River Flood Warning 38, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
115 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

After coordinating with IND and ILN, have decided to drop the Flash
Flood Watch from southern Indiana and parts of extreme north central
Kentucky. Only light rains are expected in those areas today. Will
hold on to the watch in the Blue Grass where higher rainfall rates
have been experienced this morning and will continue into this
afternoon.

At 11am EDT low pressure was centered near Lawrenceburg with a cold
front dropping southwest to around Scottsville. Scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of these features
this afternoon, though widespread clouds and rain will keep
instability in check.

Dropped afternoon high temps a few degrees in the north in region of
heavy cloudcover, patchy light rain, and northeast breezes. At 11am
some reporting sites in southern Indiana were still in the upper 50s.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

At this hour, we have a broad low pressure area over Central
Kentucky with water vapor imagery showing a continued plume of moist
air coming up out of the southwest. The surface feature is not
moving much, as are the warm front extending east from near
Shepherdsville to Lexington. The surface low should start
accelerating eastward today as an upper trough sharpens and moves
across the Midwest. The surface low may start deepening a little as
this occurs, perhaps causing more watch to thunderstorms in our east
for possible short-lived spinups, similar to yesterday over Western
Kentucky.

Given yesterday's rainfall over the northern half of the region, any
further heavier rain showers associated with this surface low will
have a chance for flash flooding to occur again. Though overall QPF
amounts will be lower today, this package calls for 1-2 inches in
our Bluegrass counties and less to the west and south, will maintain
the Flood Watch as is. Could probably trim off some of our northwest
counties as the morning continues.

Once the upper trough kicks the front east of the region, we should
dry out, though low clouds likely will persist tonight. Temperatures
today will have a broad range, likely not reaching the 70s in our
northern counties to near 80 around Lake Cumberland. Lows tonight,
under a general west to northwest wind will fall into the 50s for
some locations.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

Monday morning, the surface low that was Gordon is expected to be on
the northern state line of Ohio. Its trailing cold front with
associated rainfall will come as close as eastern Kentucky. A few
chances of showers will remain in the eastern parts of the Bluegrass
and south-central Kentucky in the CWA. This front will continue to
quickly move east ahead of an advancing surface high that will move
east from Missouri and Iowa. As this high takes hold over the CWA,
rain chances will continue to drop.

Wednesday, the weakly amplified upper trough lifts to the north into
the main flow. The NAM develops a surface low that creates northward
flow at the mid and lower levels bringing moisture and a chance of
rain to central Kentucky. The GFS downplays this with no surface low
and much lower moisture transport and rain chances.

Through the weekend, Florence moves into the picture. If Florence
continues on its current forecasted path, which leads it to the
Atlantic Coast, it's going to influence synoptic flow for the
eastern US. Models try to push broken precipitation into the CWA on
disturbances interacting with Florence. In the updated forecast,
things were kept mostly dry for areas to the north and west in the
CWA. Areas to the south and east were left with low (10-20%) chances
of precipitation on and off from Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

Low pressure over eastern Kentucky this afternoon will lift to Lake
Erie by tomorrow afternoon. High RH air trapped under a low level
inversion behind this low will plague the TAF sites through tonight
and into Monday morning with IFR/LIFR cigs. Ceilings should begin to
lift slightly Monday afternoon but remain sub-VFR.

Showers will cross the area this afternoon but tonight into tomorrow
morning those will be replaced with patchy light drizzle and BR,
resulting in MVFR vsby late tonight into early Monday morning.

With our position behind the aforementioned low, winds will come in
generally from the WNW around 4-7kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ032-033-
     035>037-040>043-048-049-057.

&&

Update...13
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...KDW
Aviation...13

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     FLOOD            3 NW RUCKERVILLE        37.97N 84.14W
09/09/2018                   CLARK              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO FROM BROADCAST MEDIA
            SHOWS LARGE AMOUNT OF FLOODING ALONG IRVINE
            ROAD SOUTHEAST OF WINCHESTER.

&&