Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Wetter Weather To End The Work Week...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms have developed along the I-
64 corridor this afternoon, with more isolated to widely scattered
coverage elsewhere. This should continue through peak heating, and
then diminish in coverage with the loss of peak heating. The best
coverage of storms should continue to be along the I-64 corridor as
a PWAT maximum ~2" will slide across that area. Elsewhere, coverage
appears to be driven by localized processes and will be less
focused.

Given moderate instability and weak deep layer flow overall storm
mode should be pulse and unorganized in nature. Gusty winds and
cloud to ground lightning should be the main threats. In fact,
already had a gust near 50 mph measured by the Lexington Mesonet
site, as well as some trees and powerlines down in Lexington. Think
any severe threat will be localized in nature though. There is also
some concern for a localized heavy rain threat, but storms should
mostly stay progressive to the east. Will watch for training and
localized backbuilding but overall should be able to handle expected
precipitation.

Should expect a quiet late evening and early morning time frame,
with lows only dropping into the lower 70s.

As we move toward the pre-dawn hours expect a plume of deep Gulf
moisture to move into our region from the SW ahead of an upper low
moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Given some forcing and
enhance moisture transport from a mid level wave and subtle low
level jet, widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms look pretty
likely from the pre-dawn hours through midday across our CWA. By
early afternoon, a mid level dry slot will begin to work into the
area, with coverage becoming more scattered. Temps will be cooler
given the timing of precipitation and cloud cover, so only look for
highs in the lower 80s. Overall, should be a pretty good soaking
rain for most.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Closed low will be over northern Missouri Thursday evening, with a
moist airmass aided by tropical air streaming in from the southwest
will continue over the region. Our are will stay in the warm sector
of this system overnight, so look for scattered development of
storms almost anytime, even with loss of daytime heating. More
widespread activity should be focused just northeast of the region,
ahead of a warm front extending east of the surface reflection of
this system.

We stay on the more enhanced side of the upper low through the day
Friday, so expect additional showers/storms to develop. Given less
warming from cloud cover though, not expecting widespread severe
weather. The main tropical plume will be east of the region, so a
little less concerned for flood potential here, but a lot will
depend on how much we get with the wave in the short term.

Saturday, the upper low will move east of the region and we get into
a zonal flow. We should dry out briefly by afternoon, but another
wave moving in that night should bring rain chances back to the
region into the day Sunday as well. The front associated with this
wave should bring another dry period Monday and Tuesday, perhaps
even with respect to surface dewpoints giving a break from the
humidity. We return to a warmer pattern though for the midweek, with
better rain chances ahead of another wave Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. However, given the moist and unstable atmosphere
we are already seeing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms popping up along the I-64 corridor. Best coverage
should exist through sunset and then diminish with the loss of
daytime heating. Have included TEMPO -TSRA with expected best timing
at each TAF site. With in any thunderstorm you can expect reduced
visibility and gusty winds.

Through late evening and the overnight we'll return to quieter
conditions (mostly dry and very little precip coverage). However
this will be brief as focus shifts to another round of widespread
rainfall around the pre-dawn hours. This next wave of precipitation
associated with a plume of deep gulf moisture will arrive from the
southwest. BWG and HNB will see impacts first with ceilings possibly
down around the IFR threshold. A few rumbles of thunder are also
possible. Further east, SDF and LEX precip arrival will be around
sunrise or just after with the lowest ceilings to be in the low MVFR
range. Surface winds during this forecast period will be steady and
WSW this afternoon gradually backing to a SW component overnight, and
S tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...BJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...CDB/BJS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYZ041-042-049-201930-
Bourbon-Fayette-Clark-
303 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON AND NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 302 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located just northwest of
Bryan Station, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northeast sections of Lexington, Winchester, Paris, Thoroughbred
Acres, Bryan Station, Northland, Constant Station, Hutchison, Renick
and Stony Point.

LAT...LON 3805 8450 3817 8450 3823 8412 3796 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 273DEG 16KT 3811 8443

RAS

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