Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Upper level low pressure will drop south from MT into WY later
tonight. A jet streak will round the base of the trough/upper low
across CO Sunday morning, setting the stage for favorable jet
dynamics and lift across our area most of Sunday. Models are in
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will likely develop
within favored left exit region of approaching jet streak this
evening and especially overnight into Sunday morning. The greatest
concentration of precipitation seems most likely to occur across
portions of southwest and west central Nebraska later tonight,
expanding east into central Nebraska Sunday morning. However, all
areas stand a decent chance for some rainfall due to the large
scale lift and available moisture. Prior to the convection later
tonight into Sunday, there is at least some chance that some
convection could survive off the higher terrain and move into
portions of western NE early this evening, but the better chances
will come after mid evening into the overnight.

The upper low will shift eastward into the Panhandle Sunday.
SPC continues a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, but it is
uncertain how the severe risk will play out. Abundant cloud cover
should persist through the day, along with fairly widespread
convection, especially during the morning. If any cloud breaks
develop during the afternoon, then shear and a weak boundary could
focus some strong convection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

The upper low migrates into north central NE Sunday night into
Monday. Confidence is low on heavy rain materializing, and seems
more likely to occur east and southeast of the area. With that said,
still expecting showers and thunderstorms to be likely,
right near and ahead of the upper low center across north central
into central Nebraska.

Upper low should move east of the area Monday night, with weak upper
level ridging bringing dry and warmer weather to the area midweek.
Models do show another long wave trough developing into the western
CONUS late in the week and next weekend. At this point it looks
quite warm and capped ahead of the trough Friday into Saturday. So
we'll keep it warm and only slight chance for any thunderstorms.
GEFS indicating H850mb temps of 26 to 31C, so it could end up being
hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

An upper level across the northen Rockies will move east tonight
and into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely from 04z this evening through 00z Sunday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-242100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 /300 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and strong
winds will be possible later this evening and overnight. The area
of concern will be mainly west of a line from Merriman through
North Platte and Curtis.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Monday as an upper level low
moves through the region. Locally heavy rain could develop in
spots, as well as the potential for a few severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
444 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ004-094-232330-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
444 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 444 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Batesland, or 17 miles northeast of Gordon, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merriman, Hoover Lake, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Irwin,
Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Bayonne and Shell Lake
State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 113 and 137.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 215 and 227.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10176 4280 10153 4273 10204 4300 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 318DEG 24KT 4303 10206

CDC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ005-094-240030-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
651 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT/630 PM MDT/...

At 651 PM CDT/551 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles west of Merritt Reservoir, or 29 miles southwest
of Valentine, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merritt Reservoir, Big Alkali Lake State Wildlife Management Area and
Steer Creek Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 94 and 124.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 197 and 198.

LAT...LON 4251 10126 4278 10110 4269 10051 4231 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 295DEG 28KT 4267 10106

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ005-094-240115-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT/715 PM MDT/...

At 728 PM CDT/628 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Merritt Reservoir, or 25 miles
southwest of Valentine, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, Highway 83 crossing Goose Creek
and Highway 83 crossing the North Loup River.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 170 and 189.

LAT...LON 4239 10089 4263 10080 4246 10023 4222 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 300DEG 24KT 4255 10078

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
745 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ004-022>024-094-240230-
Sheridan NE-Hooker NE-Grant NE-Western Cherry NE-Garden NE-
745 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY...GRANT...
NORTHWESTERN HOOKER...NORTHEASTERN GARDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 745 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles north of Ashby to 6 miles south of
Ellsworth. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hyannis, Ashby, Whitman, Duluth, Dipping Vat Meadow, Finnegan Lake,
Swede Lake, Kincaid Lake, Wild Horse Flats, Mother Lake, Bingham,
Hire, Dominick Lake, Jerry Lake, Whitman Road crossing the North
Branch of the Middle Loup River, Pratt Lake and Spring Valley Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 121 and 165.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 139 and 177.

LAT...LON 4221 10121 4175 10173 4187 10240 4228 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 282DEG 28KT 4221 10197 4197 10224

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
747 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

NEZ022-240230-
Garden NE-
747 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM MDT...

At 747 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, or 21
miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Lisco, Richardson Lake, Rackett, Dogtown Flats, Bluewater
Battlefield State Historical Park and Sugar Loaf Hill.

LAT...LON 4166 10209 4128 10218 4144 10262 4176 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 282DEG 28KT 4166 10258

CDC