Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Key West, FL

960 
WHUS42 KKEY 202045
CFWKEY

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
345 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

FLZ076-211000-
/O.CAN.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KKEY.CF.Y.0001.181220T2045Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-
345 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Gale-force westerly breezes will develop
  tonight across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, and
  persist through Friday. This will help pile up water in Florida
  Bay, resulting in coastal flooding in Bayside communities of the
  upper Florida Keys, especially those along Blackwater and
  Buttonwood Sounds, between Mile Marker 100 and 105. By Friday
  afternoon and evening, total water levels may reach 3 to 4.5
  feet above mean sea level, or 1 to 2.5 feet above the lowest
  elevation streets and yards. Some streets may become impassible.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Saturday morning, peaking Friday
  afternoon and evening. Water levels will slowly subside 
  Saturday for the most troublesome communities Bayside of Key 
  Largo. 

* IMPACTS...Communities along Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin,
  Blackwater Sound, and Jewfish Creek can expect peak inundation
  to reach 1 to 2.5 feet above ground, rendering some neighborhood
  streets impassable. Some storm drains will overflow, and many
  docks and seawalls will be overtopped.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
&&

$$

FLZ077-078-211000-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
345 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Tide gauges across the Florida Keys indicate
  observed water levels are running about a foot above the
  predicted tide. Persistent and strong southwest breezes late
  this afternoon and this evening may increase these tidal
  anomalies, especially across Atlantic facing shores of the
  island chain. Gale-force westerly breezes tonight will
  exacerbate coastal flooding impacts along the north side of the
  Lower Keys, through the Gulf and Bayside communities of the
  Middle and Upper Keys.  

* TIMING...For the Lower Keys and western portions of the Middle 
  Keys, late this evening through Friday afternoon. For eastern 
  portions of the Middle Keys and the Upper Keys, early Friday 
  morning through Saturday morning, peaking Friday afternoon and 
  evening. Water levels will slowly subside Saturday for the 
  most troublesome communities Bayside of Key Largo. 

* IMPACTS...Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots 
  is likely. Some storm drains will overflow, and many docks and 
  seawalls will be overtopped. 

$$

Kasper

533 
WHUS42 KKEY 210946
CFWKEY

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
446 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

FLZ076-212200-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-
446 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Gale-force westerly breezes will help pile up
  water in Florida Bay, resulting in coastal flooding in Bayside
  communities of the upper Florida Keys, especially those along
  Blackwater, Little Blackwater, and Buttonwood Sounds. By this
  afternoon and evening, total water levels may reach 3 to 4.5
  feet above mean sea level, or 1 to 2.5 feet above the lowest
  elevation streets and yards. Some streets may become impassible.

* TIMING...This morning through Saturday morning, peaking this 
  afternoon and evening. Water levels will slowly subside Saturday
  for the most troublesome communities Bayside of Key Largo. 

* IMPACTS...Communities along Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin, 
  Blackwater Sound, and Jewfish Creek can expect peak inundation 
  to reach 1 to 2.5 feet above ground, rendering some 
  neighborhood streets impassable. Some storm drains will 
  overflow, and many docks and seawalls will be overtopped. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

FLZ077-078-212200-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
446 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Tide gauges across the Florida Keys indicate
  observed water levels are running about a foot above the
  predicted tide. Gale-force westerly breezes will exacerbate
  coastal flooding impacts along the north side of the Lower Keys,
  through the Gulf and Bayside communities of the Middle and
  western most Upper Keys. 

* TIMING...For the Lower Keys and western portions of the Middle
  Keys, this morning through this evening. For eastern portions of
  the Middle Keys and the western most Upper Keys, this morning
  through Saturday morning, peaking this afternoon and evening.
  Water levels will slowly subside by Saturday. 

* IMPACTS...Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots
  is possible. Some storm drains will overflow, and some docks 
  and seawalls will be overtopped. 

$$

CLR

287 
WHUS42 KKEY 211545
CFWKEY

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
1045 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

FLZ076-212200-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-
1045 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Gale-force westerly breezes will help pile up
  water in Florida Bay, resulting in coastal flooding in Bayside
  communities of the upper Florida Keys, especially those along
  Blackwater, Little Blackwater, and Buttonwood Sounds. By this
  evening, total water levels may reach 3.0 to 3.5 feet above 
  mean sea level, or 1 to 1.5 feet above the lowest elevation 
  streets and yards. Some streets may become impassible.
  

* TIMING...Continuing this afternoon through Saturday morning,
  peaking this evening. Water levels will slowly subside Saturday
  for the most coastal flood prone communities Bayside of Key 
  Largo.

* IMPACTS...Communities along Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin,
  Blackwater Sound, and Jewfish Creek can expect peak inundation
  to reach 1 to 1.5 feet above ground, rendering some 
  neighborhood streets impassable. Some storm drains will 
  overflow, and many docks and seawalls will be overtopped. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

FLZ077-078-212200-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
1045 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Tide gauges across the Florida Keys 
  indicate observed water levels are running about a foot above 
  the predicted tide. Gale-force westerly breezes will 
  exacerbate coastal flooding impacts along the north side of 
  the Lower Keys, through the Gulf and Bayside communities of 
  the Middle and western most Upper Keys. 

* TIMING...For the Lower Keys and western portions of the Middle
  Keys, this afternoon through this evening. For eastern portions
  of the Middle Keys and the western most Upper Keys, this 
  morning through Saturday morning, peaking this afternoon and 
  evening. Water levels will slowly subside by Saturday. 

* IMPACTS...Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots 
  is possible. Some storm drains will overflow, and some docks 
  and seawalls will be overtopped. 

$$

951 
WHUS42 KKEY 212140
CFWKEY

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
440 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

FLZ076-220545-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-
440 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Gale-force westerly breezes continues to pile
  up water in Florida Bay, resulting in coastal flooding in
  Bayside communities of the upper Florida Keys, especially along
  Blackwater, Little Blackwater, and Buttonwood Sounds. Total
  water levels may reach 3.0 to 3.5 feet above mean sea level, or
  1 to 1.5 feet above the lowest elevation streets and yards.
 
* TIMING...Continuing this evening through Saturday morning, 
  peaking this evening. Water levels will slowly subside Saturday 
  for the most coastal flood prone communities Bayside of Key 
  Largo. 

* IMPACTS...Communities along Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin,
  Blackwater Sound, and Jewfish Creek can expect some 
  neighborhood streets impassable. Some storm drains will 
  overflow, and many docks and seawalls will be overtopped. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

FLZ077-078-220545-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
440 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS TONIGHT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Tide gauges across the Florida Keys 
  indicate observed water levels are running about a foot above 
  the predicted tide. Gale-force westerly breezes will 
  exacerbate coastal flooding impacts along the north side of 
  the Lower Keys, through the Gulf and Bayside communities of 
  the Middle and western most Upper Keys. 

* TIMING...For the Lower Keys and western portions of the Middle 
  Keys, this afternoon through this evening. For eastern 
  portions of the Middle Keys and the western most Upper Keys, 
  this morning through Saturday morning, peaking this afternoon 
  and evening. Water levels will slowly subside by Saturday. 

* IMPACTS...Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots 
  is possible. Some storm drains will overflow, and some docks 
  and seawalls will be overtopped. 

$$

739 
WHUS42 KKEY 220456
CFWKEY

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

FLZ077-078-220600-
/O.CAN.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...Coastal Flood Statement cancelled...

The coastal flood impacts for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys
have abated. 

$$

FLZ076-221000-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-181222T1000Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS...

* COASTAL FLOODING...Strong northwesterly breezes continue to pile
  up water in Florida Bay, resulting in coastal flooding in
  Bayside communities of the upper Florida Keys, especially along
  Blackwater, Little Blackwater, and Buttonwood Sounds. Total
  water levels have likely peaked at 3.0 to 3.5 feet above mean
  sea level, or 1 to 1.5 feet above the lowest elevation streets
  and yards. Reliable reports from Adams Drive indicate water
  levels within six inches of entering ground level homes.

* TIMING...Continuing overnight, with water levels slowly 
  subsiding Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Communities along Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin,
  Blackwater Sound, and Jewfish Creek can expect some neighborhood
  streets to remain impassable for the next several hours. Some 
  storm drains will overflow, and many docks and seawalls will be 
  overtopped. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

CLR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
454 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...STORMS...GALES...STRONG FRONT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A high impact weather event with multiple hazards to deal with
including strong to severe thunderstorms, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous marine conditions, remains on track to
affect the Keys from today through Friday.

Early on this Thursday morning, breezy and warm conditions
prevail across the Keys. Southeast to south winds have increased
during the night, reaching as high as 23 knots sustained this past
hour at Key West. These winds are transporting a warm and moist
airmass northward across the region, with dewpoints climbing into
the lower 70s. Air temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper
70s. KBYX radar detects scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the eastern Straits and west of the Dry Tortugas, with activity
more numerous at the far western extreme of radar range over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Surface analysis shows broad but intensifying low pressure along
the northern Gulf Coast, while water vapor imagery reveals a deep
trough aloft digging into the western Gulf. Infrared imagery and
lightning detection shows several lines and clusters of
thunderstorms in the central and eastern Gulf ahead of and along
the cold front extending south from the surface low.

There is no significant change to our forecast reasoning or
expectations for the unfolding weather event. As the mid/upper
trough deepens and moves eastward today and tonight, the
associated surface low will intensify and track slowly northeast
across the Florida panhandle and Georgia, then accelerate
northeast along the Appalachians on Friday and Friday night. These
developments will bring rapid and dramatic weather changes to the
Keys during the next 24 hours. Southerly winds will continue to
increase today, although the dry layer observed in the 00Z Key
West sounding will take some time to modify, and should keep
convective coverage isolated over the Keys and adjacent waters
during the morning and midday hours. We will need to watch any
isolated storms that may develop as an increasingly strong
vertical wind profile will favor organized convection. Showers and
storms will be most likely over the far western Straits and
offshore Gulf waters around the Dry Tortugas during this time.

The convection currently over the Gulf is expected to organize
into an intense squall line. This squall line, possibly with
embedded severe cells, should approach the Dry Tortugas by midday
or early afternoon, then move west to east through the Keys during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Note that exact timing
remains somewhat uncertain. Strong/gusty winds are likely as the
squall line moves through, and any embedded severe storms could
produce damaging winds, along with a slight risk for an isolated
waterspout or tornado. Thereafter, bona fide westerly gales will
develop by sunrise Friday as the intense low organizes further and
migrates northeastward. The blow, as it intense as it will be,
will be short-lived, and winds will begin laying down Friday
night, then drop off rapidly on Saturday. Precip activity should
trail off to scattered showers late tonight into Friday morning,
then down to isolated showers by Friday afternoon.

A cool and dry weekend is in store, as high pressure settles over
the Florida peninsula with gentle northeast breezes over the Keys.
By Christmas Eve, winds will be turning easterly again, with
associated warmer weather and slight shower chances returning for
Christmas Day.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast to south winds have steadily increased overnight across
the Keys coastal waters, reaching 20 knots at some of the
reporting sites during the past couple of hours. A Gale Warning
has been issued for all of the Keys coastal waters. Weather will
change rapidly today into this evening, with strong to near gale
south to southwest breezes turning west by late. An intense squall
line likely will move through Keys coastal waters during the
afternoon and evening, with a slight risk for a few severe
thunderstorms. South to southwest winds will increase today with
frequent gusts to near gale force becoming likely, then full on
westerly gales are expected tonight and Friday. Very large seas
are also expected during this event. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT through Friday. Winds will decrease quickly late Friday night
and Saturday, although the large seas over the Straits and deep
Gulf waters will not fully subside until Sunday.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
Persistent and strong westerly winds will cause Coastal Flooding
impacts from the north side of the Lower Keys through the Gulf
side and Bayside communities of the Middle and Upper Keys late
Thursday night through Friday night. Total water levels may reach
3 to 4.5 feet above mean sea level for the Bayside communities of
the eastern Middle Keys and the Upper Keys Friday and Friday
night. The maximum water levels likely will occur within
Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin, and Blackwater Sound, around the
times of high tide. Water levels will begin to slowly subside on
Saturday. See the latest Coastal Flood Statement for additional
details. A Coastal Flood Warning may be required for the Middle
and Upper Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though a short period
of MVFR ceilings are likely in association with a squall line later
in the forecast period. Cross-winds are a concern as gusty
southeasterly winds gradually veer to the south and increase in
magnitude today. In the afternoon sustained winds could approach 25-
30 knots with gusts to near 35 knots. During the evening a strong
cold front will sweep across the Keys from west to east, accompanied
by the aforementioned squall line and a shift to west-southwesterly
winds (remaining strong). For now the most likely impactful period
of weather is indicated by TEMPO groups, as there is still some
uncertainty in exact arrival of the line of thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Gale Warning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Coastal Flooding.....CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
519 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-211030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
519 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A strong cold front is expected to blast through the Florida Keys
and adjacent coastal waters during the afternoon and evening
hours. This front is expected to bring multiple weather hazards
to the Keys for today through Friday evening, including strong to
severe thunderstorms, strong winds on land with gales likely on
the coastal waters, and possible coastal flooding on the Gulf and
Bayside.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front will be highest across the Keys this afternoon and
tonight. These thunderstorms are expected to organize into a
squall line which is forecast to move through the Keys during the
late afternoon or evening hours. The primary hazards with any
thunderstorms will be strong, gusty and shifting winds along with
lightning strikes. Some of the thunderstorms, either embedded
within the squall line or developing out ahead of the line, could
become severe with damaging winds and large hail. Isolated
waterspouts will also be possible, and there is a slight risk for
tornadoes as well. The Storm Prediction Center continues to
include all of South Florida and the Keys within a severe
thunderstorm risk area for today into tonight.

On land, gusty south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30
mph today, then shift toward the west and increase to 25 to 30
mph tonight. This will probably require a Wind Advisory to be
issued later today or tonight.

These persistent and strong westerly winds will cause Coastal
Flooding impacts from the north side of the Lower Keys through the
Gulf side and Bayside communities of the Middle and Upper Keys
beginning late tonight. See the latest Coastal Flood Statement
for additional details.

A Gale Warning has been issued for all of the Keys coastal
waters, and SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT today through
Friday. Weather will change rapidly today into tonight. South to
southwest winds will increase today with frequent gusts to near
gale force becoming likely, then full on westerly gales are
expected tonight. An intense squall line likely will move through
Keys coastal waters during the afternoon and evening, with a
slight risk for a few severe thunderstorms. Very large seas are
also expected during this event.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Strong sustained west winds around 30 mph with gusts near
40 mph are expected along the Keys island chain on Friday. This
will require a Wind Advisory to be issued.

The strong westerly winds will cause Coastal Flooding impacts to
continue from the north side of the Lower Keys through the Gulf
side and Bayside communities of the Middle and Upper Keys Friday
and Friday night. Total water levels may reach 3 to 4.5 feet
above mean sea level for the Bayside communities of the eastern
Middle Keys and the Upper Keys Friday and Friday night. The
maximum water levels likely will occur within Buttonwood Sound,
Tarpon Basin, and Blackwater Sound, around the times of high tide.
Water levels will begin to slowly subside on Saturday. See the
latest Coastal Flood Statement for additional details. A Coastal
Flood Warning may be required for the Middle and Upper Keys.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT on Friday, when westerly gale
conditions are expected. Very large seas will peak on Friday at
11 to 19 feet across the Straits of Florida and deep waters of the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, 5 to 8 feet across Hawk Channel
inside the reef, and 4 to 8 feet across the Gulf waters inside
five fathoms.

Winds should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels on the Keys
coastal waters Saturday morning, but lingering high seas will
remain above 7 feet over the Florida Straits and deep waters of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday afternoon or
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters and emergency management officials are
encouraged to report severe thunderstorms, waterspouts, strong
winds, heavy rainfall, hail or coastal flooding to the National
Weather Service Forecast Office in Key West.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
515 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

FLZ076>078-201215-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Including the cities of Key Largo, Marathon, and Key West
515 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE KEYS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...

A strong cold front is expected to blast through the Florida Keys
and adjacent coastal waters during the afternoon and evening
hours. This front is expected to bring multiple weather hazards
to the Keys through Friday evening, including strong to severe
thunderstorms, strong winds on land with gales likely on the
coastal waters, and possible coastal flooding on the Gulf and
Bayside.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front will be highest across the Keys this afternoon and
tonight. These thunderstorms are expected to organize into a
squall line which is forecast to move through the Keys during the
late afternoon or evening hours. The primary hazards with any
thunderstorms will be strong, gusty and shifting winds along with
lightning strikes. Some of the thunderstorms, either embedded
within the squall line or developing out ahead of the line, could
become severe with damaging winds and large hail. Isolated
waterspouts will also be possible, and there is a slight risk for
tornadoes as well. The Storm Prediction Center continues to
include all of South Florida and the Keys within a severe
thunderstorm risk area for today into tonight.

On land, gusty south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30
mph today, then shift toward the west and increase to 25 to 30
mph tonight. Strong sustained west winds around 30 mph with gusts
near 40 mph are expected on Friday. This will require a Wind
Advisory to be issued.

These persistent and strong westerly winds will cause Coastal
Flooding impacts from the north side of the Lower Keys through the
Gulf side and Bayside communities of the Middle and Upper Keys
late tonight through Friday night. Total water levels may reach 3
to 4.5 feet above mean sea level for the Bayside communities of
the eastern Middle Keys and the Upper Keys Friday and Friday
night. The maximum water levels likely will occur within
Buttonwood Sound, Tarpon Basin, and Blackwater Sound, around the
times of high tide. Water levels will begin to slowly subside on
Saturday. See the latest Coastal Flood Statement for additional
details. A Coastal Flood Warning may be required for the Middle
and Upper Keys.

Over the Keys coastal waters, southeast to south winds have
steadily increased overnight. A Gale Warning has been issued for
all of the Keys coastal waters, and SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT through Friday. Weather will change rapidly today into
tonight. South to southwest winds will increase today with
frequent gusts to near gale force becoming likely, then full on
westerly gales are expected tonight and Friday. An intense squall
line likely will move through Keys coastal waters during the
afternoon and evening, with a slight risk for a few severe
thunderstorms. Very large seas are also expected during this
event, peaking on Friday at 11 to 19 feet across the Straits of
Florida and deep waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, 5 to 8
feet across Hawk Channel inside the reef, and 4 to 8 feet across
the Gulf waters inside five fathoms.

Listen to NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for the latest weather
information, including possible warnings. In addition, please
remember to turn on your radio's severe weather tone activation
feature. Also visit your Florida Keys National Weather Service on
the web at www.weather.gov/keywest.

Jacobson