Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Louisville, KY

119 
WWUS53 KLMK 201945
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYC097-209-201955-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-180620T1945Z/
Scott KY-Harrison KY-
345 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SCOTT AND HARRISON
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds around 40 mph are still possible with this thunderstorm.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3834 8424 3831 8428 3831 8431 3829 8433
      3830 8434 3829 8434 3829 8436 3830 8436
      3828 8437 3829 8442 3828 8444 3839 8468
      3843 8462 3849 8456 3851 8450 3846 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 290DEG 21KT 3839 8443 

$$

RAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Wetter Weather To End The Work Week...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms have developed along the I-
64 corridor this afternoon, with more isolated to widely scattered
coverage elsewhere. This should continue through peak heating, and
then diminish in coverage with the loss of peak heating. The best
coverage of storms should continue to be along the I-64 corridor as
a PWAT maximum ~2" will slide across that area. Elsewhere, coverage
appears to be driven by localized processes and will be less
focused.

Given moderate instability and weak deep layer flow overall storm
mode should be pulse and unorganized in nature. Gusty winds and
cloud to ground lightning should be the main threats. In fact,
already had a gust near 50 mph measured by the Lexington Mesonet
site, as well as some trees and powerlines down in Lexington. Think
any severe threat will be localized in nature though. There is also
some concern for a localized heavy rain threat, but storms should
mostly stay progressive to the east. Will watch for training and
localized backbuilding but overall should be able to handle expected
precipitation.

Should expect a quiet late evening and early morning time frame,
with lows only dropping into the lower 70s.

As we move toward the pre-dawn hours expect a plume of deep Gulf
moisture to move into our region from the SW ahead of an upper low
moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Given some forcing and
enhance moisture transport from a mid level wave and subtle low
level jet, widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms look pretty
likely from the pre-dawn hours through midday across our CWA. By
early afternoon, a mid level dry slot will begin to work into the
area, with coverage becoming more scattered. Temps will be cooler
given the timing of precipitation and cloud cover, so only look for
highs in the lower 80s. Overall, should be a pretty good soaking
rain for most.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Closed low will be over northern Missouri Thursday evening, with a
moist airmass aided by tropical air streaming in from the southwest
will continue over the region. Our are will stay in the warm sector
of this system overnight, so look for scattered development of
storms almost anytime, even with loss of daytime heating. More
widespread activity should be focused just northeast of the region,
ahead of a warm front extending east of the surface reflection of
this system.

We stay on the more enhanced side of the upper low through the day
Friday, so expect additional showers/storms to develop. Given less
warming from cloud cover though, not expecting widespread severe
weather. The main tropical plume will be east of the region, so a
little less concerned for flood potential here, but a lot will
depend on how much we get with the wave in the short term.

Saturday, the upper low will move east of the region and we get into
a zonal flow. We should dry out briefly by afternoon, but another
wave moving in that night should bring rain chances back to the
region into the day Sunday as well. The front associated with this
wave should bring another dry period Monday and Tuesday, perhaps
even with respect to surface dewpoints giving a break from the
humidity. We return to a warmer pattern though for the midweek, with
better rain chances ahead of another wave Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. However, given the moist and unstable atmosphere
we are already seeing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms popping up along the I-64 corridor. Best coverage
should exist through sunset and then diminish with the loss of
daytime heating. Have included TEMPO -TSRA with expected best timing
at each TAF site. With in any thunderstorm you can expect reduced
visibility and gusty winds.

Through late evening and the overnight we'll return to quieter
conditions (mostly dry and very little precip coverage). However
this will be brief as focus shifts to another round of widespread
rainfall around the pre-dawn hours. This next wave of precipitation
associated with a plume of deep gulf moisture will arrive from the
southwest. BWG and HNB will see impacts first with ceilings possibly
down around the IFR threshold. A few rumbles of thunder are also
possible. Further east, SDF and LEX precip arrival will be around
sunrise or just after with the lowest ceilings to be in the low MVFR
range. Surface winds during this forecast period will be steady and
WSW this afternoon gradually backing to a SW component overnight, and
S tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...BJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...CDB/BJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-210730-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
321 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 /221 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a cold front this
afternoon. The main threats with thunderstorms today will be heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Training of thunderstorms could
lead to localized flooding this afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will increase, especially on Thursday and
Friday. A few storms could produce very heavy rainfall, which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or flooding they
encounter today and the rest of this week.

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
231 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S LEXINGTON           37.97N 84.49W
06/20/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT OF TREE DOWN COMING NEAR
            RIVER PARK HILL. ALSO REPORT OF POWER
            OUTAGES IN AREA. FAYETTE COUNTY MESONET HAD
            A 46 MPH GUST.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
236 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYZ033-201900-
Henry-
236 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENRY COUNTY...

At 236 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Castle,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Castle, Pendleton, Eminence, Pleasureville, Campbellsburg,
Smithfield, Port Royal, North Pleasureville, Drennon Springs and
Delville.

LAT...LON 3856 8506 3857 8504 3855 8500 3851 8503
      3850 8502 3852 8500 3852 8498 3849 8499
      3848 8497 3836 8493 3835 8497 3834 8506
      3836 8528 3840 8533 3846 8535 3850 8531
      3850 8528 3854 8522 3859 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 256DEG 16KT 3843 8526

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYZ035-036-040-201915-
Scott-Woodford-Franklin-
247 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WOODFORD...SOUTHERN
SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 247 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Frankfort,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Frankfort, Midway, Stamping Ground, Slickway,
Skinnersburg, Moon Lake Estates, Muddy Ford, Great Crossing and
Herdon.

LAT...LON 3829 8444 3827 8444 3819 8446 3818 8447
      3813 8461 3815 8484 3830 8484 3832 8444
      3831 8443 3830 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 273DEG 17KT 3821 8475

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
251 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYZ040-041-048-201915-
Woodford-Fayette-Jessamine-
251 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WOODFORD...
NORTHWESTERN JESSAMINE AND SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 249 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Versailles,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwest sections of Lexington, Nicholasville, Dunbar High School,
U K Arboretum, Fayette Mall, Wilmore, Jessamine, Mortonsville, Troy
and Pinckard.

LAT...LON 3784 8453 3790 8477 3791 8478 3791 8480
      3801 8480 3803 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 273DEG 17KT 3796 8472

RAS

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED STORM LOCATION
National Weather Service Louisville KY
251 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYZ040-041-048-201915-
Woodford-Fayette-Jessamine-
251 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WOODFORD...
NORTHWESTERN JESSAMINE AND SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 249 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located south of
Versailles, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwest sections of Lexington, Nicholasville, Dunbar High School,
U K Arboretum, Fayette Mall, Wilmore, Jessamine, Mortonsville, Troy
and Pinckard.

LAT...LON 3784 8453 3790 8477 3791 8478 3791 8480
      3801 8480 3803 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 273DEG 17KT 3796 8472

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

KYZ041-042-049-201930-
Bourbon-Fayette-Clark-
303 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON AND NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 302 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located just northwest of
Bryan Station, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northeast sections of Lexington, Winchester, Paris, Thoroughbred
Acres, Bryan Station, Northland, Constant Station, Hutchison, Renick
and Stony Point.

LAT...LON 3805 8450 3817 8450 3823 8412 3796 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 273DEG 16KT 3811 8443

RAS