Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
827 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Upped PoPs to categorical in the Bluegrass region where round 1
sits. Expect this to continue propagating east/northeast through
this morning, with afternoon/evening development dependent on how
mesoscale features play out from this morning's activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning across
western Kentucky into central Indiana in response to moisture
recovery on the southeastern flank of a stacked low pressure
system rotating through southern Wisconsin. Will likely see some
of this along with some additional development across the
Bluegrass region after dawn as it progresses east/northeast. This
round of convection should come to an end later this morning into
early this afternoon, providing for a period of diabatic heating
through mid-late afternoon. This will set the stage for increasing
instability by mid-late afternoon, which when combined with
continued height falls downstream of the upper low migrating
toward the southern shores of Lake Michigan, will spell a round of
widespread thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening.

The locales with the best chance for seeing severe thunderstorms,
consisting of primarily damaging winds and secondarily large hail,
will be those along and west of a Morehead to Williamsburg line.
This will be where the greatest instability materializes with
diurnal heating and better veered south/southwest winds usher in
richer moisture. Additionally, a period may exist for isolated
tornado development through early this evening as 0-1 km shear
vectors increase to around 25 knots while 0-6 km shear vectors
become orthogonal to the incoming line of convection and any
subsequent outflow boundaries. A more backed south/southeast
component to the low level wind field farther east into the
higher terrain should help hinder a greater threat for more robust
updrafts. The Lake Cumberland region will see the best chances
for any discrete storms as they will be largely unperturbed from
earlier day convection, unlike much of the Bluegrass region. Any
large hail will therefore likely occur west of the local
Interstate 75 corridor as deep layer shear increases to near 30 or
perhaps up to 35 knots this evening. By mid-late evening, cold
pool processes should largely overwhelm the available shear as a
progressive west to east moving line of storms sweeps through
eastern Kentucky.

Conditions should quiet down overnight into Saturday morning for
the most part. However, may still see isolated to scattered
showers and embedded storms given the moist airmass in place and
propagation of the nearby large scale disturbance into the Ohio
Valley. Daytime heating will help to kick off numerous
showers/storms again during the day on Saturday. The threat for
any severe weather will be conditional on what occurs south and
east of the Commonwealth as this may cut eastern Kentucky off from
the greater instability. May also see a dry slot develop across
portions of the Coal Fields on the southern flank of the low
pressure system. The best chance for any strong storms will be
in southeast Kentucky nearer the greater available instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Upper level low will shift south over Kentucky Saturday night,
before slowly moving further south on Sunday. This system will
then slowly fizzle out into next week. The best chances for rain
may come on Saturday night into Sunday as deep moisture and lift
is in place for a soaking rainfall. Hard to judge how many
thunderstorms we will see given the abundance of cloud cover, but
will maintain a small chance for storms. Did undercut guidance a
bit on highs Sunday given the cloud cover and elevated rain
chances. As we head into next week, shower and storm chances
should be more focused during the afternoon/evening peak heating
period, as forcing diminishes. However, models continue to provide
chances through at least next Thursday each day and no reason to
doubt this given the wet pattern we have been in. Temperatures
should rebound a bit going into next week with highs back into the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 827 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

Main threat through the period will be multiple rounds of
thunderstorms moving across the eastern Kentucky airspace today
into tonight. The first round will occur this morning into early
afternoon, with the second and more robust round likely set for
late afternoon or possibly later this evening. Storms from late
this afternoon through this evening will have the potential to
produce severe and erratic wind gusts in excess of 50 knots, with
the greatest potential for these west of a line from KBYL to KSYM.
Still uncertainty in exact timing/placement of storms, but have
inserted prevailing TSRA for all sites this evening coinciding
with the most widespread coverage of storms. Winds within the
lowest 2000 feet will likely increase to 30-40 knots or greater at
times, but with these largely being driven by thunderstorms, will
forgo mention of any non-convective low level wind shear. Any
sub-VFR conditions will be determined by storms moving overhead,
with the potential for fog depending on clearing mainly near or
beyond 06Z tonight. Have inserted some MVFR visibilities given
expected TSRA for all sites and some fog developing due to the
abundant near-surface moisture overnight. Outside of thunderstorms,
south/southeast winds will veer south/southwesterly this
afternoon as speeds generally remain near or below 10 knots with
periodic higher gusts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
445 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
445 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Some of the storms
late this afternoon and evening could become severe, producing
damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are expected from Saturday through Thursday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage, hail, or heavy
rainfall today.

GUSEMAN/KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ044-051-052-201430-
Rowan-Fleming-Bath-
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BATH...
FLEMING AND ROWAN COUNTIES...

At 958 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Poplar
Plains, or near Flemingsburg, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morehead, Flemingsburg, Sharpsburg, Fairview, Cranston, Ramey, Pecks
Ridge, Reynoldsville, Wyoming, Elliottville, Moore's Ferry, Triplett,
Christy, Odessa, Hilda, Pebble, Sharkey, Slate Valley, Muses Mills
and Wallingford.

LAT...LON 3843 8358 3840 8348 3838 8345 3840 8342
      3839 8340 3830 8333 3821 8330 3819 8326
      3819 8325 3818 8325 3817 8320 3815 8396
      3820 8397 3832 8384 3836 8388 3835 8390
      3837 8390 3836 8392 3845 8398 3848 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1358Z 265DEG 46KT 3833 8370

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1034 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ050>052-059-060-201500-
Rowan-Montgomery-Menifee-Bath-Powell-
1034 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN POWELL...
MONTGOMERY...BATH...NORTHWESTERN MENIFEE AND WEST CENTRAL ROWAN
COUNTIES...

At 1034 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Prewitt, or
over Mount Sterling, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Morehead, Stanton, Owingsville, Marshall,
Jeffersonville, Camargo, Sharpsburg, Salt Lick, Clay Lick, Ramey,
Levee, Cornwell, Peasticks, Rothwell, Olympia Springs, Flat Creek,
Bourbon Furnace, Prewitt and Crooks.

LAT...LON 3821 8370 3820 8370 3821 8369 3821 8368
      3820 8366 3817 8364 3820 8361 3819 8345
      3783 8382 3791 8399 3793 8397 3812 8408
      3817 8399 3823 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 299DEG 24KT 3805 8398

CGAL