Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Upper level low pressure will drop south from MT into WY later
tonight. A jet streak will round the base of the trough/upper low
across CO Sunday morning, setting the stage for favorable jet
dynamics and lift across our area most of Sunday. Models are in
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will likely develop
within favored left exit region of approaching jet streak this
evening and especially overnight into Sunday morning. The greatest
concentration of precipitation seems most likely to occur across
portions of southwest and west central Nebraska later tonight,
expanding east into central Nebraska Sunday morning. However, all
areas stand a decent chance for some rainfall due to the large
scale lift and available moisture. Prior to the convection later
tonight into Sunday, there is at least some chance that some
convection could survive off the higher terrain and move into
portions of western NE early this evening, but the better chances
will come after mid evening into the overnight.

The upper low will shift eastward into the Panhandle Sunday.
SPC continues a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, but it is
uncertain how the severe risk will play out. Abundant cloud cover
should persist through the day, along with fairly widespread
convection, especially during the morning. If any cloud breaks
develop during the afternoon, then shear and a weak boundary could
focus some strong convection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

The upper low migrates into north central NE Sunday night into
Monday. Confidence is low on heavy rain materializing, and seems
more likely to occur east and southeast of the area. With that said,
still expecting showers and thunderstorms to be likely,
right near and ahead of the upper low center across north central
into central Nebraska.

Upper low should move east of the area Monday night, with weak upper
level ridging bringing dry and warmer weather to the area midweek.
Models do show another long wave trough developing into the western
CONUS late in the week and next weekend. At this point it looks
quite warm and capped ahead of the trough Friday into Saturday. So
we'll keep it warm and only slight chance for any thunderstorms.
GEFS indicating H850mb temps of 26 to 31C, so it could end up being
hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

An upper level across the northen Rockies will move east tonight
and into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely from 04z this evening through 00z Sunday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-242100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 /300 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and strong
winds will be possible later this evening and overnight. The area
of concern will be mainly west of a line from Merriman through
North Platte and Curtis.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Monday as an upper level low
moves through the region. Locally heavy rain could develop in
spots, as well as the potential for a few severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
747 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ022-240230-
Garden NE-
747 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM MDT...

At 747 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, or 21
miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Lisco, Richardson Lake, Rackett, Dogtown Flats, Bluewater
Battlefield State Historical Park and Sugar Loaf Hill.

LAT...LON 4166 10209 4128 10218 4144 10262 4176 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 282DEG 28KT 4166 10258

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
901 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ038-240230-
Custer NE-
901 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Mason City, or 25 miles southeast of Broken Bow,
moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Block Hill Basin, Gavin Siding and Intersection of Highway 183 and
Cumro Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 73 and 82.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 304 and 307.

LAT...LON 4105 9944 4118 9946 4123 9920 4105 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 263DEG 11KT 4111 9936

CDC

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