahead of that system could easily go
severe as well. Main threat is damaging winds.

Expect a downward trend in the SVR threat after 21Z.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...Another Round of Strong Thunderstorms Expected Today...
...Flash Flood Watch Issued for Portions of the Area...

In the wake of afternoon convection, we've been in a little bit of a
short wave ridge axis since last evening.  This ridge has broken
down slightly as some additional convection has been firing east of
the I-65 corridor.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the
region with readings mainly in the lower 70s.  In the near term, we
expect low cloudiness and scattered showers to continue across the
area with the best chances of rain mainly east of the I-65 corridor.
Temperatures are likely not to move too much through sunrise.

For today, quasi-stationary boundary will remain draped across the
central portions of Kentucky.  Latest CAM guidance suggests that
another perturbation out across central MO will move eastward and
into our region this afternoon.  We'll see some delay in
destabilization early this morning, due to low clouds.  However, we
may scour out a bit quicker and then get some heating to destabilize
things for the afternoon.  Shear parameters continue to look rather
marginal for organized severe weather.  However, strong storms are
likely given the favorable/expected instability parameters and we
would not be surprised to have a few severe storms out there this
afternoon with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Of greater concern is the heavy rainfall potential.  MRMS and
Doppler Radar estimates show a swath of 2-4 inch rainfall amounts
across the central portions of our CWA that fell yesterday.  Another
round of heavy rainfall is likely today with the storms and this
will increase our flash flood threat.  For this reason, have
coordinated with surrounding offices and will hoist a Flash Flood
Watch for the southern 2/3rds of our forecast area.  Mainly in areas
generally south of the I-64 corridor.  While widespread flooding is
not anticipated, there are a few areas that will likely see some
local flooding issues, especially if they get repeated storms.
Greatest flash flood potential would be in a belt of counties from
Hancock through Hardin and then eastward over into Madison County.

Temperatures today will likely average out in the mid 80s in the
north with mid-upper 80s across the south.  Temps could end up being
a little under if convection gets going early and disrupts our
normal diurnal heating cycle.

For tonight, initial band of storms from the afternoon will likely
press eastward into diminish as they plow through eastern Kentucky.
We might see a brief lull in the action until the next wave
approaches the region late tonight.  Initial thoughts were to allow
flash flood watch to continue into the overnight period.  However,
low confidence on the mesoscale environment and overall storm
evolution for late tonight is of low confidence.  Therefore, will
allow the watch to go until 03Z.  An expansion in time/area may be
needed if successive forecasts key in more on the convective
evolution for later tonight and early Wed.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Wednesday into
later Wednesday evening as a shortwave and it's associated surface
low pass through the Great Lakes region. Given moderate instability,
and some deep layer flow thanks to the shortwave energy, some strong
to severe storms will be possible. In addition, continued rainfall
over areas that have seen many rounds of recent storms could lead to
localized flooding issues. Look for highs in the mid to upper 80s
Wednesday, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday night.

Thursday - Saturday Night...

Strong upper ridging builds over our region and then centers over
the mid Atlantic coast by late in the weekend. This will bring
overall drier and hotter conditions to the area. Can't completely
shut off the shower and storm chances each afternoon, however given
the subsidence offered by the strong upper ridge should see only
isolated coverage chances Friday and Saturday.

The bigger story will be the heat and humidity. H85 temps look to
climb into the 20-22C range which should support temps in the low
90s, with mid 90s possible on Friday. These readings combined with
dew points up in the low and mid 70s will result in max heat indices
in the 100-109 range on Saturday, and around 100 on Thursday and
Saturday. Will have to watch for the need for an Excessive Heat
Advisory during this time, especially for Friday. Overnight lows
will remain mild in the 70-75 range.

Sunday - Monday...

The upper ridge axis will lose most of it's influence over our area
by this time, as more zonal flow sinks over the northern third of
the CONUS. The Ohio River Valley will be situated between the
stronger westerlies and and a nearly stationary weak frontal
boundary to our N/NW, and the upper ridge to our E/SE. The heat and
humidity will still be around, but with the loss of
subsidence/capping from the upper ridge we should expect better
coverage and chances of storm development. For now, will continue
mention of scattered shower and storm development along with
continued muggy highs in the low 90s. Mild overnight lows in the 70-
75 degree range should continue.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Thunderstorms are popping throughout the area so will initialize all
the terminals with at least VCTS. Organized line passed through HNB
with a 40 kt peak gust, and the northern portion of the line should
hold together to warrant a TEMPO for 30-35kt gusts in SDF and LEX
this afternoon. IFR visibility in rain will be too brief, so will
mention MVFR vis for now. Should be a break in the precip this
evening with only a mid-level ceiling, but the next complex comes
into play after 07-09Z Wed. This far ahead of time will just carry
SHRA/VCTS, and keep ceilings and vis VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ083-084-089>091.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>030-034-035-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

&&

Update...RAS
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....BJS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

INZ083-084-089>091-KYZ023>030-034-035-038>041-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082-271045-
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon,
New Albany, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville,
Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville,
Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia,
Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018 /543 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move through the outlook area
this afternoon. The main hazard will be heavy rainfall with a risk of
flash flooding. A few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday.

Heat and humidity will return to the region later in the week, with
heat index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees Thursday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any wind damage or flooding.

INZ076>079-092-KYZ031>033-036-037-042-043-271045-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Clark-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Harrison-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
Jeffersonville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Georgetown,
Cynthiana, Paris, and Carlisle
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move through the outlook area
this afternoon. The main hazard will be heavy rainfall with a risk of
flash flooding. A few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday.

Heat and humidity will return to the region later in the week, with
heat index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees Thursday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any wind damage or flooding.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
232 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W PERRYVILLE          37.65N 85.01W
06/26/2018  E50 MPH          BOYLE              KY   PUBLIC

            EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN, TREE BRANCHES DOWN,
            ESTIMATED 50MPH.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N SALVISA             37.97N 84.87W
06/26/2018  M58 MPH          ANDERSON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            58 MPH RECORDED ON BLUEGRASS PKWY WITH
            CALIBRATED EQUIPMENT.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
253 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SAINT MATTHEWS      38.25N 85.69W
06/26/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE FELL ON POWER LINE NEAR
            RESIDENCE.

&&

SSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW PEWEE VALLEY      38.31N 85.51W
06/26/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN ALONG ROLLINGTON RD IN
            JEFFERSON COUNTY AND INTO OLDHAM COUNTY,
            PICNIC TABLE IN MIDDLE OF MAIN ROAD.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW PEWEE VALLEY       38.29N 85.51W
06/26/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

            TRESS DOWN ACROSS RAILROAD.

&&

SSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
201 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KYZ078-261915-
Russell-
201 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN RUSSELL
COUNTY...

At 201 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles west of Faubush to near Parnell.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Jabez, Ono, Vinnie, Eli, Whittle, Karlus and Fonthill.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3690 8510 3711 8500 3711 8497 3710 8495
      3710 8494 3712 8490 3705 8491 3701 8486
      3700 8484 3695 8491 3696 8493 3696 8495
      3692 8496 3688 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 268DEG 26KT 3705 8494 3691 8500

AMS