Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.AVIATION...A line of storms will continue to push through. Gusty
winds and lower vis is expected. Conditions will gradually improve
through the day Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1116 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/

UPDATE...
All products were updated for newly issued Tornado Watch #419,
issued for our remaining parishes in s-cntl LA, valid til
12z//07L. No other changes.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 956 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/

UPDATE...
After coordination with SPC/HGX/SHV, have extended Tornado Watch
#416 for sern TX until 05z/midnight CDT as the squall line
continues to move through these zones. Although the airmass over
this region should be mostly worked over from earlier convection,
still not impossible to see a spinup or two, particularly over
Orange/Jefferson. Also reworked the zones to end severe threat
once the line passes through the night.

Update already issued.
25

UPDATE... Grids/zones/coastals updated for newly issued Tornado
Watch #418, valid for most of our LA zones til 09z/04L. The
parishes in lower Acadiana which were not included in this watch
will likely be included in a new watch expected to be issued later
this evening as the squall line continues ewd. No other changes
were made as our much anticipated svr event has been unfolding as
expected.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/

AVIATION...
Frontal sys approaching from the northwest... storms are
developing out ahead of the front. IFR/MVFR conds xpcd this eve
into the overnight hours. Southerly winds to remain brisk ahead of
the front becmg nw and remaining brisk behind the front thru the
overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Tornado watch 416 was just issued for the southeast Texas counties
effective until 10 PM this evening. WFO HGX has received two
reports of tornado touchdowns already this afternoon in the very
early stages of what will likely be a rough weather night across
the area.

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. Synoptically,
an upper trough over western Texas this afternoon will progress
east overnight inducing the development of a surface low across
northeast Texas. This low will quickly eject northeast into
Arkansas swinging a frontal boundary through the area as it does
so early Thursday morning.

Current thinking on the evolution of this event is for discreet
cells to continue forming through mid evening, some of which will
likely become supercellular in nature. A special 19Z LCH RAOB
revealed a CAPE of 1400 J/KG along with decent low level
directional and speed shear (23 knots 0-1 km). An intensifying low
level jet will move across the region this evening further
enhancing supercell potential.

Meanwhile, a squall line is expected to develop across central
Texas before pushing through southeast Texas late tonight and
southwest Louisiana early Thursday morning. As the low level flow
turns more parallel with the squall line, a line of strong to
severe wind is likely to form along the leading edge of the squall
line. The 19Z RAOB also measured a PWAT of 1.82. Forecast
soundings indicate this will continue to climb to above 2 inches
by 06Z which will result in heavy rain potential and a low end
flash flood threat.

The front will push quickly through the area behind the squall
line advecting in significantly cooler, drier air by mid to late
Thursday morning. Seasonal, autumn like temperatures will prevail
Thursday afternoon through Saturday with precipitation chances
returning Sunday as the next frontal boundary approaches.

Jones

MARINE...
Strong and gusty winds will develop tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a surface low and approaching cold
front. Gusts to near gale force are possible late tonight over the
Gulf waters beyond 20 nm. The front will cross the coastal waters
from late tonight into Thursday with numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe.
Moderate north winds are expected in the wake of the front
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  45  66  45 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  71  50  68  51 /  10  10   0   0
LFT  73  51  66  49 /  40  10   0   0
BPT  68  49  68  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ455-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     late tonight for GMZ455-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ450-452-
     470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 7 AM CDT this morning through
     late tonight for GMZ450-452-470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT early this morning
     for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ435.

&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
407 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
012115-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
407 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight over the outlook area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
entire area by this afternoon. Coverage and intensity will
increase late this afternoon into early evening across East Texas
ahead of and along an approaching cold front. An organized band
or bands of thunderstorms, preceded by individual thunderstorms,
will progress eastward across the area overnight into early
Thursday.

Some of these thunderstorms are likely to become severe with
damaging winds and tornadoes, possibly strong tornadoes, being the
primary hazards. Large hail will also be possible.

Locally heavy rainfall resulting in minor flooding of urban and
low lying or poor drainage areas is also possible. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches can be expected with local amounts of up to 6
inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Thunderstorm activity may still be ongoing across parts of South
Central Louisiana early Thursday morning. This activity
will continue to pose the severe and locally heavy rainfall risks
mentioned above until pushing east of the area by late morning.

No hazardous weather is expected from Thursday afternoon through
Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop Sunday as the next frontal boundary approaches the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon through
Thursday morning. Please report instances of severe weather or
storm damage once it is safe to do so.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-012115-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
407 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Strong and gusty wind will continue to develop this evening and
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface low
and cold front. Gusts to near gale force are possible late tonight
over the Gulf waters beyond 20 nm. Exercise caution headlines and
small craft advisories have been issued.

The front will cross the coastal waters from late tonight into
Thursday with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this
evening through Thursday morning. Some of the thunderstorms could
be severe producing strong winds, hail or isolated waterspouts.
Heavy rainfall reducing visibilities to around one mile or less
and frequent cloud to water lightning can also be expected in some
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Widespread showers and thunderstorms may still be ongoing over the
waters east of Intracoastal City early Thursday. This activity
will continue to pose the severe risks mentioned above until
pushing east of the area by midday. A moderate to strong offshore
flow will develop behind the front and persist Thursday night
into Friday.

Winds will become onshore again by Saturday, and periodically
increase through early next week as a couple of fronts approach
the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon through
Thursday morning. Please report instances of severe weather or
storm damage once it is safe to do so.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
208 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW BUNKIE             31.00N 92.24W
11/01/2018                   RAPIDES            LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            US 71 IMPASSABLE DUE TO POWERLINES DOWN IN BUNKIE.

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALEXANDRIA              31.29N 92.46W
10/31/2018                   RAPIDES            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED FROM RAPIDES 911 IN ALEXANDRIA. DAMAGE
            INCLUDES AREAS OF DOWNED TREES, POWERLINES, AND ROOF
            DAMAGE TO HOMES.

&&

RMEGNIA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
249 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

LAZ045-053>055-010845-
Lower St. Martin LA-Iberia LA-Upper St. Martin LA-St. Mary LA-
249 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IBERIA...NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY
AND CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ramah to 8 miles west of Cypremort Point.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Iberia, Catahoula, Franklin, Jeanerette, Cypremort Point, Avery
Island, Belle River, Burns Point, Baldwin, Loreauville, Ellerslie,
Glencoe, Lydia, Sorrel, Cote Blanche Island, Lake Fausse Pointe,
Charenton, Pierre Part, Weeks Island and Centerville.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for southwestern
Louisiana. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 700 AM CDT
for south central Louisiana.

LAT...LON 2952 9155 2956 9152 2964 9157 2958 9176
      2965 9163 2975 9160 2976 9162 2970 9186
      2958 9177 2957 9171 2956 9171 2955 9172
      2962 9193 2982 9182 2987 9198 3033 9163
      3023 9147 3010 9146 3004 9122 2989 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 275DEG 21KT 3033 9150 2975 9198

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