River Flood Warning 55, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
439 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Regional radars showed line of storms, from east of Jackson to
Lake Pontchartrain to Morgan City, and scattered to numerous
showers were ahead of this line of storms, mainly over the east
half of forecast area. Special 06z sounding revealed surface base
cape value 2300 j/kg and precipitable water value of 1.7 inches.
Veering winds were still in play with a south wind of 45kts at
850mb and a southwest wind of 50kts at 500mb. Modest or skinny
cape values were noted above -20c. However, dry layer was noted
from 500mb to 400mb.

Latest surface analysis showed a 1003mb low over west Tennessee
with a cold front extending south to southwest Mississippi to
Lafayette to northwest Gulf. Pressure gradient of 4mb was located
across the forecast area. With 45kts at 850mb and surface temps
holding the 70s, surface winds have not decoupled and winds remain
breezy to windy ahead of the front. Wind

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery showed a vigorous wave
over Oklahoma to north central Texas. A 110 knot jet max was noted
over south texas to southwest Louisiana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The threat of severe weather will exist across central and
eastern portions of our forecast area this morning. With veering
winds with height ahead of the line of storms and drying in the
mid layers, isolated tornadoes and damaging winds through will
be the threat this morning. Progressive pattern will allow convection
to push east across the forecast area this morning. Will delay ZFP
and AFD to capture the stable approaching from the west this morning
through this afternoon. Ergo, look for several WCN for
updates west to east this morning. Wave has created strong winds
ahead of the wave but cold air advection is modest. As a result,
moderate winds are expected and air mass will be cool. Several
waves on the back side of the main trough will maintain northwest
flow through Saturday.

The next system will increase heights over Lower Mississippi
Valley late Saturday through early next week. GFS and EURO diverge
with the next system. GFS brings a wave across south Texas
becoming negatively tilted across east Texas Sunday night while
EURO maintain a broad trough over central CONUS. Will introduce
rain chances Sunday night and good chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday. Temperatures will return above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

TAFs will completely hinge on the line of thunderstorms moving
across southeast Louisiana and southeastern Mississippi this
morning. Once the line passes through from west to east,
conditions will improve greatly.

&&

.MARINE...

Wind speeds and seas will be elevated this morning as the local
pressure tightens due to a surface low tracking through the Lower
MS Valley and to the northeast. That cold front should push
through the coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Winds will
likely relax this afternoon after frontal passage. Cold air
advection is modest and northwest winds should remain below SCA
tonight. Additional headlines will be needed tonight after the
front. After the front passes through, a short period of offshore
flow will ensue and should persist through early Saturday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Orange.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Slight/Enhanced Risk of severe through noon today.
            Slight Risk of excessive rainfall first half of today.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe
         or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe
         and/or excessive rain; direct tropical threats; Events
         of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  48  63  46 /  70  10  10   0
BTR  70  49  65  45 /  60  10  10   0
ASD  74  53  66  47 / 100  10  10   0
MSY  73  55  66  54 / 100  10  10   0
GPT  74  55  65  50 / 100  20  10   0
PQL  76  56  66  45 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ557-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ575-577.

&&

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