Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front and surface high
pressure slowly pushing southward into the Upper Midwest, with
weaker surface high pressure placed in the Eastern US. The
convection has slowly started increasing this afternoon amid an
unstable and moist environment. The best POPs so far this
afternoon have generally been around Lake Cumberland and across
the Bluegrass. These will be primarily mesoscale dominated
processes through the afternoon and evening and therefore kept
POPs in the slight to chance range through the period.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly progress southward
toward the region late tonight into Friday. This along with slight
height falls will be the focus for convection for Friday and did
generally keep the better POPs along and south of I-64. This is
the area that stands to see the best potential for instability to
build ahead of the lifting associated with the boundary. This
boundary will slide southward and bring much drier airmass to
round out the period, with PWATs dropping below 1 inch through the
afternoon and evening hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

High pressure will build south for the weekend allowing for dry
and cooler conditions to be seen. The upper level ridge may break
down a bit by Sunday afternoon allowing for a few showers or
storms to develop in the Cumberland plateau into central Kentucky.
The 12z GFS is looking much more active next week, at least with
regards to afternoon convection. Thus, at least low end pops will
be introduced into each period from Sunday through Thursday. A
frontal boundary may drop in and stall over the region by mid
week, allowing for better chances of organized convection. While
temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 80s by
Sunday, they should generally remain around that level through
next week. This will keep the heat from becoming an issue again
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

Fog will bring sub-VFR conditions early this morning in many
valleys and where significant rain occurred late Wednesday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also bring sub-VFR
conditions to some locations this afternoon and tonight. Fog could
also bring restrictions in valleys again late tonight. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are forecast. Winds will be light (except near
thunderstorms).

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-062300-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible though this evening. Some of the
stronger storms could produce gusty winds and torrential rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday into early Friday
evening and again from Saturday through Wednesday during the
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DJ/KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     PAINTSVILLE             37.82N 82.81W
07/04/2018  E85.00 MPH       JOHNSON            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            DOWNTOWN PAINTSVILLE. WINDS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES, ONE ON
            A RESIDENTIAL BUILDING. HALF OF ROOF OF OFFICE BUILDING
            TORN OFF. CHURCH STEEPLE ALSO BLOWN OFF ROOF.

&&

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E PAINTSVILLE         37.82N 82.79W
07/04/2018  E85 MPH          JOHNSON            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EAST PAINTSVILLE. WINDS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES, ONE ON A
            RESIDENTIAL BUILDING.

&&

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
538 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

KYZ044-052215-
Fleming-
538 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FLEMING COUNTY...

At 537 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fairview, or 15
miles west of Flemingsburg, moving south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairview, Cowan and Ewing.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3847 8389 3833 8381 3832 8384 3834 8384
      3834 8386 3835 8386 3836 8388 3835 8390
      3836 8389 3836 8392 3842 8395 3844 8398
      3849 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 344DEG 17KT 3845 8402

GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
543 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

KYZ106-107-052215-
Johnson-Morgan-
543 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...

At 543 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gillem Branch,
or 7 miles southwest of Blaine, moving south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moon, Flatgap, Mima, Keaton, Barnrock, Winifred, Elna, Win, Ophir,
Gillem Branch, Redbush, Silverhill and Relief.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3798 8302 3796 8300 3800 8296 3797 8285
      3786 8284 3785 8299 3789 8304 3787 8304
      3787 8306 3789 8309 3801 8308 3800 8305
      3801 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 359DEG 17KT 3797 8297

GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
613 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

KYZ050-051-052245-
Montgomery-Bath-
613 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN BATH COUNTIES...

At 613 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Sharpsburg to near Winchester.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Winds of around 35 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Sharpsburg, Judy, Prewitt, Sideview, Grassy Lick,
Wades Mill, Bethel, Flat Creek, Stoops, Klondike and Ewington.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3826 8379 3796 8398 3812 8408 3814 8406
      3817 8399 3823 8393 3830 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 337DEG 17KT 3826 8395 3792 8418

GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
621 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

KYZ088-118-052245-
Harlan-Letcher-
621 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARLAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LETCHER COUNTIES...

At 620 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Big Black
Mountain, or 13 miles south of Whitesburg, moving southwest at 10
mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lynch, Benham, Rock House, Holmes Mill, Oven Fork, Clover, Clover
Fork, Lewis Creek, Eolia, Big Black Mountain, Partridge, Maggard and
Day.

LAT...LON 3679 8318 3711 8280 3713 8270 3712 8272
      3705 8272 3701 8279 3701 8283 3698 8287
      3693 8286 3688 8289 3685 8301 3685 8307
      3683 8310 3680 8310 3677 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 062DEG 10KT 3693 8290

CGAL