Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Louisville, KY

054 
WWUS53 KLMK 261754
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

INC019-KYC029-111-179-185-211-215-261815-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-180626T1815Z/
Clark IN-Spencer KY-Oldham KY-Shelby KY-Nelson KY-Jefferson KY-
Bullitt KY-
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CLARK...SPENCER...OLDHAM...WESTERN SHELBY...NORTH
CENTRAL NELSON...EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN BULLITT
COUNTIES...

At 154 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northwest of La Grange to 7 miles east of
Middletown to 6 miles south of Taylorsville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, La Grange, Taylorsville, Mount Washington, Crestwood,
Simpsonville, Pewee Valley, Owen, Yoder and Montclair.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 8538 3843 8533 3840 8533 3837 8529
      3824 8521 3795 8527 3787 8553 3796 8556
      3823 8546 3848 8559 3852 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 264DEG 21KT 3849 8543 3825 8538 3793 8532 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

EER

350 
WWUS53 KLMK 261809
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

INC019-KYC029-111-179-185-211-215-261819-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-180626T1815Z/
Clark IN-Spencer KY-Oldham KY-Shelby KY-Nelson KY-Jefferson KY-
Bullitt KY-
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CLARK...
SPENCER...OLDHAM...WESTERN SHELBY...NORTH CENTRAL NELSON...EAST
CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN BULLITT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
215 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3852 8538 3843 8533 3840 8533 3837 8529
      3824 8521 3795 8527 3787 8553 3796 8556
      3823 8546 3848 8559 3852 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 263DEG 21KT 3850 8532 3826 8527 3794 8521 

$$

EER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Multiple threats in play today from severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding. A training cluster of storms early this morning has
already produced significant flash flooding in Boyle and Lincoln
Counties, with MRMS showing rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches.
Residual boundary remains draped from near Tell City to Danville,
and that is just where we do not need additional rain as 1-hr FFG is
as low as 1 inch.

WW 221 just issued by SPC, mainly for the MCS incoming from the
Wabash Valley. However with the favorable pulse environment in
place, any storms developing ahead of that system could easily go
severe as well. Main threat is damaging winds.

Expect a downward trend in the SVR threat after 21Z.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...Another Round of Strong Thunderstorms Expected Today...
...Flash Flood Watch Issued for Portions of the Area...

In the wake of afternoon convection, we've been in a little bit of a
short wave ridge axis since last evening.  This ridge has broken
down slightly as some additional convection has been firing east of
the I-65 corridor.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the
region with readings mainly in the lower 70s.  In the near term, we
expect low cloudiness and scattered showers to continue across the
area with the best chances of rain mainly east of the I-65 corridor.
Temperatures are likely not to move too much through sunrise.

For today, quasi-stationary boundary will remain draped across the
central portions of Kentucky.  Latest CAM guidance suggests that
another perturbation out across central MO will move eastward and
into our region this afternoon.  We'll see some delay in
destabilization early this morning, due to low clouds.  However, we
may scour out a bit quicker and then get some heating to destabilize
things for the afternoon.  Shear parameters continue to look rather
marginal for organized severe weather.  However, strong storms are
likely given the favorable/expected instability parameters and we
would not be surprised to have a few severe storms out there this
afternoon with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Of greater concern is the heavy rainfall potential.  MRMS and
Doppler Radar estimates show a swath of 2-4 inch rainfall amounts
across the central portions of our CWA that fell yesterday.  Another
round of heavy rainfall is likely today with the storms and this
will increase our flash flood threat.  For this reason, have
coordinated with surrounding offices and will hoist a Flash Flood
Watch for the southern 2/3rds of our forecast area.  Mainly in areas
generally south of the I-64 corridor.  While widespread flooding is
not anticipated, there are a few areas that will likely see some
local flooding issues, especially if they get repeated storms.
Greatest flash flood potential would be in a belt of counties from
Hancock through Hardin and then eastward over into Madison County.

Temperatures today will likely average out in the mid 80s in the
north with mid-upper 80s across the south.  Temps could end up being
a little under if convection gets going early and disrupts our
normal diurnal heating cycle.

For tonight, initial band of storms from the afternoon will likely
press eastward into diminish as they plow through eastern Kentucky.
We might see a brief lull in the action until the next wave
approaches the region late tonight.  Initial thoughts were to allow
flash flood watch to continue into the overnight period.  However,
low confidence on the mesoscale environment and overall storm
evolution for late tonight is of low confidence.  Therefore, will
allow the watch to go until 03Z.  An expansion in time/area may be
needed if successive forecasts key in more on the convective
evolution for later tonight and early Wed.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Wednesday into
later Wednesday evening as a shortwave and it's associated surface
low pass through the Great Lakes region. Given moderate instability,
and some deep layer flow thanks to the shortwave energy, some strong
to severe storms will be possible. In addition, continued rainfall
over areas that have seen many rounds of recent storms could lead to
localized flooding issues. Look for highs in the mid to upper 80s
Wednesday, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday night.

Thursday - Saturday Night...

Strong upper ridging builds over our region and then centers over
the mid Atlantic coast by late in the weekend. This will bring
overall drier and hotter conditions to the area. Can't completely
shut off the shower and storm chances each afternoon, however given
the subsidence offered by the strong upper ridge should see only
isolated coverage chances Friday and Saturday.

The bigger story will be the heat and humidity. H85 temps look to
climb into the 20-22C range which should support temps in the low
90s, with mid 90s possible on Friday. These readings combined with
dew points up in the low and mid 70s will result in max heat indices
in the 100-109 range on Saturday, and around 100 on Thursday and
Saturday. Will have to watch for the need for an Excessive Heat
Advisory during this time, especially for Friday. Overnight lows
will remain mild in the 70-75 range.

Sunday - Monday...

The upper ridge axis will lose most of it's influence over our area
by this time, as more zonal flow sinks over the northern third of
the CONUS. The Ohio River Valley will be situated between the
stronger westerlies and and a nearly stationary weak frontal
boundary to our N/NW, and the upper ridge to our E/SE. The heat and
humidity will still be around, but with the loss of
subsidence/capping from the upper ridge we should expect better
coverage and chances of storm development. For now, will continue
mention of scattered shower and storm development along with
continued muggy highs in the low 90s. Mild overnight lows in the 70-
75 degree range should continue.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Thunderstorms are popping throughout the area so will initialize all
the terminals with at least VCTS. Organized line passed through HNB
with a 40 kt peak gust, and the northern portion of the line should
hold together to warrant a TEMPO for 30-35kt gusts in SDF and LEX
this afternoon. IFR visibility in rain will be too brief, so will
mention MVFR vis for now. Should be a break in the precip this
evening with only a mid-level ceiling, but the next complex comes
into play after 07-09Z Wed. This far ahead of time will just carry
SHRA/VCTS, and keep ceilings and vis VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ083-084-089>091.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>030-034-035-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

&&

Update...RAS
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....BJS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

INZ083-084-089>091-KYZ023>030-034-035-038>041-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082-271045-
Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon,
New Albany, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville,
Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville,
Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia,
Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018 /543 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move through the outlook area
this afternoon. The main hazard will be heavy rainfall with a risk of
flash flooding. A few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday.

Heat and humidity will return to the region later in the week, with
heat index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees Thursday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any wind damage or flooding.

INZ076>079-092-KYZ031>033-036-037-042-043-271045-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Clark-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Harrison-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
Jeffersonville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Georgetown,
Cynthiana, Paris, and Carlisle
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move through the outlook area
this afternoon. The main hazard will be heavy rainfall with a risk of
flash flooding. A few of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday.

Heat and humidity will return to the region later in the week, with
heat index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees Thursday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any wind damage or flooding.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HARDINSBURG       37.76N 86.46W
06/26/2018  M52 MPH          BRECKINRIDGE       KY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION HARD, 1 SSW HARDINSBURG.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HARDINSBURG       37.76N 86.46W
06/26/2018  M52 MPH          BRECKINRIDGE       KY   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FOR
            TIME...MESONET STATION HARD 1 SSW
            HARDINSBURG.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTTSBURG              38.69N 85.78W
06/26/2018                   SCOTT              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAIN INTERSECTIONS FLOODED IN SCOTTSBURG.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSBURG              38.69N 85.78W
06/26/2018                   SCOTT              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TREES DOWN ON HOMES IN SCOTTSBURG, IN.

&&

JMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KYZ049-057-261745-
Clark-Madison-
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

At 124 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Palmer, moving
east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harris Ferry, Goffs Corner, Rightangle, Vianna, Mina, Agawam, Hunt,
College Hill, Cotton Branch and Trapp.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3792 8399 3790 8399 3786 8401 3787 8403
      3784 8400 3783 8404 3785 8406 3782 8407
      3785 8408 3784 8410 3782 8412 3781 8412
      3782 8410 3781 8408 3778 8411 3776 8409
      3776 8416 3791 8419 3796 8398 3794 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 258DEG 32KT 3784 8408

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
128 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S UNION STAR          37.88N 86.45W
06/26/2018                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN 7 N OF HARDINSBURG AREA OF KY
            2279.

&&

CG