Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Louisville, KY

675 
WGUS73 KLMK 021855
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

KYC067-021905-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-180702T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette KY-
255 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat, but area creeks and streams may continue to run high for the 
next hour or two. 

LAT...LON 3809 8437 3802 8438 3802 8442 3803 8446
      3805 8449 3811 8448 3812 8445

$$

DM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Our area resides on the western side of a strong ridge that has been
bringing heat to the eastern U.S. the last few days. Troughiness
moving into that ridge will bring unsettled weather to the area
today. GOES Sounder indicates a precipitable water of 1.6-1.8 inches
over the region this morning, in line with the 00Z BNA sounding.
Moisture pooling during the day...ahead of a weak frontal
boundary...likely will pump that level up to around 2 inches,
which along with the troughing aloft should be enough for a good
chance of rains for most today.

HREF has a few pockets of 0.5 inch rainfall totals this afternoon,
mainly along the Ohio River. Knowing that ensembles water down
those peak values, we likely will see pockets of 1-2 inches of
rainfall today, possibly leading to localized flooding issues
similar to Sunday. Also of note will be the slower storm motions
today, so look for flood advisories/warnings under those heavier
cores.

Also similar to yesterday, CAPE values rise quickly through the
morning hours before the onset of storms starts to limit them. Would
not be surprised to see one or two cells develop quickly and with
their collapse generate stronger wind gusts. Then by mid to late
afternoon we should see less chance for any severe winds.

Activity should die down with loss of heating tonight, but given
higher surface moisture we likely will see continued above normal
low temperatures, as well as some patches of fog.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Tuesday through the rest of the week is still shaping up to be very
warm and humid with a few notable precip chances. The Fourth of July
will likely be the hottest and driest day this week. Afternoon heat
indices in the 100-105 degree range are looking likely for
Independence Day.

Not much change at all in the synoptic features during this period.
Strengthening upper high retrogrades westward across the region in
the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Upper ridging will be
building west over KY and southern IN on Tuesday as weak mid-level
vort energy shifts northwest of the Ohio River. A band of increased
moisture aloft will likewise shift northwest with time, keeping
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The highest
rain chances of 40 to 50 percent will be across southern Indiana.

Drier air advecting in along with a 598 dam ridge of high pressure
aloft will keep the weather mainly dry for the Fourth. However,
afternoon high temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s. The
heat index could approach 105 across a good chunk of the forecast
area.

We'll start to see weakness in the upper ridging on Thursday, with
heights aloft really falling off on Friday. A storm system in
eastern Canada will send a cold front south into the Ohio Valley,
resulting in higher rain and thunderstorm chances heading into the
weekend. Once that boundary pushes through, highs could drop into
the mid/upper 80s for Saturday. Lingering storm chances associated
with the boundary will be highest across southern KY on Saturday.
Areas further north may be able to dry out by Saturday morning.
There's still some uncertainty on where the boundary ends up by
Sunday, with a possible drift back to the north by Monday. So
looking at isolated to scattered PoPs across central KY for now on
Sunday, with a dry forecast in southern IN.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

An upper level wave will help spark scattered thunderstorms in the
warm and very sticky air this afternoon. SDF should be the most
affected by storms, so will go beyond just VCTS there and introduce
a TEMPO group. The storms will produce locally torrential rain and
gusty winds.

Storms will slowly dissipate this evening with mostly quiet
conditions overnight. Some light BR may form around dawn in the
still, humid air.

Tomorrow a wave is predicted to drift northwestward from the
Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and will spark scattered
showers and storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1130 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031530-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
1130 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018 /1030 AM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop today. These storms will be slow
moving, so the main threats will be localized flooding as well as
brief gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Outside of any cooling thunderstorms, expect peak heat index values
to rise to around 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. Any
storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Heat
index values around 105 degrees are possible during the afternoon and
early evening of the Fourth of July. Thunderstorm chances will
increase again Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooded roadways or creeks as well as
stronger wind gusts or damage today.

13