Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Tonight and Saturday.

This evening's severe weather threat remains the primary forecast
focus.  Extreme wind, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible
generally along and east of Highway 83 line from North Platte to
Valentine, though the greatest risk of severe weather is forecast
across north central Nebraska.

The amplified upper ridge centered over the Central CONUS will break
down to the east this afternoon and evening as a significant trough
advances across the Northern Rockies.  At the surface a cold front
was analyzed over the western Panhandle north to a deepening
surface low centered near the Black Hills.  Southeasterly winds have
transported juicy dew points well into the upper 60s across much of
the forecast area.  The 18z observation from KLBF showed a TD of
73F.  With highs in the mid 80s, convective energy is already
exceeding 3000 J/KG and expected to reach upwards to 4k J/KG in some
areas. Strong diabatic heating will erode the remaining CIN with
initial convective storms expected shortly after 20z this afternoon
across northern Nebraska. Supercells are expected early in the
evolution which may include tornadic supercells that interact with
any lingering boundary.  At this point, the warm front appears
largely north of the area, but hand analysis indicates several weak
wind shift/boundaries which will need to be watched.  Given the
strongly unstable atmosphere, large hail is expected, some of which
may be as large as baseballs. The storms will quickly congeal and
build south as a low level jet strengthens.  The complex will
transition to an extreme wind threat capable of hurricane force
winds.

The speed of the complex will largely limit the flood potential, but
PWATS are running 90Th percentile for climatological records, so
locally heavy rain would be possible if training were to occur.  The
most likely location of training would be on the southern end of the
line with the interaction of the LLJ. Because several models are
showing some up growth to the south, we expanded out POP coverage
to include Lincoln county, but at that on 30% chance.

Cooler and quite breezy conditions are expected Saturday behind the
cold front.  Could see some gusts from the northwest nearing 30 mph
at times. Otherwise much drier air moving in with dew points falling
into the mid 30s and 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected
under sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Abbreviated due to expected severe weather threat.  Upper level
ridging will expand across the plains next week.  Dry and warm
conditions will prevail, though sufficient instability in the
troposphere will provide for at least an isolated risk of
thunderstorms when disturbances rotate through.  Sunday night
through Monday appears to bring a disturbance to our south with the
next Tuesday afternoon/evening and Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Visual Flight Rules outside convective complex across north
central Nebraska in advance of the dryline. Short term model
solutions close where ongoing convection east of a line from
Springview, Atkinsons, Anselmo and Callaway will be the focus
and should move east possibly by 8 pm CDT. Moisture is limited
further west where dewpoints are now in the 30s. Questionable how
much additional convection may develop in the west once the
convection moves out of Central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Keck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022330-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018 /516 PM MDT Fri Jun 1 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are expected through 10 pm CDT for north
central Nebraska east of a line from Johnstown to Callaway. The hazards
include large hail in excess of 2 inches and damaging winds to 75
mph or higher with tornadoes possible.

Additional strong thunderstorm development is possible further west
to Highway 83 from Valentine to Maywood, where the severe threat
cannot be ruled out at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Beyond tonight the severe threat is low through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested across north central Nebraska.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Keck

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
819 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             8 N BURWELL             41.90N 99.13W
06/01/2018  M1.75 INCH       GARFIELD           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT WITH PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JURGENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
822 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             5 NW BURWELL            41.83N 99.20W
06/01/2018  E2.00 INCH       GARFIELD           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT RELAYED VIA GARFIELD COUNTY SHERIFF.

&&

JURGENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
829 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 AM     HAIL             3 S SARGENT             41.60N 99.37W
06/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

THORNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
831 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             3 S SARGENT             41.60N 99.37W
06/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

THORNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
834 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

NEZ038-020200-
Custer NE-
834 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

At 834 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oconto to 13 miles west of Eddyville.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oconto, Burr Oak, Buckeye, Pressey State Wildlife Management Area and
Cumro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4122 9976 4118 9938 4104 9950 4105 9995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 284DEG 18KT 4121 9971 4104 9988

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             3 WNW BERWYN            41.37N 99.55W
06/01/2018  E1.25 INCH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JURGENSEN