Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
523 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is approaching the
forecast area from the west. At this time, should these storms
hold together, they would begin to affect portions of the area
along and north of a line from Stanton to Campton to Salyersville
to Canada in Pike county. The question now will be whether or not
these storms will be able to maintain their current intensity as
they move over a portion of the area that received quite a bit of
rainfall this morning. Will keep severe wording in the grids and
the zone forecast text product until we see firm evidence that the
ongoing storms can not maintain current strength or that new
activity will not be able to reach severe limits. For now it will
be a matter watching and seeing what happens as ongoing storms
move into our area. At this time, we feel that the primary threats
with any strong to severe storms will be damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A new concern
is the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, especially for
areas that receive alot of rain this morning. A flash flood watch
is in effect to address this issue through midnight tonight. At
this time, multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected to
move across the area this afternoon through Saturday night. The
trigger for this activity will be an area of low pressure that
will be moving slowly across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions, and the surface cold front associated with it.

Temperatures should bottom out the next two nights at near normal
values in the mid to upper 60s. Highs on Saturday will depend on
the amount of cloud cover and precipitation we experience, but
should generally be well below normal, with max values ranging
from the upper 70s in our north, to the lower 80s everywhere else.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 523 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

An amplified long wave pattern will remain in place across the
country, as ridging dominates across the southwestern CONUS, while
troughing rules east of the Mississippi River. An upper level low
will gradually move south from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast
by late Tuesday, keeping unsettled weather across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. Another trough will be moving east within the
northern stream across south central Canada, bringing another
surface cold front through our region into Wednesday. The cold
front will then linger in the vicinity of the area through Friday,
allowing for a continued threat of chance POPs.

Likely POPs will be on tap as the upper level and surface lows
draw closest to the region. Depending on how much rainfall occurs
leading up to this system, some localized flooding may be possible
late this weekend. POPs then become more diurnally influenced
into next week, as the front approaches and eventually stalls from
mid-week onward. Temperatures will start out below normal for the
weekend and then trend more towards normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

As a surface low pressure has advanced towards the Commonwealth
from the west this morning, showers and thunderstorms overspread
the northernmost TAF sites of SYM, JKL, and SJS. A second round of
storms will affect the area this evening, although timing is
still a bit uncertain at this time. Have allowed for a TEMPO group
of IFR to show the advancement of this line later this evening.
Winds will generally be light, but will increase with storms to
about 20 kts. Wind gusts could potentially reach 35 kts or greater
with this line. The other concern towards the end of the TAF
period will be fog development, particularly in areas with recent
rains from during the day and evening. Have allowed for MVFR
conditions towards dawn to address this. The likelihood of showers
will remain high on Saturday as the low pressure system moves even
closer to our region.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ044-050>052-
060-104-106.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CGAL/GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106-212345-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Frenchburg, Sandy Hook,
and West Liberty
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening. The
primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail. An isolated
tornado is also possible. Additionally, flash flooding will be a
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through late this evening.

KYZ058-059-068-069-080-107>120-212345-
Estill-Powell-Rockcastle-Jackson-Laurel-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-
Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-
Pike-
Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, London, Paintsville,
Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville,
Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester,
Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City,
Pikeville, and South Williamson
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening. The
primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail. An isolated
tornado is also possible. Additionally, isolated flash flooding
will be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening.

KYZ079-083>088-212345-
Pulaski-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, and Harlan
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large
hail. An isolated tornado is also possible. Additionally, isolated
flash flooding will be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening.

AR/GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ058-069-108-111-112-114-202200-
Jackson-Lee-Breathitt-Estill-Owsley-Wolfe-
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OWSLEY...ESTILL...
NORTHERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...LEE AND WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 526 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fox, or 7 miles
west of Irvine, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible well ahead of
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Irvine, Jackson, Beattyville, Campton, Booneville, Simpson,
Fincastle, Ravenna, Pilot, Turin, White Ash, Burkhart, Lexie, Leeco,
Kimbrell, Fillmore, Cowcreek, Earnestville, Pine Ridge and Wiseman
Crossing Station.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern and east central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3783 8397 3780 8397 3776 8391 3776 8378
      3772 8372 3781 8364 3780 8336 3771 8326
      3742 8343 3749 8419 3755 8419 3757 8409
      3764 8413 3767 8409 3774 8408 3778 8411
      3781 8408 3782 8410 3781 8412 3784 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 282DEG 38KT 3774 8409

GREIF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
542 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIDEVIEW                38.11N 84.04W
07/20/2018                   MONTGOMERY         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED. DAMAGE TO A BARN AS WELL AS ROOFS
            OF OTHER OUTBUILDINGS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
            460 AND CHILES HIGHWAY.

&&

GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ058-059-108-111-202245-
Lee-Estill-Wolfe-Powell-
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT POWELL...ESTILL...LEE
AND WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 555 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Standing
Rock, or 8 miles west of Campton, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Irvine, Beattyville, Campton, Clay City, Fincastle, Ravenna,
Pilot, White Ash, Bowen, Lexie, Leeco, Kimbrell, Fillmore, Pine
Ridge, Wiseman Crossing Station, Winston, Patsey, Vaughns Mill and
Alumbaugh.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern and east central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3780 8336 3774 8330 3768 8335 3770 8339
      3769 8342 3763 8346 3762 8349 3764 8350
      3764 8352 3754 8357 3760 8411 3764 8413
      3767 8409 3774 8410 3775 8408 3777 8410
      3785 8406 3784 8400 3787 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 287DEG 34KT 3771 8370

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
601 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ106-107-109-110-119-202245-
Martin-Floyd-Johnson-Magoffin-Morgan-
601 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARTIN...EAST CENTRAL MORGAN...
JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN FLOYD AND NORTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...

At 600 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Redbush, or 8
miles southwest of Blaine, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Inez, Moon, Oaklawn Estates, Davella,
Falcon, Whitehouse, Wonnie, Collista, West Van Lear, Williamsport,
Milo, Gillem Branch, Redbush, Relief, Ever, Auxier, Perlie and Niles.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3769 8253 3768 8258 3781 8322 3800 8306
      3801 8303 3796 8300 3800 8296 3800 8293
      3788 8262 3789 8260 3792 8260 3795 8258
      3793 8248 3790 8247 3791 8246 3790 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 290DEG 38KT 3794 8297

GREIF