Tornado Warning 42, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
312 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is advancing southeast through East Texas
this morning. A line of storms is along the boundary while
scattered showers are ahead of it. Aloft a short wave is quickly
moving east across the southern plains, and another disturbance is
moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Ahead of the front this morning moisture continues to increase
while lift is also increasing. Shear is expected to remain good
this morning while the frontal boundary pushes through, however
instability will be modest. This will set the stage for scattered
to numerous storms with a marginal risk for severe weather. Gusty
winds will be the main threat, however an isolated tornado can not
be ruled out as well.

A brief dry period will follow tonight, however rain chances will
again increase Monday ahead of the disturbance that is currently
over the Pacific Northwest. This stronger short wave will sweep
across Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning, however much like the first disturbance
instability looks somewhat limited locally, but with that said,
there should be enough forcing to allow for scattered storms with
the possibility of an isolated severe storm.

The frontal boundary associated with the second short wave may not
push all the way through keeping at least a slight chance of rain
in the forecast until the next stronger front passes Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected for next weekend.

&&

.Marine...Winds are decreasing across the coastal waters as the
pressure gradient relaxes this morning. Light to moderate winds
are expected outside of storms through mid week. A strong cold
front will sweep through the area late in the week with a strong
offshore flow expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  56  81  61 /  90   0  30  50
LCH  74  62  81  68 /  90   0  20  30
LFT  76  63  82  67 /  90  10  20  40
BPT  75  63  81  68 /  90   0  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 4 AM CST early this morning
     for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
319 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-050930-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
319 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall, occasional cloud to ground lightning, and
gusty winds will be possible today with numerous thunderstorms along
a cold front. There is also an outside chance of an isolated tornado
over South Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another front will move across Monday night and early Tuesday.
Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
front. If thunderstorms can develop, they may produce strong gusty
winds, hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of
central Louisiana in a Slight Risk for severe storms and the
remainder of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk.

Finally, another cold front is expected on late Thursday or early
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.
Some of the storms could again produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-050930-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
319 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with a weak
cold front today. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty
winds, and an isolated waterspout can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and storms can be expected again early Tuesday with another
weak cold front.

Yet another front will bring showers and thunderstorms on late
Thursday or early Friday. Some of these storms will produce gusty
winds and frequent cloud to water lightning. Behind the front, strong
and gusty north winds will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.