Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Louisville, KY

399 
WGUS73 KLMK 090414
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1214 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

INC019-043-061-KYC111-185-090423-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-180909T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison IN-Clark IN-Floyd IN-Oldham KY-Jefferson KY-
1214 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
CLARK...CENTRAL FLOYD...WESTERN OLDHAM AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1215 AM EDT...

The heaviest rains have ended. Though additional showers are in the 
metro area. An Areal Flood Warning is currently in effect because of 
continued standing water. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3848 8549 3828 8547 3826 8541 3812 8543
      3807 8555 3809 8571 3800 8608 3826 8608

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
759 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Coordinated with SPC, and we decided on a TOR Watch til 03z for
counties along and near the warm front along the OH River and across
the northern part of central KY. Did not take it farther east to the
LEX metro since the primary threat in the short term is to the west.
Radar has been indicating a few cells with low-level rotation. Cells
that are able to translate along the warm frontal boundary will have
the highest potential to produce a tornado vs. cells that cross the
boundary into the cooler, more stable air to the north of the warm
front. Not expecting a high-end threat, but enough low-level shear
and low LCLs and just enough instability to warrant a Watch for the
next few hours. We will monitor the situation closely this evening.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Afternoon surface analysis reveals the remnant center of TD Gordon
just northwest of Evansville, IN.  The remnant has been moving east-
northeast today and this trajectory is expected to continue.  A warm
frontal boundary was located in an east-west orientation very close
to the I-64 corridor.  KY mesonet and NWS ASOS obs show dewpoints in
the lower 70s to the south of the boundary.  SPC meso analysis shows
moderate instability in place with CAPEs running around 1000-1500
J/Kg.  Cellular convection has been developing mainly east of the I-
65 corridor where substantial insolation occurred today.  Strongest
cell moved through Madison county and is now moving into WFO JKL's
CWA.

In the near term, the latest CAMs suggest that additional scattered
cellular convection will continue to develop and move northeastward.
We are on guard for cellular convection that could end up crossing
that warm-frontal boundary in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor.
Best shear parameters and low LCL heights are roughly located from
Louisville eastward through the Lexington metro region.  Any strong
storm interacting with that boundary will have the potential to
rotate, possibly resulting in a tornado or two.

Otherwise, large convective cluster over the far NW LMK CWA will
continue to move northeastward. Best chances of rainfall looks to be
north of the WK Parkway and west of I-65 through the afternoon
hours.  The strongest storms look to stay just west of the
Louisville metro area.  However, heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding will be the primary hazard across southern IN this
afternoon.  Rainfall amounts of 1-2 in/hr are likely as the remnant
circulation pushes through south-central IN.

Moving into the evening and overnight, the latest guidance continues
to be in agreement with the remnant circulation of TD Gordon moving
into SE IN and then into OH during the overnight period.  Scattered
banded convection will likely trail the remnant circulation.  We're
already seeing this out across western KY.  This activity will
translate eastward and an overall decrease in coverage and
intensity is expected after sunset.  During the overnight hours,
surface cold front will approach from the northwest and the low-
level jet will increase across the region.  This will likely fire
additional convection within the I-65 corridor after midnight and
toward dawn on Sunday which will track eastward.  This activity will
pose a heavy rain threat to the Bluegrass region.  Therefore we
coordinated an extension of the Flood Watch into our NE sections a
little while ago.  Overnight lows tonight will be quite mild with
readings only dropping into the lower 70s.  Some spots in our far
northwest could drop into the lower-mid 60s late tonight as cooler
air filters in behind the surface frontal boundary.

For Sunday, the surface cold front will work its way across the area
accompanied by a band of showers and storms.  The storms could be on
the strong side Sunday afternoon, especially in areas east of the I-
65 corridor and really in the I-75 corridor.  Current thinking is
that cloud cover will be somewhat of an inhibiting factor on
convection.  However a fast low-mid level flow combined with
dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s and forced ascent along the
boundary interface could produce a line of storms that would be
capable of some wind damage in our eastern sections.  Currently that
area is in a marginal risk for tomorrow afternoon and that seems
reasonable, though if more insolation occurs I could see an upgrade
to a sight risk being warranted.  Highs tomorrow will likely exhibit
a gradient with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the
eastern parts of the region.  Highs may only top out in the low 70s
across southern IN and far NW KY.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Sunday night the low that used to be TC Gordon will lift northward
across Ohio and drag its trailing cold front into the Appalachians.
Rain associated with this system will move on to the east and
gradually taper off. Any additional rainfall amounts will be light,
on the order of a quarter inch east of I-65.

Quieter weather will prevail for much of the long term as a weak
surface high builds in behind the departing storm system. Weak upper
troffing overhead will steadily weaken as we move into mid week,
with possible weak ridging beginning to build by late in the week,
though that will depend somewhat on Florence.

Florence is currently expected to impact the Atlantic coast Friday-
Saturday, likely in the vicinity of South Carolina. Typically when a
hurricane is affecting the east/southeast coast the Ohio Valley
tends to be dry. The GFS is showing QPF for us Fri-Sat, but may be
overdoing it given the weak synoptic ridging at the surface and
aloft (especially Friday). The EC, EPS, and CMC are all drier in
Indiana and Kentucky, possibly as a result of their placements of
Florence being farther west than the GFS/GEFS. In the forecast, will
lean drier.

As we dry out and ridging builds, daily maximum temperatures will
rise from the middle 70s on Monday to the middle and upper 80s
Friday and Saturday. Urban Louisville may even make a run at 90 on
Friday. The coolest morning will arrive on Tuesday with lows in the
50s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Area of steady rain continues to progress across south-central IN
early this evening, including HNB with areas of heavy rain along/
near the OH River which should affect SDF from 00-02z. A surface
warm front is located W of SDF to S of SDF and LEX with E to NE
winds at HNB, SDF, and LEX north of the front, and a SW wind at BWG
south of the front. Rain should diminish at HNB to off and on
showers over the next couple hours, while rain picks up later this
evening and overnight at LEX. Despite pockets of heavy rain, there
is not much CG lightning, and for the most part, have kept the
mention of storms out of the TAFs. Ceilings have varied between VFR
and IFR north of the warm front, with VFR conditions at BWG south of
the front.

Winds overnight and into Sunday at SDF and LEX will slowly shift to
SE and finally S as the surface low meanders east across south-
central IN near the OH River. Additional off and on showers are
expected. Ceilings should vary between IFR and MVFR at the northern
TAF sites, while lower clouds eventually develop at BWG overnight
and Sunday. By later in the day Sunday, the low will move to the N
and/or E of all TAF sites causing surface winds to eventually become
W and NW. However, low ceilings will continue, varying between IFR
and low MVFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ030>037-040>043-
     048-049-057.

&&

Update.......TWF
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....13
Aviation.....TWF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ030>037-040>043-048-049-057-091945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Jessamine-Madison-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Nicholasville, Winchester, and Richmond
345 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 /245 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread rains and scattered thunderstorms are forecast as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon approach the region. Localized
flooding is likely, with flash flooding possible where the heaviest
rains occur. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe with an isolated
tornado or two possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Expect more soaking rains Sunday during the day, with continued
chances for stronger storms into the Bluegrass in the afternoon
hours. Localized flooding is likely, with flash flooding possible
where the heaviest rains occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
along with stronger wind gusts this weekend.

KYZ023>029-038-039-045>047-053>056-061>067-070>078-081-082-091945-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Spencer-
Anderson-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Morgantown, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
345 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 /245 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this
afternoon and into the evening hours as the remnants of tropical
storm Gordon pass through. Some storms could be rather strong with
gusty winds and the possibility of a few spin up tornadoes.
Torrential rainfall will be likely with any storm along with frequent
lightning. Localized flooding is possible especially in areas that
receive multiple rounds of storms or have experienced heavy rainfall
in the last few days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Expect more soaking rains Sunday during the day, with continued
chances for stronger storms into the Bluegrass in the afternoon
hours. Localized flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are
the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
along with stronger wind gusts this weekend.

MJ/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
701 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNW MYERS             38.40N 83.98W
09/08/2018  E2.80 INCH       NICHOLAS           KY   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
708 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

INZ079-092-KYZ031>034-082330-
Jefferson-Clark-Oldham-Shelby-Henry-Trimble-
708 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN CLARK...EASTERN OLDHAM...NORTHWESTERN
SHELBY...TRIMBLE AND WESTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

At 707 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 10 miles east of Scottsburg to near La
Grange to 7 miles west of Shelbyville. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

Winds to 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Madison, La Grange, New Castle, Bedford, Pendleton,
Hanover, Eminence, Simpsonville and Saluda.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3874 8528 3873 8533 3863 8523 3858 8521
      3858 8518 3824 8513 3816 8537 3845 8541
      3868 8556 3883 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 228DEG 24KT 3873 8558 3848 8538 3825 8535

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEAVENWORTH       38.21N 86.36W
09/08/2018                   CRAWFORD           IN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 62.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEAVENWORTH       38.21N 86.36W
09/08/2018                   CRAWFORD           IN   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 1
            WNW LEAVENWORTH. TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 62.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
738 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

INZ092-KYZ030>033-090015-
Clark-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Trimble-
738 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLARK...OLDHAM...SOUTHWESTERN
TRIMBLE...WEST CENTRAL HENRY AND NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 738 PM EDT, a shower was located over Prospect, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Prospect, Worthington Hills, Coldstream, Pendleton,
Crestwood, Orchard Grass Hills, Pewee Valley, Owen and Goshen.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this shower, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3829 8554 3836 8568 3859 8551 3847 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 217DEG 29KT 3835 8557

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
819 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORYDON                 38.21N 86.13W
09/08/2018                   HARRISON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJOR FLOODING IN CORYDON. WATER IS OVER
            ROADS THAT DO NOT NORMALLY FLOOD.

&&

EBW